Daytona 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions
Brad Keselowski
Daytona 500 Bottom Line – Brad Keselowski is one of the premiere superspeedway racers in NASCAR, and in the Daytona 500, I think he’ll be a factor as he makes his owner/driver debut. Keselowski has 7 wins on this track type, but not one of them has come in the “Great American Race.” Keselowski came close last year, but I’m sure he wants to redeem himself from that performance because of how the end played out. If Keselowski can avoid trouble, he’ll be tough to beat, but more often than not in recent Daytona races he’s crashed so there’s certainly risk.
Daytona Track History – Brad Keselowski is a former Daytona winner (summer 2016), but overall, it ranks as his worst track in terms of average finish (23.2) among venues visited more than once. Since winning in summer 2016, Keselowski only has 1 top ten (a 10th) and in 7 of the 10 races he’s finished 27th or worse. Last summer, Keselowski was caught up in late carnage that led to his 33rd. He drove a conservative race, and trouble still caught up to him. I don’t think he ever showed his hand in that race. In last year’s Daytona 500, Keselowski had a great car, but on the final lap while he was making a pass for the lead, he had contact with Logano and crashed. In the race, Keselowski started in the rear of the field in a backup car, finished 10th in Stage #2 and 13th overall thanks to the high-attrition rate. In summer 2020, Keselowski had his best Daytona result since he won and came home 10th. With 16 laps to go he was back in the high-twenties, and at the start of “Over-time” he was in 15th. In the 2020 Daytona 500, Keselowski had a fast car, but crashed late and finished 36th. In the race he led 30 laps and with 24 laps to go which was shortly before his demise he was running in 3rd. In summer 2019, Keselowski had a good car, but wrecked on lap 82 which led to his 39th place finish. On lap 81, one lap before he crashed, he was running in 6th. In the 2019 Daytona 500, Keselowski finished 12th, but I’ll note he still crashed late in that race.
Aric Almirola
Daytona 500 Bottom Line – Aric Almirola is a solid superspeedway driver who should be on your radar. Almirola’s a two-time winner on this track type (points paying races), and he knows how to handle the draft as good as nearly anyone. Since 2017 on this track type, Almirola has finished in the top eleven 52.6% of the time and the top fifteen 70.5% of the time. I’ll note though, his superspeedway success has been more prevalent at Talladega recently. At Daytona in recent races, Almirola’s luck hasn’t been so great and since 2019 he only has 1 top ten and a 21.3 average finish. That said, Almirola certainly hasn’t lost his touch. Last year in his Duel 150, Almirola raced his way to victory lane. On Sunday, I’m going to view Almirola as a teen’s driver who has a good chance to sneak in a top ten in his Daytona 500 farewell.
Daytona Track History – At Daytona, Almirola raced his way to victory lane in summer 2014, but as you read above, things haven’t been great for him in recent races. Last summer, Almirola had an OK race and finished 14th. Almirola didn’t do anything flashy, and he was actually in 4th with just 10 to go. He wasn’t officially listed in any late accidents, but I’m assuming he got damage or something since he finished behind some who did. Last February, Almirola had a great car, but he crashed in the lap 13 “Big One” which marked the end of his race. At the time of his early demise, Almirola was running in 2nd. Prior to the “Great American Race”, Almirola won his Duel 150 in dominant fashion and led 52 of the 60 laps. In summer 2020, Almirola ran towards the back for nearly the entire race and didn’t show much muscle. I think his level of effort was pretty low in the regular season finale, so I wouldn’t read into his 18th place effort too much. In the 2020 Daytona 500, Almirola had a fast car, but didn’t have an incident free race and finished 22nd. In the race he finished 3rd in Stage #1 and was running in 6th with 24 laps to go before he was swept up in the “Big One.” Then later, Almirola was caught up in another wreck with 2 laps to go. In summer 2019, Almirola had his most recent Daytona top ten and finished 7th.
Portions of this content are hidden. To view this ifantasyrace advantage content log in or join the site
Make sure you read the full spectrum of our Daytona 500 Fantasy NASCAR Rankings
Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runner Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions > The Low Tier
