Las Vegas Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Larson
Las Vegas Bottom Line – At Las Vegas, look for Kyle Larson to be the driver to beat. Larson’s the defending spring winner, and after just racing his way to victory lane at Auto Club despite starting in the back, you can be confident the #5 will be fast. At Las Vegas, the high-line also comes into play, and running that groove is a key strength of Larson’s so you know he’ll be especially strong. At Auto Club in addition to racing his way to victory lane, Larson fielded the fastest car on the track in the final segment, was the 5th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 6th best Green Flag Speed. Last year at low to minimal wear intermediates, Kyle Larson was the premiere performer in the series. On this sub-track type minus Kansas #1 where he probably would’ve won if he didn’t have problems late, Larson had 4 wins and a 2.8 average finish. His average laps led per race including all the races at these venues was a staggering 159!
Las Vegas Track History – Las Vegas has been a stellar venue for Kyle Larson. He’s the defending spring winner, and since 2017 he’s finished in the top 12 every race and his 5.9 average finish ranks as the 3rd best. Last fall, Larson had a great car, but he finished an asterisk mark 10th. In the race, Larson started on the pole, won Stage #1, led 95 laps, had a 6.9 average running position and then finished 10th when the checkered flag waved. In Stage #2, a caution came out that got him out of sync with the field fuel wise, and he simply never fully bounced back. In terms of speed analytics, Larson ranked 4th in both Speed Late In A Run and Total Speed Rankings. In spring 2021, Larson was dominant. He won Stage #2, finished 1st overall, led 103 laps, had a 3.4 average running position and earned the best driver rating. In terms of speed analytics, Larson had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and was the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In spring 2020 in his next most recent race which was in the #42, Larson finished 9th overall, 7th in Stage #1, 8th in Stage #2 and had a 9.9 average running position.

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Joey Logano
Las Vegas Bottom Line – At Las Vegas, look for Joey Logano to be a factor. The #22 team has been a contender in every race in 2022, and I don’t think that’s going to change at Las Vegas which is a track that him, and Penske Racing have thrived at. At “Sin City”, Logano has won 2 of the last 3 spring races, and in spring races since 2014 his average finish is 4.75. At Auto Club in the Next Gen’s intermediate track debut last week, Logano started in the back, finished 7th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, led 14 laps, was tied for having the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and finished 5th when the checkered flag waved.
Las Vegas Track History – Joey Logano is a two-time winner at Las Vegas, but his recent level of performance has just been solid. Over the last five races, Logano has 1 win, but in the other four races he’s finished between 9th to 14th. Also, over those five races, Logano has an 8.8 average finish and a 10.5 average running position. Last fall, Logano was a low double-digit performer. In the race, Logano finished 11th, had an 11.8 average running position, had the 12th best Total Speed Ranking and was the 14th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In spring 2021, Logano was solid. He finished 9th, had an 11.2 average running position, was the 10th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 11th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2020, Logano looked very competitive but finished a misleading 14th. In the race, Logano finished 2nd in Stage #1, but then early in Stage #2 shortly after the restart while battling 3-wide for the lead he had contact with Kyle Busch which led to an unexpected pit stop. After that, Logano’s competitive evening was over. In spring 2020, Logano had a strong showing and raced his way to victory lane. I’ll note, Logano probably didn’t have the best car, but he was certainly top five good. He stayed out during the late caution and that ultimately won him the race. If the end of the race would’ve played out naturally, he likely would’ve finished 3rd. From the race I’ll note he had a 4.2 average running position, led 54 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the 4th fastest driver late in a run.

Chase Elliott
Las Vegas Bottom Line – At Las Vegas, look for Chase Elliott to be strong. Elliott finished runner-up last fall, and in many of the recent races here he’s been in contention to win despite what his results show. One thing you can be certain about Elliott is that he’ll show up with speed. Last week at Auto Club, Elliott had a great car that might’ve just been the best, but he had problems late while battling for the lead and finished 26th. Also, early in the race he had problems while leading. In 2021 at low to mid-wear intermediates, Elliott’s 5.6 average finish ranked as the 2nd best in the series.
Las Vegas Track History – Chase Elliott has been a consistent contender at Las Vegas and ranks among the best, but he’s had numerous misleading results in recent races. Since 2019, Elliott has the 4th best driver rating but only the 10th best average finish (12.7). In 3 of those 6 races, Elliott’s had a misleading result. Last fall, Elliott finished 6th in Stage #1, but then in Stage #2, pit strategy got him out of sync with the field when he didn’t pit during the Gase caution and that had him making a green flag pit stop in that segment when almost nobody else had to. Elliott had a phenomenal car though and he battled back to finish 2nd. Many of his stats are skewed by that, but in terms of speed analytics he was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2021, the #9 was fast, but Elliott’s race was far from incident free. In the race, Elliott finished 2nd in Stage #1, 10th in Stage #2, led 22 laps, finished 13th overall and had the 9th best Total Speed Ranking. In terms of speed by segment, Elliott was 1st, 8th, 11th and then 14th. In the race, Elliott led his laps early, but then during the lap 25 competition caution he got some damage around his jack post side skirt. Then during the Stage #1 caution after he just finished 2nd, Elliott had an extended stop to repair damage which dropped him back to 28th. Elliott rebounded to finish 10th in Stage #2, but that wasn’t his final problem. In the final Stage while he was in 11th on lap 169, Elliott spun and that dropped him back to 27th. All of those problems make his 13th look kind of good. In fall 2020, Elliott finished 22nd, but you can completely disregard that result. In the race he finished 4th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 73 laps and had a 4.4 average running position. Elliott wasn’t at his best during late restarts and with 37 laps to go before a race changing caution during the pit cycle he was running in 6th. In terms of speed analytics, Elliott had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and the 2nd best Green Flag Average Speed. To further break down Elliott’s Total Speed Ranking, he was 1st, 1st, 4th and 7th over the four segments. In spring 2020, Elliott was the class of the field, but finished an asterisk mark 26th. In the race he won the first two Stages, led 70 laps but a late valve stem issue while leading with 47 laps to go relegated him to his poor result. In 2019, Elliott had results of 4th and 9th.

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Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runner Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions > The Low Tier