Las Vegas Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Bubba Wallace
Las Vegas Bottom Line – At Las Vegas, look for Bubba Wallace to be a high-teens to low-twenties driver. If things go really well, a mid-teens result might be possible. At Las Vegas, Wallace hasn’t had much success, but what I really don’t like about him was his performance at Auto Club. That race wasn’t incident free for him, but he also never ran well. In that event he finished 19th, had the 32nd best Total Speed Ranking (was never south of 25th in any Stage) and his average running position was 25.2.
Las Vegas Track History – Things typically haven’t been good for Bubba Wallace at Las Vegas and only in 2 of his 8 starts has he cracked the top 20. Last fall, Wallace had one of his best races here and had a rare top 20. In the race, Wallace finished 16th, had a 16.8 average running position and had the 20th best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Wallace finished 28th, but you really can’t read into that result. Wallace had problems under his hood fairly early, so his afternoon was doomed almost from the start. In fall 2020, he finished 28th, and he was truly that bad. In spring 2020, Wallace finished a fool’s gold 6th. That race had a late caution and a wild ending, you can chalk up his good result to being a product of that. The real number you need to know about that race is 22.2, and that was his average running position. With 18 laps to go before late cautions came out, Wallace was running in 21st.

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Michael McDowell
Las Vegas Bottom Line – Michael McDowell has established himself as a 17th to 24th place performer at Las Vegas, and on Sunday, I would look for that trend to continue. At Auto Club last week when the Next Gen made its intermediate track debut, he finished 31st, but take note he ran better than his result. His average running position was 18th and his Total Speed Ranking was the 23rd best.
Las Vegas Track History – At Las Vegas, Michael McDowell has finished between 17th to 24th in 4 of the last 5 races. Over that stretch minus spring 2020 where he had problems under his hood his average finish is 20.75. Last fall, McDowell finished 21st, had a 20.8 average running position and had the 26th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2021, McDowell had his best Las Vegas race ever. In the race he led 9 laps (pit strategy), finished 17th, had a 17.9 average running position and had the 21st best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2020, McDowell had one of his better evenings here. In the race he finished 21st, had an 18.5 average running position and had the 21st best Total Speed Ranking.  In spring 2020 McDowell finished 36th, but you really can’t read into that result. On lap 38 while he was running in the high 20’s he had a stuck throttle which sent him to the garage.

Justin Haley
Las Vegas Bottom Line – At Auto Club, Justin Haley didn’t exactly have a confidence inspiring performance, so I can’t say I’m expecting much out of him this weekend. At Auto Club, Haley finished 23rd, had the 22nd best Total Speed Ranking and had a 20.1 average running position. At Las Vegas, I think he’ll be a low to mid-twenties driver.
Las Vegas Track History – At Las Vegas, I wouldn’t read into Justin Haley’s track record since his new ride is more competitive situation than his previous #77. Last year, Haley had clunker results of 29th and 32nd. Those results are basically how the #77 stacked up against the competition.

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