Atlanta #2 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings/ Predictions

On Sunday, NASCAR will be returning to Atlanta! If you love worn out ovals, you’re in for a treat this weekend, but you also better have a box of tissues because this race will mark the end of an era. On Monday, the repave/reconfiguration will start to take place. The track changes will consist of increasing banking and narrowing the track. When Atlanta is visited next year, you can completely throw out all of your Atlanta fantasy NASCAR notes because it will be a completely different track.

Current Atlanta, is a 1.5 mile high tire-wear D-shaped oval where tire management is key. Over the course of a run, speeds will dramatically fall off, and during pit stops there’s no question drivers will be taking four tires every stop.

In terms of variables what I want in a driver this week I want ….

1) A driver with a great Atlanta track record. Atlanta has become a “Skill track” where the driver is a difference maker because of the surface.

2) A driver who’s performing at a high-level right now and consistently showing up with speed and clicking off good results. (Total Speed Ranking Momentum Last Six Races / Season To Date)

3) A driver who’s performed well at high tire-wear tracks this year (Atlanta, Homestead and Darlington) (High Tire-Wear Total Speed Rankings)

4) A driver who’s run well at 1.5 mile tracks (1.5 Mile Track Total Speed Rankings)

Here’s the STARTING LINEUP for Atlanta!

Atlanta Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

1) Kyle Larson (Starting – 6th)
Atlanta Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson will be the favorite at Atlanta, and the road to victory lane will go thru him. Larson dominated at Atlanta earlier this year, and since then the #5 car has only gotten stronger. This year at high-tire wear tracks, Larson has been impressive. He has the best Total Speed Ranking over the combined events, and a series best 2.7 average finish. At 1.5 mile tracks like Atlanta, Larson has also been the premier performer. At those venues he has the best overall Total Speed Ranking, he’s ranked #1 over the last three races and his average finish is a misleading 5.4! If Larson would’ve pulled it off at Atlanta, and there wasn’t a late caution at Kansas, Larson would be looking at 4 straight wins at 1.5 mile tracks.
Atlanta Track History – Atlanta has been a great track for Kyle Larson and in the last two races he’s been elite. Larson has two runner-ups to his name and since 2017 his average finish is 6.3. Earlier this year at Atlanta, Larson dominated the competition, but didn’t close out strong which relegated him to a 2nd place finish. In the race, Larson started 6th (same position he’s starting Sunday), won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 269 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking but then late in the race, Blaney reeled him in and passed him for the win. In 2019 when he had his next most recent Atlanta race, Larson had a good chance to win, but his race wasn’t incident free. In the race he won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, led a race high 142 laps but finished a misleading 12th. With about 100 laps to go while he was the leader he was caught speeding on pit road and that dropped him back to about 16th. When the checkered flag waved he finished 12th. In the two Atlanta races prior to that he had results of 9th and 2nd.
DraftKings $12,000 / FanDuel $14,500

Further Recommended Reading – Atlanta Projected Finish Ranges

2) Kyle Busch (Starting – 2nd)
Atlanta Fantasy Spin – Kyle Busch is an elite performer at Atlanta who should be on your short list of favorites. Busch is without question one of the best at Atlanta, and you especially have to love how he’s performed at tracks that have correlation. This year at 1.5 mile tracks, Busch has a series best 4.4 average finish, and at high tire-wear tracks his 6.0 average finish ranks as the 4th best. Another attribute you have to like about Busch is how well he’s running. Over the last six races heading into the weekend, Busch has five top fives and a series best 4.2 average finish. On Sunday, look for Busch to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Atlanta Track History – Kyle Busch is a two-time winner at Atlanta who ranks among the best. Over the last four Atlanta races he’s finished between 2nd to 7th, has a 5.0 average finish and a 6.5 average running position. Earlier this year at Atlanta, Busch had a great race. In the event he started 19th, finished 2nd in Stage #1 and 4th in Stage #2. Then during the Stage #2 caution he was caught speeding on pit road so that dropped him to the back. In terms of speed analytics, Busch had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2020, Busch had a great car and finished runner-up. Additionally, Busch finished 2nd in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, had a 3.7 average running position, ranked as the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 2nd Best Total Speed Ranking. In 2019, Busch had a stellar showing, but finished an asterisk mark 6th. “Performance Wise”, I think Busch clearly had one of the best cars. In the race he started in the rear of the field, but marched up through the pack at a steady pace. In the race he got as high as 2nd, but on lap 223 while he was running in 4th he had a flat tire that came apart and brought out the caution. There was only about 100 laps remaining, so that makes his 6th place finish more impressive.
DraftKings $10,300 / FanDuel $13,000

3) Alex Bowman (Starting – 17th)
Atlanta Fantasy Spin – At Atlanta, Alex “The Grim Reaper” Bowman should be on your short list of favorites for the final race on the old surface. At high-tire wear tracks, Bowman’s won the “Go Away” races at Chicagoland and Auto Club, so this one would be perfect for him to add to his tally (Auto Club is coming back next year, but then it’s going away to be completely redesigned). One key attribute I love about Bowman is his momentum. Since Dover minus Road America, Bowman has a 6.6 average finish. On Sunday, look for Bowman to be a top five contender.
Atlanta Track History – Alex Bowman had a stellar showing at Atlanta this spring and was a top five contender throughout the event. In the race he finished 6th in Stage#1, 3rd in Stage #2, finished 3rd overall, had the 3rd best average running position (4.9) had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the 5th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In the two Atlanta races prior to that in Hendrick equipment, he didn’t show anything which made his finish this spring surprising. In 2020, Bowman had a solid afternoon. In the race he finished 12th, had a 12th place average running position, had the 13th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the 15th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2019, Bowman finished 15th.
DraftKings $9,400 / FanDuel $11,000