Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Martin Truex Jr.
Phoenix Bottom Line – At Phoenix, look for Martin Truex Jr. to be strong and be the driver to beat. Last year, nobody was better than Truex at Phoenix and he could’ve easily had a season sweep. Also in 2021, Truex performed at a super-elite level at shorter-flat tracks, and you’ll read more about that below. After a strong showing at Las Vegas, I think it’s clear Joe Gibbs Racing is starting to turn the corner with the Next Gen. On Sunday, look for Martin Truex Jr. to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Phoenix Track History – Last year at Phoenix, nobody was better than Martin Truex Jr. and he had results of 1st and 2nd for the season. Since 2019 in the desert minus spring 2020 where he crashed, Truex has a 4.2 average finish. Last fall, Truex had a great car. In the race he won Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2 and if there wasn’t the final caution which dropped him from 1st to 3rd on pit road, he probably could’ve won. When the checkered flag waved, Truex finished 2nd. In the race, Truex had a 3.7 average running position, led 72 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking and was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In spring 2021, Truex had a great car. He wasn’t at his best early, but nobody was better late. In the race, Truex started 5th and then on lap 22, he scrubbed the wall which led to a long pit stop during the Stage #1 caution. Then in Stage #2 after adjustments, the #19 hit the afterburners and Truex rallied to finish 2nd in that segment. When the checkered flag waved, Truex finished 1st, led 64 laps, was the 2nd fastest driver late in a run and had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking. To further break down his speed over the segments, Truex had speed rankings of 15th, 6th, 1st and 1st. In fall 2020, Truex finished 10th and had a 13.3 average running position. In spring 2020, Truex was likely a top five contender, but crashed late and finished 32nd. In 2019, Truex had results of 2nd and 6th.
Recent Similar Track Success – Last year at shorter-flat tracks, Martin Truex was the driver to beat. For the season on this sub-track type minus New Hampshire where he had early problems in the rain, Truex had 2 wins, a 2.3 average finish and he averaged leading 80.8 laps per race. Over the combined events, Truex had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking.

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Kyle Larson 
Phoenix Bottom Line – At Phoenix, Kyle Larson should be high on your radar. He won’t have the championship extra 100 HP under his hood (joke), but there’s no question he’ll show up with speed and be a factor. Prior to his win last fall in the desert, Larson already ranked among the best here. On Sunday, look for Larson to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Phoenix Track History – Kyle Larson has been a fantasy ace at Phoenix. Larson of course raced his way to victory lane last fall, but overall since fall 2018 he has a series best 4.2 average finish and he’s had a result in the top 7 every race. Last fall, Larson finished 5th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led a race high 107 laps and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, if there wasn’t a late caution which propelled him from 4th to the lead, there’s no chance he was going to win. In spring 2021, Larson started in the back, got caught speeding during the competition caution (lap 30, left pit road in 9th) but then he rallied to finish 9th in Stage #1. Then in Stage #2, Larson climbed up to 2nd, but was then caught speeding during green flag pit stops around lap 144. Then in the final Stage, Larson climbed as high as 4th. When the checkered flag waved he finished 7th. In terms of speed analytics, Larson was the fastest driver late in a run and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2020, Larson obviously missed the race. In spring 2020, Larson had a solid showing and finished 4th. In the race, Larson got better as the race progressed. His Total Speed Ranking was 11th, but in the 4th segment he ranked as the 5th fastest. In the three Phoenix races prior to that, Larson had results of 4th, 6th and 3rd.
Recent Similar Track Success – Kyle Larson is a strong performer at shorter-flat tracks. He came up clutch when needed at Phoenix in the fall, and for the season minus Richmond #1 where he simply missed the setup, Larson finished in the top 7 every race, had a 5.3 average finish, a 7.6 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking was the 7th best.

Denny Hamlin
Phoenix Bottom Line – At Phoenix, Denny Hamlin will be a top five contender who’ll be battling it out for the win. Hamlin’s one of the best in the business at Phoenix, and he’s also one of the premiere performers at shorter-flat tracks. Last week at Las Vegas, Denny Hamlin looked extremely competitive until he had his drive train problem. Look for the #11 team to bounce back in a big way at Phoenix.
Phoenix Track History – Phoenix has been a great track for Denny Hamlin and in 5 of the last 6 races he’s finished in the top 5. Over the last three races, Hamlin has a 3.3 average finish, a 3.9 average running position and the best driver rating. Last fall when Hamlin was up for title contention he finished 4th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, finished 3rd overall and had a 4.7 average running position. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin was the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2021, Hamlin was stout. He finished 4th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, had a 3.8 average running position, finished 3rd overall and led 33 laps. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin was the 3rd fastest driver late in a run and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2020 when Hamlin was up for title contention he finished 2nd in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, 4th overall and had a 3.2 average running position. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and his speed over the segments were 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th. In spring 2020, Hamlin was likely a top five contender, but he crashed in the opening Stage while running well.
Recent Similar Track Success – Denny Hamlin ranks among the premiere performers at shorter-flat tracks. In 2021 on this sub-track type, Hamlin had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best average finish (4.0), the best average running position (4.5) and he averaged leading the most laps per race (87.6).

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