New Hampshire Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings/ Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at New Hampshire! “The Magic Mile” is a flat one mile oval that I classify as a “Shorter-flat track.” Other shorter-flat tracks visited this year that have correlation and should be studied are Richmond and Phoenix. New Hampshire is a relatively quick race and track position is king. It’s just 301 laps with Stages set for 75/185/301. This race will be extremely heavy on pit strategy.
In terms of variables I want in a fantasy pick for the New Hampshire Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 I want ….
- A driver who’s been strong at shorter-flat tracks in recent seasons (New Hampshire, Richmond and Phoenix). (750 HP Shorter Flat Track Total Speed Rankings Since 2020)
- A driver with a great track record at New Hampshire
- A driver who’s performing at a high-level on a weekly basis right now (Total Speed Rankings momentum)
- A driver who’s starting relatively near the front (New Hampshire Starting Lineup)
New Hampshire Fantasy NASCAR Rankings
1) Kyle Busch (Starting – 1st)
New Hampshire Fantasy Spin – Polesitter, Kyle Busch will be a favorite to take home the trophy at “The Magic Mile.” The last time Busch started first here, he had lobster for dinner (winner is given a lobster). Throughout the years, Busch has thrived at Loudon and in 7 of the last 13 races he’s finished in the top 3. One key attribute you have to love about Busch is how well the #18 team is running. Busch currently has four straight top 3 finishes and since Charlotte he’s only once finished outside the top 5 and has a series best 3.9 average finish. On Sunday, look for Busch to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
New Hampshire Track History – Kyle Busch has been stellar at New Hampshire. He’s a three-time winner and since 2016 minus the race last year, Busch has a 5.7 average finish, a 3.9 average running position, he’s averaged leading 95.3 laps per race and averaged running 52.8 fastest laps per race. Last year, there’s really no takeaways from Busch’s race. On lap 16 while running in 6th, Busch had a flat tire and pounded the wall which led to his last place finish. In 2019, Busch won Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, finished 8th overall, led a race high 118 laps, had the best Green Flag Average Speed and ranked as the 5th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. It’s important to note, Busch didn’t have an incident free race. On lap 214 he slid up into the wall and it brought out a caution. He was running around 7th at the time. In 2018, Busch finished 2nd, had a 5th place average running position, earned the 4th best driver rating and led 36 laps. Additionally, he finished 6th in Stage #1 and 6th in Stage #2. In fall 2017, Busch had a stellar car and won from the pole. Additionally, Busch earned the best driver rating, had a 1st place average running position, earned a near perfect driver rating and led 187 laps.
DraftKings $10,900 / FanDuel $12,500
2) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 2nd)
New Hampshire Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. is a super-elite performer at New Hampshire who’ll be tough to beat. He’s never won at his “home track”, but he’s consistently finished well and has often been dominant. Over the last six combined races at “The Magic Mile”, Truex has a series best 4.7 average finish, a series best 5.6 average running position and he’s averaged leading a series best 78.8 laps per race. When it comes to racing at shorter-flat tracks, Truex ranks among the best in the series. This year on this sub-track type, Truex finished 1st at Phoenix (led 64 laps, best Total Speed Ranking in segments 3 and 4) and 5th at Richmond (led 107 laps, best Total Speed Ranking). Over the last six segments on this sub-track type in 2021, Truex has speed rankings of 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd and 1st. On Sunday, look for Truex to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
New Hampshire Track History – Martin Truex Jr. has a zero in the win column at New Hampshire, but he’s performed at an extremely high-level and over the last six races he’s 6 for 6 at finishing between 3rd to 7th. Last year, Truex had a strong showing despite getting a pit penalty. In the race he started 11th, finished 2nd in Stage #1, 8th in Stage #2 and then 3rd when the checkered flag waved. During the rain caution while he was running in 3rd around lap 95, a tire got away from the #19 team on pit road and that put Truex to the back of the pack. In terms of speed analytics, Truex had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking and was the 8th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2019, Truex had a solid showing, but once again his race wasn’t incident free. In the race he finished 6th and had a 9.6 average running position. Around lap 145, Clint Bowyer spun and had minor contact with Truex which led to a long pit stop which booted him back to the twenties. In terms of speed analytics, Truex ranked as the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2018, Truex had a great performance. He earned the best driver rating, finished 4th, had a 4th place average running position and led 83 laps. Additionally, Truex won Stage #1 and finished 3rd in Stage #2. In 2017, Truex was good enough to win both races, but he walked away with results of 5th (led 112 laps) and 3rd (led 137 laps).
DraftKings $9,100 / FanDuel $13,500
3) Denny Hamlin (Starting – )
New Hampshire Fantasy Spin – My long running Denny Hamlin fantasy saying is …. “If its short or flat, pick Hamlin.” When it comes to racing on this sub-track type, Hamlin’s an elite performer who should always prominently be on your fantasy NASCAR radar. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Hamlin’s arguably been the best, despite not finding victory lane. At Richmond he led 207 laps and finished 2nd, and at Phoenix he led 33 laps and finished 3rd. If he would’ve been clutch at Richmond, I think he should’ve won that race. In both of those races held on this sub-track type in 2021, Hamlin had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. Over the last five combined races at shorter-flat tracks, Hamlin has four results in the top five and his average finish is 4.6. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll potentially be a factor to win.
New Hampshire Track History – New Hampshire ranks among Denny Hamlin’s best tracks. He’s a three-time winner who’s finished in the top five 41% of the time and the top ten 59% of the time. Over the last five races at “The Magic Mile”, Hamlin has three results in the top 2. Currently at NH, Hamlin has back to back runner-up results. Last year, Hamlin had a stellar showing. In the race he won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, finished 2nd overall, led 92 laps (2nd most), ran 50 fastest laps (2nd most) and earned the 2nd best driver rating. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2019, Hamlin had the car to beat, but he came up short at the end. There was a late caution and he pitted, and quite a few others didn’t. Prior to that caution coming out he was the leader and led 113 straight laps. In the race Hamlin started in the rear of the field, finished 2nd, led 113 laps and had a 5.7 average running position. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin was the 3rd Fastest driver Late In A Run and had the 4th best Green Flag Average Speed.
DraftKings $10,000 / FanDuel $13,000
