Charlotte Coca Cola 600 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings/ Driver Breakdowns
On Sunday, NASCAR will race at Charlotte in the Coca Cola 600. This crown jewel event is a test of endurance for the teams, the machines and some at home. This is a unique race in many ways. Not only is it the longest race of the year, it’s also broken up into four equal Stages of 100/100/100/100 laps. The Coca Cola 600 will start at 6PM on Sunday, and the race will transition into a night race in the second half of the event.
In terms of variables I want in a fantasy pick at Charlotte I want ….
1) A driver who’s performed at a high-level at 1.5 mile tracks in recent races, and in particular at low-wear tracks (Kansas, Las Vegas etc.). Here’s Stats Over The Last Five Races At Low-wear 1.5 Mile Tracks and here’s Total Speed Rankings Over The Last Five Races At Low-wear 1.5 Mile Tracks.
2) A driver who showed speed in practice and seemed happy with their car. Some drivers did some experimenting in practice, so I wouldn’t overreact to some things. Also keep in mind, that practice was held at essentially the start time of the race. Here’s Charlotte Practice Notes. Here’s 5 Lap Averages, 10 Lap Averages, 15 Lap Averages and 20 Lap Averages.
3) A driver who starts reasonably near the front. Here’s the Starting Lineup for Charlotte.
This year at ifantasyrace.com we’re committed to writing about the full field every week. Find out what Super Low Tier drivers are the best of the best in ….. “The Super Low Tier – Charlotte!”
Charlotte Fantasy NASCAR Rankings
1) Kyle Larson (Starting – 1st)
Charlotte Fantasy Spin – At Charlotte, Kyle Larson will be the driver to beat. Larson has been the class of the field at 1.5 mile tracks this year, and at the two low-wear 1.5’s which have an elevated level of correlation there’s no debate he was the best. At Las Vegas, Larson led 103 laps and raced his way to victory lane. At Kansas, he dominated and led 132 laps but late cautions were his undoing and led to his 19th place finish. One attribute you have to love about Larson is how well the #5 team is running and heading into the weekend he has three straight runner-up results. In practice, Kyle Larson liked his car and was fast. In the session, Larson had the best 10 lap average and the 3rd best 15 lap average.
Charlotte Track History – Kyle Larson was strong at Charlotte back in his #42 days and over his last three incident free races he’s finished between 5th to 10th, and has a 7.3 average finish. In 2019 in his most recent Charlotte race, Larson was competitive, but crashed and finished 33rd. At the time of his demise on lap 316 he was running around the top 5. In the 2019 All-Star Race at Charlotte, Larson raced his way to victory lane. In the 2018 Coca Cola 600, Larson finished 7th. In the two races prior to that his finishes were 33rd (Crashed) and 5th (2016).
DraftKings $11,300 / FanDuel $14,000
2) Chase Elliott (Starting – 3rd)
Charlotte Fantasy Spin – Last year at Charlotte, nobody was better then Chase Elliott. Elliott won race #2, and would’ve won the Coca Cola 600 if a caution didn’t come out with 2 laps to go which cost him a certain victory. One attribute you have to like about Elliott is his momentum. He’s fresh off a trip to victory lane and over the last four races this season he sports a series best 4.0 average finish. At Kansas, the last low-wear 1.5 mile track visited he finished 5th and had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking. In practice, Chase Elliott had the 7th best 10 lap average and the 6th best 15 lap average. On Sunday, look for Elliott to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Charlotte Track History – Chase Elliott has performed at a high-level at Charlotte. Over the last three races at this 1.5 mile track he sports a 2.7 average finish, he’s had a result in the top 4 every race and he’s averaged leading 36.3 laps per race. In 2020 at Charlotte, Elliott was by far the class of the field. Last year in race #2, Elliott started mid-pack, finished 9th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, led 28 laps and of course raced his way to victory lane. In last years Coca Cola 600, Elliott came close to reaching victory lane, but a late caution with 2 laps to go cost him the win. During that caution he pitted, which dropped him outside the top ten but he rallied back to finish 2nd. In the race, Elliott led 28 laps, was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. In 2019, Elliott was very competitive. In the race he finished 4th, had a 6.9 average running position, led 43 laps and earned the 4th best driver rating. Additionally, Elliott ranked as the 6th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 7th best Green Flag Average Speed.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $13,000
Further Recommended Reading – Charlotte Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Charlotte Playability Value Chart/ Projected Base Scores, FanDuel Charlotte Playability Value Chart/ Projected Base Scores
3) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 8th)
Charlotte Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. is a three-time winner at Charlotte who’ll be a favorite in the Coca Cola 600. Truex has dominated Charlotte races in the past, and he takes his game up to the next level in this crown jewel event. Over the last six Coca Cola 600’s, Truex has 2 wins, a 3.0 average finish, a result in the top 6 every race and he’s averaged leading 159 laps per race! This year at 1.5 mile tracks, Truex is 4 for 4 at finishing in the top ten and his 6.0 average finish ranks as the 2nd best. At the two low tire-wear 1.5 mile tracks visited, Truex has a pair of 6th’s. In practice, Truex had the 9th best 10 and the 9th best 15 lap average. On Sunday, look for Truex to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Charlotte Track History – Martin Truex Jr. has performed at an elite level at Charlotte, and he’s been especially good in Coca Cola 600’s. Since 2015 at Charlotte, Truex only has one result outside the top ten, and that finish was a 13th. Over the last six Charlotte races, Truex has a series best 3.8 average finish, a series best 6.9 average running position, the best driver rating by a wide margin and he’s the only driver who’s finished in the top ten every race. Last year in Charlotte race #2, Truex finished 9th, but I’m not going to read into that result too much because early in the race he scrubbed the wall which led to an extra pit stop during an early caution. In last years Coca Cola 600, Truex had a phenomenal car. In the race he finished 6th, but he performed a lot better than his result. In the race, Truex finished 2nd in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, 4th in Stage #3, had a 2.8 average running position, the best driver rating, led 87 laps and ran the most fastest laps (56). In the final Stage, Truex was beat off pit road while leading and it dropped him back to 3rd. Right before the final caution with 2 laps to go he was running in 4th. In terms of speed analytics, Truex had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best Green Flag Speed and was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2019, Truex was the class of the field and raced his way to victory lane. His win is even more impressive when you take into account on lap 73 while leading he got into the wall hard which brought out a caution. In the race, Truex earned the best driver rating, led a race high 116 laps, had a 6.3 average running position and in terms of speed analytics he ranked as the 3rd best in both Green Flag Average Speed and Speed Late In A Run. In the three Charlotte races prior to that, Truex had results of 2nd, 1st and 3rd.
DraftKings $11,100 / FanDuel $14,500
