Las Vegas Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Driver Breakdowns
On Sunday night at Las Vegas, round #2 of the 2021 Playoffs will ensue. Are you ready to roll the dice and go big? Las Vegas is a relatively smooth 1.5 mile track, and of the three races in this round, this is the one that teams have circled since there’s a ton of uncertainty at Talladega and the Charlotte Roval.
In terms of variables I want in a fantasy pick for Las Vegas I want …
- A driver who’s run well and displayed speed at high-speed intermediate tracks in 2021. (Total Speed Rankings – All High-Speed Intermediates, 1.5’s, Low-Wear Intermediates)
- A driver with a good Las Vegas track record
- Recent form (Total Speed Ranking Momentum)
- A driver who’s starting relatively near the front. Over the last nine Las Vegas races, 5 of them have been won from a top five starting position, and only once has the winner started lower then 13th. Here’s the Las Vegas Starting Lineup.
Las Vegas Fantasy NASCAR Rankings
1) Kyle Larson (Starting – 1st)
Las Vegas Fantasy Spin – At Las Vegas, the road to victory lane will go thru Kyle Larson. Larson easily raced his way to victory lane this spring, and in 2021 at high-speed intermediate tracks he’s been the driver to beat week in and week out. When you add in the fact that he’s starting on the pole, its almost unfair to the competition. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranks #1 for the season at 1.5 mile tracks and in 3 of the last 4 races he’s fielded the fastest car. Also in 2021 at 1.5 mile tracks minus Kansas (dominated but crashed) and Atlanta #2 (pit penalty), Larson has won twice, has a 2.0 average finish, a 2.7 average running position and he’s averaged leading 176 laps per race. On Sunday, look for Larson to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Las Vegas Track History – Kyle Larson has been elite at Las Vegas. He crushed the competition this spring en route to victory lane, and since 2017 his average finish is 5.3. This spring, Larson was dominant. In the race he won Stage #2, finished 1st overall, led 103 laps, had a 3.4 average running position and earned the best driver rating. In terms of speed analytics, Larson had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and was the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. His speed over the segments were 3rd, 4th, 4th and 1st. In spring 2020, Larson was a consistent top ten performer. In the race he finished 9th overall, 7th in Stage #1, 8th in Stage #2 and had a 9.9 average running position. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked as the 8th fastest. In 2019, Larson ran well in both Las Vegas races, but neither were incident free. In fall 2019 he finished 8th, but I thought Larson was better than his result. In the race he finished 9th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, but then during the Stage #2 caution he had a safety violation during his pit stop which dropped him back to 19th. In spring 2019, Larson also didn’t have an incident free race and that afternoon he finished 12th. Around lap 43, Larson was penalized when too many pit crew members went over the wall. Prior to his problem he was running around 10th. In the three Las Vegas races prior to that he was a factor to win and had results of 2nd, 3rd and 2nd.
DraftKings $11,100 / FanDuel $14,500
2) Denny Hamlin (Starting – 6th)
Las Vegas Fantasy Spin – At Las Vegas, look for Denny Hamlin to be a factor. The # 11 team has been showing up with speed and contending for the win in every race in the Playoffs, and there’s no reason why things will be different at Las Vegas. Over the last five races heading into the weekend minus Daytona, Hamlin has ranked 2nd or better in terms of Total Speed Rankings. At Las Vegas, Hamlin’s been great and currently has back to back top 4 finishes. This year at 1.5 mile tracks, Hamlin has an 8.5 average finish. Kansas is the most similar track on the schedule, and this spring at that venue he dueled it out with Larson for the win, until he had a late flat tire. On Sunday, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Las Vegas Track History – Las Vegas hasn’t historically been one of Denny Hamlin’s better tracks, but over the last two races he’s finished in the top 4. Earlier this year, Hamlin had a great car. In the race he finished 4th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, led 47 laps, had the 3rd best driver rating and then finished 3rd overall. Additionally, Hamlin was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2020, nobody was better than Hamlin, but he finished a misleading 3rd after getting burned by a late caution during the pit cycle. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, led a race high 121 laps, ran the most fastest laps (51) and had the best driver rating by a wide margin. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin ranked #1 across the board and had the best Total Speed Ranking, Green Flag Average Speed and was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In spring 2020, the #11 team just missed the setup and Hamlin finished 17th.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $13,000
3) Kyle Busch (Starting – 10th)
Las Vegas Fantasy Spin – At Las Vegas, look for Kyle Busch to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. Busch is one of the premiere performers at 1.5 mile tracks and since the start of the 2020 Playoffs at tracks of this length (9 races), Busch has 2 wins, a 4.0 average finish, 7 top fives and he’s had a result in the top ten every race. This year in terms of Total Speed Rankings at 1.5 mile tracks, Busch is tied for being the 2nd fastest and his last three results are 2nd (Atlanta), 3rd (Charlotte) and 1st (Kansas). That Kansas win is very notable, because I consider Kansas to be the most similar track to Las Vegas.
Las Vegas Track History – Las Vegas is Kyle Busch’s home track, and in 5 of the last 7 races he’s finished between 2nd to 7th. This spring, the #18 got better over the course of the race and when the checkered flag waved he finished 3rd. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Busch ranked as the 10th best, but from a micro perspective his speed over the segments were 15th, 11th, 8th and 3rd. Last fall, Busch finished 6th overall, 3rd in Stage #1, had a 9.2 average running position and had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. That said, Busch didn’t have an incident free race. Early in Stage #2 while battling 3-wide for the lead, Busch had contact with Logano which impacted his performance for the remainder of the evening. In spring 2020, many JGR cars were down on speed, and Busch finished a lack luster 15th. In fall 2019, Busch had problems early and late, but make no mistake he was a top ten contender despite his 19th place finish. He had problems on lap 5 which dropped him 2 laps down, and then his final problem happened while he was running in 10th with 16 laps to go (contact with another car). In spring 2019, Busch might’ve had the best car, but he came home 3rd. That’s a very impressive result because his race wasn’t incident free and it lacked cautions. In the race he finished 2nd in Stage #1, but then trouble struck in Stage #2 during green flag pit stops when he was caught speeding while leading which dropped him a lap down to 17th. In 2018, Busch had results of 2nd and 7th.
DraftKings $10,800 / FanDuel $13,500
