Richmond Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings/ Driver Breakdowns
On Saturday night, NASCAR will be rolling into Richmond for race #2 of the Playoffs. After a turbulent Darlington, some teams have already dug themselves into a points deficit, so the pressure will be on them to perform and make points.
Richmond is a .75 mile oval that I classify as a “Shorter-Flat Track.” It hails itself as “The action track”, but take note the only cautions last year were the Stage cautions and a competition caution. The caution count isn’t high here, and drivers will get lapped quickly.
Check out what variables I want in a fantasy pick for Richmond (Moved this typical portion of the content to its own post).
Richmond Fantasy NASCAR Rankings
1) Denny Hamlin (Starting – 2nd)
Richmond Bottom Line – Fresh off his first trip to victory lane in 2021, don’t be surprised if Denny Hamlin gets win #2 at Richmond. My long running fantasy mantra for Hamlin is, “If its short or flat, pick Hamlin.” Without question, Hamlin’s one of the premiere performers at shorter-flat tracks. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Hamlin has the best Total Speed Ranking, the best driver rating, a 5.0 average finish, a 5.4 average running position and he’s one of just three drivers who are 3 for 3 at finishing in the top ten. Also in 2021, Hamlin ranks #1 in terms of Total Speed Rankings over all the oval races where the 750 HP rules package was used. On Saturday night, look for Hamlin to run up front, lead a ton of laps and compete for the win.
Richmond Track History – Denny Hamlin is a super-elite performer at Richmond. He’s a three-time winner and in 9 of the last 11 Richmond races he’s finished in the top 6. Over the last four Richmond races, Hamlin’s average finish is 5.5. This spring, Hamlin had a phenomenal car, but wasn’t clutch when it counted and during the final restart, Bowman passed him for the lead and ultimately the win. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 207 laps, ran 89 Fastest Laps, had the best PROS Ranking, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Last fall, Hamlin had a great car, but finished a misleading 12th. In the race, Hamlin led 45 laps and won Stage #1. Unfortunately, during the Stage #1 caution he got a pit penalty which put him in the back and he simply didn’t perform well in traffic and the race lacked cautions. In 2019, Hamlin swept the top five. That year he finished 3rd in the fall and 5th in the spring.
DraftKings $10,400 / FanDuel $13,500
2) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 3rd)
Richmond Bottom Line – At Richmond, the road to victory lane will likely go thru Martin Truex Jr. He’s won 2 of the last 4 races here, and since 2018 #2 Truex hasn’t finished lower then 5th. In terms of outright performance at Richmond, Truex has been absolutely stellar. Since 2018 in our member exclusive PROS Rankings, he’s been #1 twice, and in every race he’s ranked in the top 3. When it comes to racing at shorter-flat tracks, Truex is without question one of premiere performers in the series. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Truex raced his way to victory lane at Phoenix (led 64 laps), finished 5th at Richmond despite getting a speeding penalty, and then had problems early in the rain at New Hampshire but rebounded to finish 12th. In terms of his Total Speed Ranking over those combined races, Truex ranks 5th. On Sunday, look for Truex to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Richmond Track History – At Richmond, Martin Truex has thrived, and he’s often been dominant. In 7 of the last 9 races he’s led +109 laps or more. Over the last five Richmond races, Truex has 2 wins, a 2.4 average finish, a 3.9 average running position, he’s averaged leading 113 laps per race and his driver rating is the best by a wide margin. This spring at Richmond, Truex had a great car, but came home an asterisk mark 5th. In the race, Truex finished 2nd in Stage #1 & 2, led 107 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking and was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. On lap 297 during green flag pit stops while he was running in 3rd, Truex was caught speeding on pit road. Last fall, Truex finished 7th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, and 2nd overall. In terms of speed analytics, Truex was tied for having the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In fall 2019, Truex had the field covered and easily raced his way to victory lane, despite spinning out while leading on lap 315 (only dropped him back to 3rd). In the race he won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, led 109 laps and earned the best driver rating. In spring 2019, Truex had a phenomenal car and raced his way to victory lane. In addition to finishing first, Truex earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position, led 186 laps, finished 3rd in Stage #1 and 2nd in Stage #2.
DraftKings $10,200 / FanDuel $14,000
3) Joey Logano (Starting – 6th)
Richmond Bottom Line – Joey Logano is a two-time winner at Richmond who’ll be tough to beat. Richmond’s been a standout venue for Logano, and in 6 of the last 8 races he’s finished in the top 4. Logano’s also been an extremely safe Richmond option, and since 2014 he’s only finished south of tenth twice, and both of those are in the top 14. One attribute you have to love about Logano is how strong he’s been at shorter-flat tracks. Since 2020 on this sub-track type, Logano has a series best 2.9 average finish and his Total Speed Ranking is the best. This year over the three combined races at shorter-flat tracks, Logano’s average finish is 3rd, and his Total Speed Ranking is the 2nd best. Also this season over all the combined races at ovals where the 750 HP rules package was used his Total Speed Ranking is the 3rd best. On Sunday, Logano is going to start in 6th. Over the last five Richmond races where he’s started in the top six his average finish is 2.6.
Richmond Track History – Joey Logano is without question one of the best at Richmond and as you read above he’s finished in the top 4 in 6 of the last 8 races. Currently at “The Action Track”, Logano has back to back 3rd place finishes. This spring, Logano had a strong showing and was a factor to win. In the race, Logano finished 3rd in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, 3rd overall, led 49 laps, had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. I’ll also note, Logano was actually the race leader before the final caution came out. Last fall, Logano had a good performance. In the race he finished 3rd in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, led 45 laps, had a 2.8 average running position and finished 3rd when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Logano had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking, the 4th best Green Flag Speed and was the 9th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In fall 2019, Logano had an off-race here and finished 11th (pretty good off day!). In spring 2019, Logano finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 3rd place average running position, led 52 laps and finished 2nd when the checkered flag waved.
DraftKings $10,700 / FanDuel $12,500
