The Super Low Tier – Michigan
Justin Haley – Justin Haley is fresh off an 8th place finish at Indy, and as a result he’ll start an uncharacteristic 17th! At Michigan, Haley has never made a Cup start and with his starting position, he’s a lock for having a negative place differential. This year at intermediates with minimal tire wear, Haley’s had results of 28th (Charlotte), 29th (Las Vegas) and 30th (Kansas). Also over those combined events, Haley has a 27.7 average running position and his Track Type Total Speed Ranking is a tier best 31st. At Michigan, look for Haley to finish within a few deviations of 30th.
BJ McLeod – BJ McLeod is always one of the more promising super low tier performers. That said, when we’re talking about this tier finishing around 30th is good! Over McLeod’s last six races this season heading into the weekend he’s finished between 28th to 31st. This year at low-wear intermediates his finishes are 30th (Las Vegas), 31st (Kansas) and 31st (Charlotte). In terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings in 2021, McLeod ranks as the 2nd fastest driver of this tier. At Michigan, Bilicki hasn’t raced there since 2018 and that season he had results of 31st and 37th.
James Davison – NOT RACING
After back to back buzzkill results at road courses, I feel a little burnout on James Davison. This year at minimal wear intermediates, Davison has only made one start and at Charlotte he finished 33rd and had the 35th best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, I do think the #15 team ranks as one of the better low-tier teams and at Michigan I think he’ll likely be about a low-thirties performer. Last year at Michigan, Davison had a brutal season and had results of 37th and 38th.
Joey Gase – At Michigan, Joey Gase will drive the #15 in place of James Davison. The #15 is one of the best super low tier cars and on Sunday I’m writing him down as a 30 to 35 driver.
Cody Ware – At Michigan, look for Cody Ware to be a low to mid-thirties driver. This year at minimal wear intermediates, Ware’s 3 for 3 at finishing within that range and his average finish is 32.7. At Michigan, Ware has only made one start and in August 2019 he finished 36th.
Garrett Smithley – At Michigan, Garrett Smithley will be a low to mid-thirties driver. Last year at Michigan, Smithley had results of 34th and 35th. In 2019 he only raced here once and finished 30th. This year at minimal wear intermediates, Smithley is 3 for 3 at finishing between 31st and 34th, has a 32.7 average finish and his Track Type Total Speed Ranking is the 34th best.
Quin Houff – This year at minimal wear intermediates, Houff has results of 32nd (Charlotte), 33rd (Las Vegas) and 37th (Kansas) to his name. Additionally over those combined events, Houff has a 34.0 average finish, a 34.1 average running position and his Track Type Total Speed Ranking ranks as the 36th best. At Michigan, Houff has four starts under his belt and he’s 4 for 4 at finishing between 27th to 32nd. Last year at Michigan, Houff had results of 27th and 32nd, and in 2019 his finishes were 31st and 32nd.
Josh Bilicki – At Michigan, look for Josh Bilicki to finish in the back. This year at minimal wear intermediates (Las Vegas, Kansas and Charlotte), Bilicki’s 36.3 average finish is the worst in the series among drivers who competed in every race. In terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings, he ranks 38th! At Michigan, Bilicki has a pair of 33rd place finishes on his resume. He finished 33rd last year in race #2, and 33rd in his next most recent race in spring 2019.
