Road America Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings/ Predictions
On Sunday, fire works will fly at Road America as the NASCAR Cup series makes their return following a 65 year hiatus. This Wisconsin track is a monster sized 4 mile, 14 turn road course. I think it promises to be an extremely wild race. It’s also an extremely short race. The Stages are 14/29 and then 62. In total the race is 250 miles.
Since Road America is essentially a new track, here are key variables I want in a fantasy pick this weekend…..
1) A driver who’s performed at a high-level over the three road courses already visited this year. In terms of relevancy of the three I would go Sonoma, Daytona Road Course and then COTA. I would do COTA #2, but because of the weather it’s hard to have solid takeaways from that race.
2) A driver who’s performing at a high-level week in and week out. (Total Speed Rankings)
3) How a driver performed in practice. Practice was held on Saturday. It was a one hour session and not many laps were logged. Here’s Road America 5 lap averages, but I wouldn’t view this as a “Be all/ end all metric).
Here’s Road America Practice Notes / Road America Practice Speeds
4) Starting Position …. but we won’t know that until crunch time on Sunday. Qualifying starts at 11 AM.
5) Drivers past history at Road America. (Road America Drivers Track Records)
On Sunday, NASCAR will hold qualifying at 11 AM! Right after qualifying is complete, a NEW post will go up called “FINAL RANKINGS” which will be a simple post adding starting position into rankings. Other posts will also be completed and updated as needed following qualifying.
Road America Fantasy NASCAR Rankings
1) Chase Elliott
Road America Fantasy Spin – Chase Elliott is a super-elite road course racer and at Road America, the road to victory lane will likely go thru him. The #9 car is always fast on this track type, and at Sonoma a few weeks ago was the first time in YEARS that Elliott was actually outraced on this track type. At Road America, Elliott has two starts under his belt and back in 2014 & 2015 he walked away with a pair of 4th place finishes. In practice, Elliott completed 14 laps and ranked 14th. On Sunday, look for Elliott to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Road Course Racing Prowess – Chase Elliott is the premiere road course racer in NASCAR and since 2018 on this track type minus this years race at the Daytona Road Course where he was poised to win until the “Rain Caution”, and 2019 at Sonoma where his engine blew up while running in 3rd, Elliott has won 6 of the 9 races and has a 2.0 average finish. Two of those wins are notable because they were at road courses that made their Cup schedule debut (Daytona RC 2020) and COTA (2021). This year at road courses, Elliott dominated at the Daytona Road Course until he was robbed of a near certain victory, won at COTA in the rain and then finished 2nd at Sonoma. Additionally at road courses this year, Elliott has the best driver rating, he’s led the most laps (62) and he’s run the most fastest laps (35). In terms of speed late in a run at road courses this year, Elliott ranks 1st (Daytona RC), 1st (COTA) and 8th Sonoma). In the four road course races prior to this year, Elliott was 4 for 4 at reaching victory lane.
DraftKings $10,600 / FanDuel $14,500
2) Kyle Larson
Road America Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson is the driver to beat week in and week out, and there’s no reason to think that will change at Road America. The #5 car is fast, and this year at road courses a strong case could be made that he’s been the premiere performer in the series. In 2021 at road courses, Larson could easily be 3 for 3 at reaching victory lane if circumstances would’ve played to his hand. One attribute you have to like about Larson is that he’s quick at learning road courses. He arguably had the best car in Charlotte Roval race back in 2018, nearly won COTA, and at the Daytona Road Course earlier this year in his first race there he was a factor to win until his late demise. In practice, Larson completed 14 laps and ranked 9th. On Sunday, look for Larson to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Road Course Racing Prowess – Kyle Larson has been a phenomenal performer at road courses in the #5. This year on this track type he dominated at Sonoma en route to victory lane, finished 2nd at COTA (Elliott needed more gas so if the race went the distance he likely would’ve won) and at the Daytona Road Course he crashed late while making a pass for 2nd (highest driver in the running order on fresh tires). His performance at Sonoma is particularly impressive. In that race he outclassed Elliott, led 57 laps, earned a near perfect driver rating and had the best Total Speed Ranking. His speed over the segments in that event were 1st, 1st, 2nd and 1st. At Road America, Larson has one start on his resume and way back in 2013 he finished 7th.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $14,000
Further Recommended Reading – Road America Post-Practice Projected Finish Ranges
3) Joey Logano
Road America Fantasy Spin – At Road America, look for Joey Logano to be strong and be a top five contender. Logano’s been as solid as they come at road courses, and over the last four he’s finished between 2nd to 4th. Heading to a new track, you want to pick a team that is running well and clicking off good results on a weekly basis. Logano certainly checks that box. Since Dover minus Charlotte he’s a perfect 6 for 6 at finishing in the top ten and his average finish is 6.5. This year at tracks making their Cup debut, Logano has a series best 4.7 average finish and he’s the only driver who’s 3 for 3 at finishing in the top ten. In practice, Logano completed 12 laps and ranked 22nd on the speed chart.
Road Course Racing Prowess – Joey Logano is a strong road course racer and in 2021 on this track type, Logano is a perfect 3 for 3 at finishing in the top five and his combined average finish is 3.0. Currently at road courses, Logano has a series best 6 straight top tens and over that stretch his average finish is 5.0. This year at road courses, Logano has results of 2nd (Daytona RC), 3rd (COTA) and 4th (Sonoma). Additionally over the combined races this year, Logano has the 3rd best driver rating and the 3rd best average running position (7.4). In terms of speed late in a run at road courses this year, Logano has speed rankings of 5th (Daytona RC), 4th (COTA) and 9th (Sonoma). Last year at road courses, Logano had results of 2nd (Charlotte Roval) and 9th (Daytona RC).
DraftKings $9,800 / FanDuel $11,800
