Las Vegas Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings
Christopher Bell
Las Vegas Bottom Line – Christopher Bell was a big let-down at Auto Club with all of his problems which resulted in a last place finish. At Las Vegas, I think JGR will show up with more speed after a week of lessons learned at Auto Club in the Next Gen’s intermediate track debut. “Performance Wise” at Auto Club prior to his problem, Bell looked like a low double-digit to mid-teens performer. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Bell ranked 11th. At Las Vegas, Bell doesn’t have a great track record overall, but he ran great last spring. On Sunday, I think he’ll be a low double-digit driver who has a great chance to finish in the top ten.
Las Vegas Track History – Christopher Bell hasn’t always fared well at Las Vegas and in 3 of his 4 starts he’s finished south of 24th. Last fall, Bell finished 24th, but you really can’t read into his result. During the lap 25 competition caution while he was running around the mid-teens, Bell damaged his nose on pit road. Later during the Stage #1 caution, the #20 team spent more time repairing his car, but that actually dropped him off the lead lap because he didn’t beat the pace car when he returned to the track (now in 30th). Last spring, Bell had a great car and ran in the top ten throughout the afternoon. In the race, Bell finished 6th in Stage #1, 7th in Stage #2 and then 7th when the checkered flag waved. Additionally, Bell had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking and was the 8th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In fall 2020, Bell looked like a mid-teens driver, but finished 24th after having quite a bit of adversity following the late cautions (got into the wall, Byron ran into the back of him). In spring 2020, Bell didn’t run well, and his afternoon wasn’t incident free. He looked about mid-twenties good, but on lap 159 while he was just off the lead lap in 25th he spun into the wall and killed his car which led to his 33rd place finish.
Kurt Busch
Las Vegas Bottom Line – Las Vegas is Kurt Busch’s home track, but he certainly hasn’t had a homefield advantage. Going by average finish (20.8), Las Vegas statistically ranks as his very worst track among venues visited more than once. In recent Las Vegas races, Kurt’s been batting .500 in terms of good/ bad finishes, so take note there’s risk. Last week at Auto Club in the #45, Kurt Busch had an eventful weekend but at the end of the day he finished 8th (13th best Total Speed Ranking in the final segment). At Las Vegas, I expect Kurt Busch to be a top ten contender, but there’s certainly safer options out there.
Las Vegas Track History – Kurt Busch is a recent winner at Las Vegas, but he’s been a “Hero or zero” in the races since 2019. In 3 of the last 6 he’s finished in the top 8. In the other three over that stretch, Busch finished 19th or worse. Last fall, Busch ran well. He finished 7th in Stage #1, 8th overall, had an 11.7 average running position and had the 14th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2021, Busch finished a dud 19th. Additionally, Busch had the 13th best Total Speed Ranking and a 14.4 average running position. In fall 2020, Busch raced his way to victory lane, but he certainly didn’t have the best car. Busch got a lucky break caution with 37 laps to go, before that race changing moment he was running in 14th. In the race, Busch had a 12.8 average running position, the 12th best Green Flag Average Speed and had the 14th best Total Speed Ranking (speed over segments were 12,11,20 and 12). In spring 2020, Busch finished 25th, but he was better than his result. In the race he had a 16.9 average running position and ranked as the 13th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. “Performance Wise”, I think he was probably around mid-teens good, but he was impacted by a caution during the pit cycle. In 2019 in the fall, Busch finished 6th in Stage #1, 9th in Stage #2 but on lap 188 while he was running around 10th, he slammed into the wall hard which led to his 39th place finish. In spring 2019, Busch raced his way to a 5th place finish.
Erik Jones
Las Vegas Bottom Line – If you’re looking for a sleeper pick for Las Vegas, consider Erik Jones. He’s finished in the top ten in 2 of the last 3 races here, and just last week at Auto Club in the Next Gen’s intermediate track debut, Jones had a stellar showing. At Auto Club he finished 3rd, earned the best driver rating, had a 4.3 average running position, had the best Total Speed Ranking, had the best Green Flag Speed and was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Will he duplicate that performance at Las Vegas? I don’t know, so make sure you pay attention to him during practice and qualifying this weekend. I’ll note, goofy things can happen in early races of the year, and other organizations will show up better prepared and largely for that reason I can’t be all that bullish on him. At Las Vegas, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jones competes for a top ten, but I feel more comfortable viewing him as a low double-digit to mid-teens driver who has a great chance to finish in the top ten.
Las Vegas Track History – Last year at Las Vegas in the #43, Erik Jones was great in the spring but awful in the fall. Last September, Jones finished 26th and had a 19.8 average running position. I’ll note, he’s a driver who chose to get out of sync fuel wise with the field in Stage #2, and that was ultimately the wrong choice for everyone. I’ll note prior to his fuel gamble he was in the low 20’s. In spring 2021, Jones ran well and finished 10th. That result is legitimate, but he also never ran well like that again at a similar track last year. Additionally in that race, Jones had a 16.6 average running position and had the 17th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2020 in the #20, Jones ran well and finished 8th. In spring 2020 he finished 23rd.
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