Charlotte Roval Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Driver Breakdowns
This week, NASCAR will be racing at the Charlotte Roval in what promises to be a wild “Elimination Sunday.” Four drivers will get eliminated, and right now only Denny Hamlin is locked into the next round. “Desperate drivers do desperate things”, so you can count on the wildness factor to be off the charts.
In terms of variables I want in a fantasy pick for the Charlotte Roval I want …
- A driver who’s performed at a high-level at road courses this year. Here’s Road Course Track Type Total Speed Rankings.
- A driver with a great Charlotte Roval track record (Charlotte Roval Speed Cheat Sheet from last year).
- Recent form. I want a driver who’s performing at a high-level, week in and week out. (Total Speed Ranking Momentum)
- A driver who’s starting relatively near the front. Here’s the Charlotte Roval Starting Lineup.
Charlotte Roval Fantasy Rankings
1) Chase Elliott (Starting – 8th)
Charlotte Roval Fantasy Spin – Chase Elliott is the premiere road course racer in NASCAR and at the Charlotte Roval where he has back to back wins, there’s no question he’ll be the favorite. At road courses, Elliott is a 7-time winner and since Watkins Glen in 2019 minus this years race at the Daytona Road Course (best car, robbed by a “rain caution”), Elliott has a 1.5 average finish and he’s only finished outside the top 2 once, and that finish was a 4th! This year at road courses minus Daytona RC, Elliott has 2 wins and a 2.0 average finish. In terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings, Elliott ranks #2 slightly behind Larson. On Sunday, look for Elliott to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Charlotte Roval Track History – Chase Elliott has been the driver to beat at the Charlotte Roval. At the Roval, Elliott has back to back wins, a 2.7 average finish, he’s had a result in the top 6 every race, his driver rating is the best by a wide margin and he’s averaged leading 20.7 laps per race. Last year, Elliott didn’t have an incident free race, but he still managed to race his way to victory lane. In the race, Elliott finished 2nd in Stage #2, but right when the final Stage was going green he came to pit road because of a loose wheel. Despite his problem, Elliott led 27 laps, had the best driver rating and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. Over the final segment when it was closing time, Elliott had the fastest car on the track. In 2019, Elliott crashed while leading in the final Stage, but wouldn’t be denied the win and put on a display of domination. In the race, Elliott started 19th, finished 9th in Stage #1, won Stage #2 and led the most laps (34). On lap 66 while leading during a restart he locked up his brakes and went nose first into the tire barrier. He bounced back from that and had no problems racing his way to the front. Elliott’s strength was being fast late in a run, and in that analytic he ranked #1. In 2018, Elliott finished 6th, earned the 4th best driver rating and had a 9th place average running position. Additionally, Elliott finished 5th in Stage #1 and 7th in Stage #2.
DraftKings $10,700 / FanDuel $14,500
2) Kyle Larson (Starting – 10th)
Charlotte Roval Fantasy Spin – At the Charlotte Roval, look for Kyle Larson to be a factor. This year at road courses, there’s no question Kyle Larson has been one of the premiere performers. He’s won on this track type twice, and “Performance Wise” you could say he’s been good enough to win 5 of the 6 races (Indy, good chance he would’ve won if there wasn’t a late caution. COTA, would’ve cycled to the lead if they didn’t call the race. Daytona RC, crashed late while battling for 2nd, highest driver in the running order on fresh tires)! In terms of speed at road courses this year, Larson ranks #1 in terms of Track Type Total Speed Rankings, besting even Chase Elliott! Also in 2021 on this track type minus Daytona RC, Larson has a 4.6 average finish and a 5.0 average running position. On Sunday, look for Larson to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Charlotte Roval Track History – Kyle Larson has been fast at the Charlotte Roval, and in 2018 when the track made its series debut, I would argue nobody was better. Larson has only raced at the Roval twice, but in terms of averages, Larson ranks #1 in terms of fastest laps per race (19.5) and laps led per race (26.0). Larson is also 2 for 2 at winning Stage #1. In 2019 when Larson most recently raced at the Roval, Larson started 7th, won Stage #1, led 5 laps, was the 5th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and then finished 13th when the checkered flag waved. In 2018, Larson was the driver to beat, but his race wasn’t incident free and he finished an asterisk mark 25th. In the race, Larson earned the best driver rating, led 47 laps, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run, had the best Green Flag Average Speed and had a 5th place average running position. Additionally, Larson won Stage #1 and finished 9th in Stage #2. While he was running in 2nd late, Larson was a victim in the restart “Big One.”
DraftKings $10,300 / FanDuel $14,000
3) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 5th)
Charlotte Roval Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. is one of the premiere road course racers in NASCAR and at the Charlotte Roval, he’ll be a top five contender who’ll be in the mix to win. This year at road courses, Truex has been fast, and his Track Type Total Speed Ranking is the 4th best. Since 2018 on this track type minus COTA (crashed in the rain), this years race at the Daytona Road Course (was in 3rd prior to the “Rain caution”) and the Charlotte Roval in 2018 (spun out while leading in the final turn), Truex has a 4.8 average finish.
Charlotte Roval Track History – Martin Truex Jr. has been strong at the Charlotte Roval, and lets not forget, he was just one turn away from winning the inaugural race. If we were to credit him with a simple 2nd from 2018, then at the Roval he would be 3 for 3 at finishing in the top 7 and his average finish would be 5.3. Last year, Truex was strong. He finished 4th in Stage #1, 7th overall, had a 10.5 average running position and was tied for having the 5th best Total Speed Ranking. In terms of speed by segment he ranked 6th, 9th, 7th and 7th. In 2019, Truex started in the back, messed up in the chicane twice (stop and go penalty on the track) but he still managed to finish 7th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed late in a run, he ranked as the 4th best. In 2018, Truex Jr. had a great performance and would’ve won if Johnson didn’t take him out when he wheel hopped right at the end. That collision took away a certain victory and relegated him to a 14th place finish. From the race I’ll note he earned the 6th best driver rating and had an 8th place average running position.
DraftKings $10,100 / FanDuel $11,500
