Darlington Southern 500 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings/ Driver Breakdowns

On Sunday night, NASCAR will be racing at Darlington! “The Track Too Tough To Tame” will mark race #1 of the 2021 NASCAR Playoffs. Darlington is a unique track that presents a challenge to the drivers. It’s an egged shaped 1.366 mile oval where tire wear is high, and the driver is a difference maker. Often times at Darlington you’ll see the same familiar faces finish up front time after time since the race is in the drivers hands more then other tracks.

The Darlington race held earlier this year was a day time race. This race will be a day to night race, and the track will transition throughout the evening as conditions change.

In terms of variables I want in a driver at Darlington I want ….

1. A great track record. Darlington is a “Skill Track” where a driver is a difference maker. Earlier this year the 750 HP rules package was used. In 2020, the 550 HP rules package was used in all three races.
2. I want a driver who’s been strong at high-tire wear tracks (Darlington, Atlanta and Homestead). Knowing how to manage tires will be key on Sunday (High Wear Total Speed Rankings).
3. Recent form (Total Speed Rankings Momentum).
4. A driver who’s starting relatively near the front. The last 11 races here minus race #2 last year where there was an invert have been won from a top 15 starting position. Here’s the STARTING LINEUP for Darlington.

Darlington Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

1) Kyle Larson (Starting – 6th)
Darlington Fantasy Spin – At Darlington, Kyle Larson will be tough to beat. Larson’s never won here, but he’s performed at a super-elite level and has consistently knocked on the door to victory lane. Larson finished runner-up this spring, and in 4 of the last 5 races here he’s finished in the top 3. This year at high-wear intermediate tracks where drivers need to manage their tires over a run, Larson has been great and minus Atlanta #2 where he was a top five contender but got a speeding penalty, he has a 2.7 average finish! Larson has been points racing in recent weeks, but now that the post-season has arrived, look for him to go all out and try to punch an early ticket to the next round! On Sunday night, look for Larson to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Darlington Track History – Kyle Larson is a fantasy ace at Darlington. He’s never won here, but he has back to back runner-ups and should’ve won in 2018. Also at “The Lady In Black”, Larson has only finished outside the top ten once (14th), and his overall average finish is 6.0. Earlier this year, Larson had a great car and late in the race he gave Martin Truex Jr. a run for his money. In the race, Larson started 14th, finished 4th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, ranked as the 2nd fastest driver late in a run and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. What makes Larson’s good run more impressive is that his race wasn’t incident free. During the Stage #1 caution after he just finished 4th he was caught speeding on pit road. In 2020, Larson obviously missed all three races. In fall 2019 in his next most recent race, Larson finished 3rd in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, led 44 laps and finished 2nd. In fall 2018, Larson dominated, but poor restarts at the end cost him what looked like a certain victory. In the race he won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 284 laps and finished 3rd when the checkered flag waved. In 2017, Larson had his lone result outside the top ten and finished 14th, but take note in that race he led 124 laps! Larson’s three results prior to that are 3rd, 10th and 8th.
DraftKings $11,500/ FanDuel $14,000

Don’t be a pretender, become a contender and get the ifantasyrace advantage! 

2) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 10th)
Darlington Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. is a two-time winner at Darlington who’ll likely be the driver to beat. This spring he put on a display of domination, and if he didn’t have problems last fall while battling for the lead, Truex would likely have back to back wins here. This year at high-wear intermediates, Truex has been strong. On this sub-track type in 2021 he has a series best 4.0 average finish and his Total Speed Ranking is the 2nd best. On Sunday night, look for Truex to finish in the top five and be a factor to win.
Darlington Track History – Martin Truex Jr. is a super-elite performer at Darlington. He’s won here twice, but “Performance Wise” I think he should really have four wins. This spring at “The Lady In Black”, Truex put on a clinic and dominated. In the race he won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 248 laps, earned a rare perfect driver rating, was the fastest driver late in a run and across the four segments he had the fastest car on the track. Until Kyle Larson made a run on him in the closing laps, he was unchallenged. Last fall, Truex was the class of the field. In the race he won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 196 laps, ran the most fastest laps (90) but finished a misleading 22nd. Late in the race, Truex was reeling in leader Chase Elliott, but as he was passing him they had contact which led to both of them slamming into the wall. That led to an unexpected pit stop for Truex which doomed him to his poor result. In terms of speed analytics from that event, Truex was the fastest driver early in a run, had the best green flag speed, the best Total Speed Ranking and was the 4th fastest driver late in a run (Speed Cheat Sheet). In Darlington #2 2020, Truex finished 2nd in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, was the 2nd fastest driver late in a run, had a 6.7 average running position and finished 10th. In race #1 2020, Truex finished 3rd in Stage #2, 6th overall and ranked as the 6th Fastest Driver Late In A Run.
DraftKings $11,000/ FanDuel $13,500

3) Kyle Busch (Starting – 12th)
Darlington Fantasy Spin – Kyle Busch will be a contender at Darlington. He’s been a standout performer at “The Lady In Black”, and he’s consistently performed at an elite-level. This year at high-wear intermediates, Busch has been stellar. He’s finished in the top ten every race and over the last three races his average finish is 3.3. Also over the last three races on this sub-track type, Busch has a 2.3 average Total Speed Ranking. Heading into the Playoffs, Busch also ranks #1 in terms of Total Speed Ranking Momentum. On Sunday night, look for Busch to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Darlington Track History – Kyle Busch is without question one of the best at Darlington. He’s only won here once way back in 2008, but since 2010 he’s only finished outside the top 11 once. Since 2017 minus race #1 last year where he had problems, he’s finished in the top 7 every race and has a 4.0 average finish. This spring, Busch had a great car and came home 3rd. That’s a remarkable result when you consider his race wasn’t incident free and he had to battle back from having a flat tire while leading on lap 22. Also in the race, Busch finished 2nd in Stage #2, led 9 laps, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and was the 5th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Last fall, Busch finished 9th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, 7th overall and had a 7.9 average running position. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Busch ranked as the 9th fastest. In Darlington #2 2020, Busch started deep in the field in 26th, but raced his way to a 2nd place finish. Of course, Busch wrecked Chase Elliott in the process but it was a strong showing. In that race, Busch had the 14th best Total Speed Ranking, but got faster as the race progressed. His speed over the segments were 23, 19, 9 and 4. In Darlington #1 2020, Busch started in the rear of the field, was off early, but near the end he rallied into the top ten only to make a late unexpected pit stop which led to his 26th place result. In 2019, Busch had a stellar showing. He finished 4th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 118 laps and finished 3rd. In the two Darlington races prior to that, Busch had results of 5th and 3rd.
DraftKings $11,200/ FanDuel $13,000