Sonoma – Betting Preview

Last week at Charlotta I grabbed a bunch of solid numbers early that weren’t available later in the week. So let’s take a midweek look at the outright odds and we can add some matchups and props later in the weekend. Chase Elliott is (again) a huge favorite to win this weekend, but his odds are about +225 which is already lower than his +250 or +300 odds from COTA. It’s hard to bet a driver at that number so I’m taking a different approach this week. I’m targeting guys that have had success on road courses but have longer odds than you’d expect. Let’s take a look at who has some solid value.

Christopher Bell (28-1) – This one is just too obvious. Bell has the short track/dirt race experience, which tends to lead to road course success. He won already this year at Daytona RC at 66-1 odds. Yes, he’s never raced here but he raced Daytona RC one time before winning there this spring. Also, this course has been changed recently, so no driver has much experience at this track. These odds give Bell about a 3.6% chance to win, and I will bet he wins more often than that. UPDATE: Added +110 Top 10

No Driver to Win Both Stages and the Race -900, 1unit in this case is betting 9u to win 1u. Certainly a bold wager but the pit strategy at road courses makes it nearly impossible to sweep the race. I will also look out for guys on the playoff cut line to stay out and hunt for stage points so Stage 1 and 2 winners will be interesting to look at.

Tyler Reddick (33-1 to Win)  – I keep betting on Reddick and keep winning money. He is on fire right now, considering RCR typically produces second tier cars. He had finished Top 10 three races in a row and seven of the last nine races. Reddick won the pole at COTA and said in his post-qual interview that he has been working very hard on his road course program. He will be starting 10th. UPDATE: Added +425 Top 5 0.5units, +150 Top 10

Kyle Busch (10-1 0.5u) – Kyle has been very fast on road courses. He won the Busch Clash (with a bit of luck) and was running well in the Daytona RC race before being wrecked out late in the race. He finished 2nd last time at Sonoma. He can get it done on the road.

Kurt Busch (35-1 0.5u) – I bet on Kurt at COTA and he had another good race until spinning into the gravel pit late. NASCAR admitted they probably shouldn’t have been racing in those conditions. 35-1 is great value for a road racer this capable. I will be looking for T10 odds later in the week as well. UPDATE: I got Kurt at 55-1 for another 0.5 units. Love that number. 

Anthony Alfredo vs Ben Rhodes (-155 5u) – This is the Skybox Special right here. Max betting that Front Row Motorsports car against a Spire car and winning 90% of the time. It’s a great strategy…as long as Alfredo can stay out of trouble.