Michigan Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings/ Driver Breakdowns
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Michigan! Michigan is a big 2.0 mile oval where the surface is smooth, tire wear is minimal and horsepower is king. In 2020, NASCAR raced at Michigan on Saturday and Sunday, this year we’ll only be getting a single race. With the Playoffs coming up, I think the intensity will be dialed up.
In terms of variables I want in a fantasy pick for Michigan I want …
- A driver who’s performed at a high-level at minimal wear intermediate tracks in 2021. Those tracks are Kansas, Las Vegas and Charlotte. Of those three, Kansas has the most correlation. Here’s Track Type Total Speed Rankings for Minimal Wear Intermediates.
- Michigan Track History
- A driver who’s performed at a high-level at high-speed intermediate tracks in 2021. That track subset is the three minimal wear intermediates listed above but adding Atlanta and Homestead into the mix. Here’s High-Speed Intermediate Track Type Total Speed Rankings.
- A driver who’s performing at a high-level on a weekly basis. (Total Speed Ranking Momentum).
- A driver who’s starting relatively near the front. 4 of the last 5 Michigan races have been won from a top 3 starting position. Here’s the Michigan Starting Lineup.
Michigan Fantasy Rankings
1) Kyle Larson (Starting – 1st)
Michigan Bottom Line – At Michigan, the road to victory lane will go thru Kyle Larson. Larson’s been the premiere performer at minimal wear intermediates this year (Las Vegas, Kansas and Charlotte), and if it wasn’t for a late caution at Kansas he would be 3 for 3 at reaching victory lane. It’s almost unfair he’s starting on the pole, a position where he’s reached victory lane in the past at Michigan. Prior to joining Hendrick Motorsports, racing at 2.0 mile ovals was Kyle Larson’s bread and butter and he’s been to victory lane four times at tracks of this length in lesser equipment. On Sunday, look for Larson to finish in the top five and be a factor to win.
Michigan Track History – Kyle Larson is a 3-time winner at Michigan who performs at an elite level. Since 2016 at MIS, Larson has finished in the top 3 in 5 of the last 8 races. In summer 2019 when Larson most recently raced at MIS, he finished 3rd and had a 13.3 average running position. In spring 2019, Larson finished 14th, but I thought he was better than his result. He earned the 8th best driver rating and had an 11th place average running position. I’ll note he spent some time running in the top five and legitimately ran as high as 2nd. I’m just going to chalk up his result to him not closing well. In 2018, Larson had dud results of 17th and 28th. In the four races prior to that, Larson’s results were 1st, 1st, 1st and 3rd.
Intermediate Track 2021 Prowess – This year at intermediate tracks, there’s no debate Kyle Larson has been the class of the field. This year at minimal wear intermediates which have the most correlation to Michigan (2 wins, robbed at Kansas by a late caution), Larson has been good enough to win all three races, has a 2.6 average running position, the best Total Speed Ranking, the best Driver Rating and he’s averaged leading 187.3 laps per race.
DraftKings $11,500/ FanDuel $14,500
2) Kyle Busch (Starting – 7th)
Michigan Bottom Line – Kyle Busch should be high on your radar at Michigan. The #18 team is without question one of the best at minimal wear intermediates and since the Michigan races last year, Busch has 2 wins, a series best 3.5 average finish, 7 top fives and a worst result of 6th. Another attribute I like about Busch is how well the #18 team is running. Over the last six races heading into the weekend his Total Speed Ranking is the best in the series. On Sunday, look for Busch to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Michigan Track History – Kyle Busch has consistently performed at an elite-level at Michigan and over the last six races he’s finished between 3rd to 6th. When you extend out his track record, Busch currently has a series best 8 straight top tens at MIS. Over the last two seasons at Michigan, Busch has a 5.0 average finish. Last year in race #2, Busch started 16th, but he had no trouble advancing in the running order en route to his 4th place finish. In the race he finished 3rd in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, had a 5.4 average running position, was the fastest driver late in a run and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In race #1 2020, Busch finished 9th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, had a 6.6 average running position, recorded the 5th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 5th overall. In 2019, Busch had a great season and had results of 5th and 6th. In 2018 his finishes were 3rd and 4th.
Intermediate Track 2021 Prowess – Kyle Busch has been super-elite at high-speed intermediate tracks and in 2021, Busch has 1 win, a series best 4.0 average finish and he’s only finished lower than 5th once, and that result was a 10th. At Atlanta, the most recent high-speed intermediate track visited he finished 2nd. At the minimal wear venues which have increased correlation, Busch has results of 1st (Kansas), 3rd (Las Vegas) and 3rd (Charlotte). Of those three, Kansas has the most correlation and I view it as a “Mini-Michigan.”
DraftKings $10,800/ FanDuel $13,500
Check out Michigan Finish Projections!
3) Denny Hamlin (Starting – 9th)
Michigan Bottom Line – At Michigan, look for Denny Hamlin to be a factor. He’s run extremely well at Michigan in recent races and in 2 of the last 3 he’s finished runner-up. This year at tracks that have the most correlation to Michigan, he’s been one of the best. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender.
Michigan Track History – Denny Hamlin is a two-time winner at Michigan who’s performed at an elite level. Hamlin’s finished runner-up in 2 of the last 3 races here, and over the last five he has a 5.8 average finish. Last year in race #2, Hamlin started 15th, finished 6th in Stage #2, finished 2nd overall and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. In terms of speed by segment, Hamlin ranked 13th, 5th, 4th and then in closing time he had the fastest car on the track. In race #1 2020, Hamlin finished 2nd in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, finished 6th overall, had a 4.5 average running position and once again posted the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. In summer 2019, Hamlin had a great car and was a consistent front runner. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd, had a 4.7 average running position and ranked as the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In the three MIS races prior to that, Hamlin had results of 11th, 8th and 12th.
Intermediate Track 2021 Prowess – Denny Hamlin ranks among the best at high-speed intermediate tracks this year, but he’s been especially good at the minimal wear venues which have the most correlation to Michigan. This year at minimal wear intermediates he finished 4th at Las Vegas, 7th at Charlotte and 12th at Kansas. It’s important to note at Kansas he crashed while battling for the lead there. Additionally at the minimal wear venues, Hamlin is tied for having the 4th best Total Speed Ranking, has a 7.6 average running position and he’s averaged leading 19.0 laps per race.
DraftKings $10,400/ FanDuel $11,500
