Tour de France Betting Preview
Full Race Bets (All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted)
Richard Carapaz (to win GC +800) – Carapaz is part of the dominant Ineos squad who has owned pro cycling for the last ten years. The whispers around the peloton state that Geraint Thomas will be the leader of this Ineos squad, but nothing has been announced officially. Thomas is sitting at about +550 odds and is a solid bet as well, but I like the odds with Carapaz better. He is the superior climber and will thrive in the high mountains where Thomas is more of a time-trial specialist who can climb.
Primoz Roglic (GC Head to head over Tadej Pogacar -105) – These two riders were neck and neck for the entirety of last year’s TDF. They are also the two favorites to win this year’s race. Roglic had the lead for the majority of the race but got beat by Pogacar on a late mountain time trial. There are two time trials in this year’s edition but both are rather flat. Roglic is the superior time trialist despite losing last year’s TT to Pogacar. That was mostly up a mountain where climbing acumen is more important than straight line power. Roglic will keep up with Pogacar in the mountains this year and gain time in the two TTs to ultimately beat him in the overall GC.
Peter Sagan (to win Points Classification +225, 2units) – Peter is an amazingly versatile and talented rider. He has won SEVEN green jerseys in his career which is already an all time record at age 31. He will be going for his 8th green jersey this year and I don’t see anyone in the field that can stop him. Last year he did not win the green jersey but that was because he got beat by an amazing sprinter, Sam Bennett, and his incredible team. Peter also was off his form last year and didn’t live up to his ceiling high expectations. He has been in much better form this year and Bennett has been scratched from the TDF with a knee injury. There is no one in the field that can compete with Sagan’s consistency. He will be in green by the end of the first week and wear it all the war to Paris unless something catastrophic happens.
Peter Sagan (Points H2H over Arnoud Demare -115, 2u) – Don’t get me wrong, Demare is a great sprinter that will likely win a stage or two. However, this jersey is about consistency rather than flashes of greatness. Sagan will go for every point he can across the three weeks, while most other sprinters are after stage victories only. This is an easy bet as Demare has never beaten Sagan in the points classification and I don’t expect that to change this year.
Caleb Ewan (Points H2H over Mark Cavendish -350, 2u) – Admittedly, this is some heavy juice to lay for a three week long race. But if yout you know the history of Cavendish, this bet is free money. Cav is one of the best sprinters of all time, but he hasn’t been on good form for almost three years now. He is strictly in this race as a fill in for Sam Bennett, a move I dont completely understand. Even when Cav was in peak form, he would struggle to get over the big mountains and would ultimately miss the time cut and be eliminated from the race. He has only finished the TDF a few times in his career because of his ineptitude in the mountains. Caleb Ewan is also a terrible climber, but he has made his way to Paris each of the last two years. I fully expect Cav to drop out of the tour after the first week, which means all Ewan will have to do is finish the race in order for this bet to cash.
Team Movistar (Win Team Classification +110, 2u) – This is a tricky bet to explain how it is graded so check the Team Classification below for further details. The bottom line is that this team has won the Team Classification nearly every year for the last ten years. They always bring an entire squad of great climbers which means they will gain great time in the mountains. Anything better than EVEN odds on this team should be a lock to cash in Paris in three weeks.
Stage 1 Bets:
Matthew Van der Poel (Win Stage 1 +250) – This guy is the hottest rider is all of pro cycling. He has won every race that he has wanted to this spring and been on an unstoppable tear. His speed and power are unmatched, even among the best riders in the world. With stage 1 going uphill at the end, I expect him to use that power and finish easily out front.
Peter Sagan (Win Stage 1 11-1, 0.5u) – As I have stated, Peter is the most consistent sprinter in the Peloton. He has a chance to win every flat or hilly stage there is. He will likely finish Top 3 on the stage here with a great chance to win.
Mark Hirschi (Win Stage 1 50-1, 0.5u) – Hirchi was the breakout star of last years TDF. He will mostly be working for team leader, Tadej Pogacar, this year. But I still think he will have some free reign early in the race. The first two stages are perfect for him, going slightly uphill at the finish. At this big of a number, he likely won’t win the stage, but these odds are way too high for a rider of his caliber.
TDF Glossary:
GC (General Classification) – This is the term for the overall leader of the race. The best time at the end of the 21 stages will wear the yellow jersey into Paris and win the Tour de France.
Points Classification – This is the sprinters competition in the TDF and the leader will wear the green jersey. There is an intermediate sprint on every stage as well as points at the finish line to be won. Whoever has the most points at the end of each stage will be awarded the green jersey to wear for the next stage. The winner in Paris is the points classification champion and it typically goes to the most consistent sprinter of the three week race.
Team Classification – Each stage the Top 3 riders from each team add up their times and add it to their Team Classification. On the flat stages, there are rarely ever time gains, so this race is won in the mountains. Typically the team with the best climbers will win this classification.
