Texas NASCAR All-Star Race Confidence Rankings/ Predictions

On Sunday night in Texas, NASCAR will be holding their All-Star Race. Texas does everything bigger, and this 100 lap exhibition event is said to be a “Full metal rodeo for a big ol’ bag of dough (Eddie Gossage).” This Lone Star State race is full of twists and turns, and the randomness will be off the charts (All-Star Race Rules).

NASCAR is also rolling out a different rules package. It will be the standard 1.5 mile high downforce package, but horsepower will be reduced down to the 500-510 HP range instead of the typical 550. That along with short segments will keep the field bunched together.

Another important twist in the All-Star Race is that we won’t know who’s in the All-Star Race until shortly before the green flag. Three drivers will race their way in, and then another driver will be added via the fan vote. My predictions for drivers who’ll get added in via the open are …. Tyler Reddick, Matt DiBenedetto and Ross Chastain. I think Chris Buescher and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. also have a good chance to race their way in. I think the fan vote will likely be Bubba Wallace, but Daniel Suarez has dark horse potential to win that tally.

Here’s the starting lineup for the All-Star Race.

Here’s a look at Projected Finish Ranges for the All-Star Race, and take note all honorable mention drivers who could realistically get in are shown there.

In terms of variables I want in a driver for the Texas All-Star Race I want ….

1. A driver who’s been strong at 1.5 low-wear tracks this year. Here’s a look at Total Speed Rankings at Low-Wear 1.5 mile tracks this year.
2. A driver who’s been showing up with speed, week in and week out. Here’s a look at Total Speed Rankings – Momentum.

1) Kyle Larson (Starting – 1st / DraftKings $ / FanDuel $13,500 )

Kyle Larson will be the driver to beat in the All-Star Race and it’s almost unfair to the competition that he’s “Randomly” starting on the pole. The #5 team is clobbering the competition week in and week out, and at low-wear 1.5 mile tracks he’s been the class of the field. This year at low-wear 1.5’s, Larson dominated at Charlotte and Las Vegas en route to victory lane, and he dominated at Kansas until late cautions cost him a certain victory. In terms of Total Speed Rankings at those venues he’s #1 and his combined Total Speed Ranking is 1.3! In 2019 in his most recent All-Star Race which was held at Charlotte, Larson raced his way to victory lane. I think there’s no question Larson will be the driver to beat, and perhaps the only thing that can beat him is all the gimmicks NASCAR is rolling out.

2) Chase Elliott (Starting – 6th / DraftKings $10,200 / FanDuel $11,000 )

Chase Elliott is the defending All-Star Race winner, but of course last years exhibition event was held at Bristol. On Sunday night, I think Elliott will certainly be a factor. The #9 team has found speed and over the last six races heading into the weekend his 3.3 average finish is a series best. At the two low-wear 1.5 mile tracks visited over that stretch he has results of 2nd (Charlotte) and 5th (Kansas).

3) Kyle Busch (Starting – 2nd / DraftKings $8,200 / FanDuel $12,000 )

Kyle Busch  should prominently be on your fantasy NASCAR radar at Texas in the All-Star Race. Busch raced his way to victory lane last fall at Texas, and in recent races at 1.5 mile tracks there’s no question he’s been one of the best. Over the last six races at low-wear 1.5 mile tracks, Busch has won twice and has a series best 3.2 average finish. This year at low-wear 1.5 mile tracks, Busch has finishes of 1st (Kansas), 3rd (Las Vegas) and 3rd (Charlotte). His Total Speed Ranking over those combined events ranks as the 3rd best. At Texas, Busch has been stellar and over the last five races he has two wins and has only once finished outside the top ten. In 2020 at Texas, Busch led 90 laps and raced his way to victory lane in the fall and in the summer he spun but rebounded to finish 4th. One attribute I like about Busch that will be big is his restarting prowess. When you throw in cautions, there will likely be +10 restarts.