The Super Low Tier – Phoenix
Justin Haley – This spring at Phoenix, Justin Haley was the top super low tier performer and he finished 24th. That also marks his only Cup start in the desert. This year in his other races at shorter-flat tracks minus Richmond #1 where he had engine problems right at the start, Haley has results of 27th (Richmond #2) and 28th (New Hampshire). On Sunday, look for Haley to be a high-twenties performer.
BJ McLeod – At Phoenix, BJ McLeod is a lock to finish within a few deviations of 30th. This spring he finished 30th at Phoenix, and in 13 of the last 16 races heading into the weekend he’s finished within a deviation of 3 from 30th.
Cody Ware – Cody Ware is driving to preserve a charter for Rick Ware Racing at Phoenix, so he might drive a smart race, and I wouldn’t be surprised if his teammates wave him by. This spring at Phoenix, Ware didn’t drive a smart race and crashed Anthony Alfredo which also marked his own demise leading to a 36th place finish. In his other two Phoenix starts he has results of 32nd (spring 2019) and 28th (fall 2018). At New Hampshire, the most recent shorter-flat track he’s raced at he finished 31st. In 4 of the last 6 races heading into the weekend, Ware has finished between 28th to 31st.
Joey Gase – Joey Gase might be able to surprise us a little this week and run better then expected. Over his Phoenix starts since 2016 minus a fall 2019 engine failure he’s 4 for 4 at finishing between 29th to 32nd. Gase didn’t race at Phoenix this spring, but last year he walked away with results of 32nd (fall) and 29th (spring). Richmond is a similar track and in September at that venue he finished 33rd. On Sunday, look for Gase to be a low to mid-thirties driver.
Quin Houff – At Phoenix, Quin Houff has finished between 30th to 34th in 3 of his 4 starts. This spring, Houff finished 32nd. In the three other races held at shorter-flat tracks this year, Houff has results of 34th (Richmond #1), 35th (Richmond #2) and 35th (New Hampshire).
Garrett Smithley – This year at shorter-flat tracks, Garrett Smithley has results of 33rd (New Hampshire), 34th (Phoenix) and 35th (Richmond #1). I’m going to believe that finish trend and expect it continues on Sunday.
Josh Bilicki – Josh Bilicki has been consistent at Phoenix. He finished 35th this spring, and 35th last fall. This year in the other races held at shorter-flat tracks, Bilicki has results of 34th (New Hampshire), 36th (Richmond #1) and 37th (Richmond #2).
David Starr – At Phoenix, David Starr likely has mid-thirties potential, and if attrition spikes he might be able to finish marginally better. This year minus Daytona and Texas where the attrition rates were high, he’s 4 for 4 at finishing between 32nd to 36th and his average finish is 34th.
Timmy Hill – It’s a coin flip between Timmy Hill and David Starr for who’ll be the least competitive this weekend. At Phoenix, Hill finished 38th this spring and over his last four races here he’s finished 36th or worse.
