Indy Road Course Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings/ Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at the Indy Road Course for the inaugural Verizon 200. The Indy Road Course is a 14 turn, 2.4 mile road course that incorporates high-speed and low-speed road course elements. I think it promises to be an extremely wild race and the Stages are set for 15/35/82 laps.
Since the Indy Road Course is a new track, here are key variables I want in a fantasy pick this weekend…..
- A driver who’s performed at a high-level at road courses visited this year. In terms of relevancy I would go Watkins Glen, Road America, Sonoma, COTA (would be higher if it didn’t rain) and then the Daytona Road Course. (Track Type Total Speed Rankings)
- A driver who ran well in practice (Practice Notes/ Practice Speeds / 5 Lap Averages)
- A driver who’s performing at a high-level week in and week out heading into the weekend (Total Speed Ranking Momentum)
- 4) Starting Position …. but we won’t know that until crunch time on Sunday. Qualifying starts at 9 AM.
On Sunday, NASCAR will hold qualifying at 9 AM! Right after qualifying is complete, a NEW post will go up called “FINAL RANKINGS” which will be a simple post incorporating starting position into rankings. Other posts will also be completed and updated as needed following qualifying.
Indy Road Course Fantasy NASCAR Rankings
1) Chase Elliott
Indy Road Course Fantasy Spin – Chase Elliott is the premiere road course racer in NASCAR, and at the Indy Road Course, the road to victory lane will go thru him. Elliott has seven road course wins to his name, and since 2019 on this track type minus Sonoma 2019 (engine blew up while running in 3rd) and this years Daytona Road Course race (dominated but was robbed by the “Rain Caution”), Elliott has 7 wins, a 1.3 average finish and he hasn’t finished worse then 2nd. Another attribute that needs to be noted about Elliott is that he’s a quick learner on this track type. Over the three new road courses added to the schedule since 2020, he’s 3 for 3 at reaching victory lane. Elliott will have one unexpected advantage this weekend and its that he’ll be racing here Saturday in the Xfinity series. In practice, Elliott had the 7th best 5 lap average. That’s right in range of where he was at Road America (6th) and COTA (7th) where he raced his way to victory lane. In terms of overall speed, Elliott was 23rd, but don’t hit the panic button about that.
Recent Road Course Racing Prowess – In 2021 at road courses, Elliott’s been phenomenal. He’s been to victory lane twice, “Performance Wise” he’s been good enough to win 4 races and he’s tied with Larson for having the best season to date Road Course Total Speed Ranking. Additionally this season at road courses, Elliott has a series best 5.4 average finish, he’s run the most fastest laps and his driver rating is the best. This year at road courses, Elliott dominated at Daytona RC but was robbed by the “Rain caution” (led 44 laps), won at COTA, finished 2nd at Sonoma, won at Road America despite starting near the back (led 24 laps) and at Watkins Glen he started in the back, made an unexpected pit stop but rallied to finish 2nd.
DraftKings $11,000/ FanDuel $14,000
2) Kyle Larson
Indy Road Course Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson has emerged as a super-elite road course racer in the #5, and on Sunday, look for him to finish in the top five and compete for the win. Larson’s been fast at every road course visited this year, and for the season his track type Total Speed Ranking is tied with Elliott for being #1. One attribute I love about Larson is that he’s proven to be a quick learner at road courses and outside of Chase Elliott, I would say he’s the next best. In practice, Kyle Larson had a great car and liked how it performed. 20 minutes into practice he legitimately had the best 5 lap average (was somehow skewed in a major way by the end of practice).
2021 Road Course Racing Prowess – This year at road courses, Larson has been phenomenal. He just raced his way to victory lane at Watkins Glen (led 27 laps), put on a display of domination at Sonoma en route to victory lane (led 57 laps), finished 2nd at COTA, crashed while making a pass for 2nd late at the Daytona Road Course and then at Road America he was top ten good, but got spun late and finished 16th. Additionally this year at road courses, Larson’s led the most laps and his driver rating is the 2nd best.
DraftKings $10,800/ FanDuel $13,500
3) Martin Truex Jr.
Indy Road Course Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. will be a factor at the Indy Road Course. He’s one of the premiere road course racers in NASCAR, and I also view him as a quick learner on this track type. At road courses since 2018 minus COTA (crashed in the rain), this years race at the Daytona Road Course (was in 3rd prior to the “Rain caution”) and the Charlotte Roval in 2018 (spun out while leading in the final turn), Truex has a 3.8 average finish and he’s had a result in the top 9 every race. One attribute I like about Truex is that the #19 team is starting to run better on a weekly basis and over the last five races he has a series best 7.6 average finish. In practice, Truex had a great car. He had the best overall speed, the best 5 lap average and the best 10 lap average (of 3 drivers who made a ten lap run).
2021 Road Course Racing Prowess – In 2021 at road courses, Truex has been great, with the exception of COTA where he crashed in the blinding rain, but I can’t really hold that against him. This year at road courses, Truex finished 3rd at Watkins Glen (led 34 laps), 3rd at Sonoma, 9th at Road America, 13th at Daytona RC (was in 3rd prior to the rain manipulation caution) and then 35th at COTA after crashing. In terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings, Truex is tied for fielding the 4th fastest car on this track type in 2021.
DraftKings $10,400/ FanDuel $13,000
