2021 was advertised to be the “Best Season Ever”, so make sure you buckle up for the duel in the desert where a champion will be crowned! The stakes couldn’t be higher, and the drivers who’ll be battling it out in the winner take all battle royal are Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr. Last year in the desert, the championship four finished 1,2,3 and 4, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the case again.

In terms of variables I want in a fantasy pick for Phoenix I want ….

1. A driver who’s run well and displayed speed at shorter-flat tracks this year (2021 Shorter Flat Track Stats & 2021 Shorter Flat Track Total Speed Rankings). The other two shorter-flat tracks on the circuit that have correlation to Phoenix are Richmond and New Hampshire.
2. A driver with a great track record at Phoenix. In particular, I would really focus on the last three races held with the current rules package.
3. I want a driver who showed speed in practice (Practice Notes and Practice Speeds).
4. Recent Form (How well the driver has been performing in recent races)
5. A driver who’s starting relatively near the front (Qualifying is on Saturday night).

Thank you for checking out ifantasyrace.com in 2021! Hope you have a great off-season!

Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

1) Kyle Larson (Starting – 1st)
Phoenix Fantasy Spin – 2021 has been Kyle Larson’s year, but he still needs to seal the deal with a win at Phoenix. On Sunday, I think that goal is very achievable. There’s no question the #5 team was confident they would reach the finale, so you better believe they have a great car lined up, just like Elliott did last fall. This spring at Phoenix, the #5 car was awesome, and if Larson didn’t start in the back and get two speeding penalties, I think he very likely could’ve won. In practice, Larson was fast. Larson had the best 5 lap average and late in the session he moved up to the resin and recorded the 2nd best 10 lap average. This week, Larson will be piloting the same chassis he drove this spring. On Sunday, look for Larson to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Phoenix Track History – Kyle Larson has been elite at Phoenix. Since fall 2018, Larson is five for five at finishing between 3rd to 7th and has a series best 4.8 average finish. This spring, Larson had an impressive performance and finished 7th. In the race, Larson started in the back, got caught speeding during the competition caution (lap 30, left pit road in 9th) but then he rallied to finish 9th in Stage #1. Then in Stage #2, Larson climbed up to 2nd, but was then caught speeding during green flag pit stops around lap 144. Then in the final Stage, Larson climbed as high as 4th. In terms of speed analytics, Larson was the fastest driver late in a run and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2020, Larson obviously missed the race. In spring 2020, Larson had a solid showing and finished 4th. In the race, Larson got better as the race progressed. His Total Speed Ranking was 11th, but in the 4th segment he ranked as the 5th fastest. In the three Phoenix races prior to that, Larson had results of 4th, 6th and 3rd.
DraftKings $11,500 / FanDuel $14,500

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2) Chase Elliott (Starting – 2nd)
Phoenix Fantasy Spin – At Phoenix, you can count on Chase Elliott to be a contender as he vies to repeat as champion. Elliott came up clutch last year in this race when needed, and I think he has a great chance to repeat. At Phoenix over the last three races with the current rules package, a strong case could be made that Elliott’s been the strongest over the combined events. In practice, Elliott had the 4th best 5 lap average, the 3rd best 10 lap average and the 2nd best 15 lap average. This week, Elliott will be piloting a brand new chassis. On Sunday, look for Elliott to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Phoenix Track History – Chase Elliott is the defending fall winner at Phoenix and in recent races he ranks among the best. Over the last three combined races, Elliott has a 4.3 average finish, a 6.7 average running position and the 2nd best driver rating. This spring, Elliott started in the back, finished 5th in Stage #1, 9th in Stage #2 and then 5th when the checkered flag waved. What makes Elliott’s good finish more impressive is that during the Stage #2 caution he was caught speeding on pit road. In terms of speed analytics, Elliott had the 10th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2020, Elliott was strong enough to win both races. Last fall en route to victory lane, Elliott started in the rear of the field (inspection issues), but he quickly sliced and diced his way up through the running order. By lap 30 he was up to 10th. At the conclusion of Stage #1 he was 3rd. In Stage #2, Elliott finished 2nd after getting passed on the last lap for the Stage win. In the final Stage, Elliott hit the afterburners and took command of the race. In addition to winning, Elliott led 153 laps, was tied for having the best Total Speed Ranking, had the 2nd best Green Flag Average Speed and ranked as the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In spring 2020, Elliott had one of the best cars, but finished an asterisk mark 7th. In the race, Elliott led 93 laps, finished 2nd in Stage #1, but in Stage #2 on lap 157 while he was the leader and had a 1.4 second lead, Elliott made an unexpected pit stop which dropped him a lap down to 28th. In terms of speed analytics, Elliott had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the 6th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In fall 2019, Elliott was a top five contender but finished 39th after crashing.
DraftKings $10,800 / FanDuel $14,000

3) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 12th)
Phoenix Fantasy Spin – At Phoenix, look for championship contender Martin Truex Jr. to be tough to beat. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Truex has arguably been the premiere performer. He raced his way to victory lane this spring at Phoenix, he won at Richmond #2 the most recent shorter-flat track visited, and for the season on this sub-track type minus New Hampshire (problems early in the rain), Truex has a 2.3 average finish. For the season at shorter-flat tracks across the four combined races, Truex has the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. In practice, Truex had great speed and had the best 15 lap average. This week, Truex will be piloting the same chassis he won with this spring.
Phoenix Track History – Martin Truex Jr. has been strong at Phoenix. Truex raced his way to victory lane this spring, and since 2019 minus spring 2020 where he crashed, Truex has a 4.75 average finish. This spring, Truex had a great car. He wasn’t at his best early, but nobody was better late. In the race, Truex started 5th and then on lap 22, he scrubbed the wall which led to a long pit stop during the Stage #1 caution. Then in Stage #2 after adjustments, the #19 hit the afterburners and Truex rallied to finish 2nd in that segment. When the checkered flag waved, Truex finished 1st, led 64 laps, was the 2nd fastest driver late in a run and had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking. To further break down his speed over the segments, Truex had speed rankings of 15th, 6th, 1st and 1st. Last fall, Truex was just OK. In the race he finished 10th, had a 13.3 average running position and the 12th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2020, Truex had a great car, but crashed in the last Stage and finished 32nd. In the race he led 11 laps, finished 7th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2 and had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking. Truex Jr.’s demise came with about 30 laps to go while running in the top ten. “Performance Wise”, he looked like a top five contender. In 2019, Truex had results of 2nd and 6th.
DraftKings $10,400 / FanDuel $13,000