Daytona Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings/ Driver Breakdowns
On Saturday night, NASCAR will be racing at Daytona! The Daytona summer race is always one of the wildest races of the season, and with it being the regular season finale, the “Wild factor” will get dialed up another notch. This will be drivers last chance to make the Playoffs and remember, “Desperate drivers do desperate things.” Another story line will be Kyle Larson Vs. Denny Hamlin as they duel it out for the regular season title.
In terms of variables I want in a fantasy pick for Daytona I want ….
- A driver who’s frequently finished well at Daytona. Some drivers just have a knack for sneaking in good results here.
- A driver who’s performed at a high-level at Daytona. This is different from finishing well, because some drivers run extremely good here, they just have some bad luck.
- A driver who’s performing at a high-level, week in and week out heading into the weekend.
- A driver can start anywhere at Daytona and win, but starting near the front in recent summer races has been a plus with 4 of the last 6 being won from a top six starting position. The other two were won from 29th or worse. Here’s the Daytona Starting Lineup for Saturday night.
At Daytona, you can never count out the little guys, so make sure you check out “The Super Low Tier – Daytona!”
Daytona Fantasy NASCAR Rankings
1) Denny Hamlin (Starting – 3rd)
Daytona Bottom Line – At Daytona, look for Denny Hamlin to drive with a determination second to none and be the driver to beat. Hamlin’s racing for the regular season title, and shockingly still seeking his first win of the season. Hamlin is currently 28 points behind Larson, so he’ll likely need to win both Stages and the race to get the regular season championship. He’ll have a great car underneath him, and he has the talent to get the job done, but Daytona summer races haven’t been the kindest to him recently. In 4 of the last 5 Daytona summer races he’s finished 17th or worse. Since we’re talking about a “regular season title”, I think he’s capable of being “Clutch” in this situation. Over the last five races at superspeedways, Hamlin has finished in the top five in every race but one. On Saturday night, Hamlin will be a checkers or wreckers driver, and I think its more likely he’ll be on the checkers side of that equation.
Daytona Track History – Denny Hamlin is a standout performer at Daytona who’s unquestionably one of the best. At Daytona, Hamlin’s been to victory lane three times and in a third of his starts he’s finished in the top 5. In this years Daytona 500, nobody was better than Hamlin. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led a race high 98 laps but finished a misleading 5th. The final pit cycle which was largely manufacturer driven cost him the race. Just prior to that, Hamlin was the leader and had control of the race. In 2020 at Daytona, Hamlin had a great season. Last summer, Hamlin had a great car and finished 3rd when the checkered flag waved. In the race he was the leader at the start of over-time, but Byron and Elliott hooked up together and powered past him. In last years Daytona 500, Hamlin finished 1st, won Stage #2 and led a race high 79 laps. When it was closing time, Hamlin was clutch and led the final 13 laps. In summer 2019, Hamlin was a contender to win, but crashed in the late “Big One” which led to his 26th place finish. On lap 113 which was six laps before the “Big One” ensued he was the leader. In the race, Hamlin led 5 laps, finished 8th in Stage #1 and finished just outside the top ten in Stage #2. In the 2019 Daytona 500, Hamlin had a great car and raced his way to victory lane after leading 30 of the final 38 laps. DraftKings $9,400 / FanDuel $13,500
2) William Byron (Starting – 2nd)
Daytona Bottom Line – William Byron will definitely be a factor on Saturday night. He’s the defending Daytona champion of the summer race, and since 2020 on this track type he’s finished in the top five 50% of the time. At Talladega, the other superspeedway on the schedule he finished 2nd this spring and 4th last fall. On Saturday night, look for the #24 to be fast and be tough to beat if he can avoid trouble.
Daytona Track History – William Byron has been a successful performer at Daytona and in the post-plate era, he’s been one of the best. There must be something about summer races and him here because his last two summer results are 1st and 2nd. Earlier this year at Daytona, I think Byron likely had a great car but he crashed in the lap 13 “Big One.” He was able to continue, but the #24 was severely wounded and it led to his 26th place finish. Last summer, Byron had a great car and raced his way to victory lane following a late restart. In the race, Byron finished 7th in Stage #1, led the 3rd most laps (24) and was legitimately running in 3rd with 18 laps to go before all the late cautions started. In last years Daytona 500, Byron was strong. He won his Duel 150 and in the “Great American Race” he looked very competitive, but on lap 58 while he was running in 4th, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. wrecked him. In summer 2019, Byron ran well and dodged the carnage. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd overall, finished 3rd in Stage #2 and was running in 7th six laps before the “Big One” ensued. In the 2019 Daytona 500, Byron earned the best driver rating, had an 8th place average running position, led 44 laps, finished 2nd in Stage #2 but finished an asterisk mark 21st. With 4 laps to go he was running in 7th, but then with two laps to go he was caught up in a multi-car wreck. DraftKings $8,000 / FanDuel $12,000
3) Joey Logano (Starting – 22nd)
Daytona Bottom Line – Joey Logano is a super-elite performer at Daytona who’ll be a favorite. When it comes to superspeedway racing, I view Logano as the perfect combination of smart and aggressive. Earlier this year in the Daytona 500, Logano had the race all but won until he was crashed while leading on the last lap. I will note, Logano has been a liability in recent Daytona summer races as you’ll read below, but he hasn’t been lacking in terms of performance. On Sunday, I would view Logano as a risky contender to win.
Daytona Track History – Joey Logano is without question one of the premiere performers at Daytona. He raced his way to victory lane in the 2015 Daytona 500, and earlier this year he almost added to his tally. That said, “Daytona 500 Joey Logano” is a lot more successful then “Summer Daytona Joey Logano.” In summer Daytona races, Logano’s finished 17th or worse in 7 of the last 8 races. Over the last four summer races he’s finished 25th or worse. That said, Logano has had the best PROS Ranking over the last two Daytona summer races. In this years Daytona 500, Logano had a stellar showing and was well on his way to victory lane until Keselowski wrecked him on the final lap while leading. In the race, Logano finished 8th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, led 26 laps and had solid command of the race following the final pit cycle. Last summer, Logano had a great car and was a contender to win, but crashed late and finished 27th. In the race, Logano won Stage # 1, won Stage #2, led a race high 36 laps and was running in 2nd with 4 laps to go right before he was swept up in a “Big One” after he just made a pass for the lead. In the 2020 Daytona 500, Logano was a standout performer, but wrecked late and finished 26th. In the race he finished 4th in Stage #1, 9th in Stage #2, had the best average running position (9.0) and led 6 laps. With 5 laps to go before he wrecked late he was running in 2nd. In summer 2019, Logano was a contender to win, but finished 25th after crashing in the “Big One.” In the race he led 40 laps, won Stage #1, finished 10th in Stage #2 and was the leader 9 laps before the final “Big One” ensued. In the 2019 Daytona 500, Logano finished 4th overall, 3rd in Stage #1 and 10th in Stage #2. DraftKings $10,600 / FanDuel $14,000
