Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings

Ross Chastain 
Phoenix Bottom Line – If you’re looking for a dark horse at Phoenix, don’t overlook Ross Chastain. Chastain found speed at shorter-flat tracks in the second half of the 2021 season and consistently clicked off good results. After a great performance at Las Vegas, Chastain should definitely be on your radar.
Phoenix Track History – Last year at Phoenix, Chastain went 2 for 2 at finishing in the teens. Last fall, Chastain had his best Phoenix performance ever and finished 14th. Additionally, Chastain had a 15.6 average running position and had the 18th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2021 which was early in his #42 tenure, Chastain finished 19th, had a 20.2 average running position and had the 22nd best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2020, Chastain drove the #6 and when the checkered flag waved, he finished 17th. I wouldn’t bother looking into any of his other Phoenix starts.
Recent Similar Track Success – Ross Chastain was a hidden gem at shorter-flat tracks in 2021. Last year he finished 19th (Phoenix #1) in the first race, but then over the next four he had 2 top tens, an 11.0 average finish, an 11.8 average running position and finished in the top 15 every race.

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Kurt Busch 
Phoenix Bottom Line – At Phoenix, look for Kurt Busch to run well and compete for a top ten. Busch hasn’t been at his best at Phoenix in recent races, but I expect a bump up in terms of performance from him in the #45. In the last two races heading into the weekend, Busch has results of 8th (Auto Club) and 13th (Las Vegas).
Phoenix Track History – Kurt Busch is a capable performer at Phoenix. Busch has finished between 11th to 16th in 4 of the last 5 Phoenix races, but in terms of talent, I think he’s a lot better than those results. Since 2020 in the desert, Busch has a 12.3 average finish and a 12.3 average running position. Last fall in his #1 farewell, Busch was just OK. He finished 16th, had a 13th place average running position, was the 10th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 13th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2021, Busch had a similar performance. That afternoon he finished 15th, had a 13.6 average running position and was tied for having the 14th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2020, Busch finished 9th in Stage #1, 7th in Stage #2, 12th overall and had a 9th place average running position. In terms of speed analytics, Busch had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking but was the 16th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In spring 2020, Busch finished 6th, had a 13.7 average running position and had the 14th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2019, Busch had results of 7th and 11th.
Recent Similar Track Success – Kurt Busch has historically been a successful performer at shorter-flat tracks. In 2021 on this track type, Busch had a down year. He looked great at Richmond #2 but had a tire problem and crashed. In the other four races he finished in the teens between 13th to 16th. He’s obviously in a different ride, so I wouldn’t hit the panic button about that.

Alex Bowman 
Phoenix Bottom Line – Alex Bowman has been a fantasy enigma to me at Phoenix. In his first race here in the #88 way back in fall 2016 he started on the pole, led 194 laps, finished 6th and earned the best driver rating. Since then, Bowman hasn’t cracked the top ten and hasn’t even led a lap. On Sunday, I’m going to view Bowman as a low double-digit to mid-teens driver.
Phoenix Track History – At Phoenix, Alex Bowman currently has four straight results in the teens. Over that four race stretch, Bowman sports a 15.3 average finish, a 15.6 average running position and he’s 4 for 4 at finishing between 13th to 18th. Last fall, Bowman didn’t have a race to brag about. When the checkered flag waved he finished 18th, had an 18.5 average running position, was the 18th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 21st best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2021, Bowman finished 13th, had a 17.2 average running position and had the 17th best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, Bowman didn’t have an incident free race. In the event he was spun into the wall on lap 46 while he was running in the high-teens and got some notable damage. In fall 2020, Bowman was fast early but his team didn’t seem to keep up with adjustments. In the race, Bowman finished 7th in Stage #1, around the mid-teens in Stage #2 and then 16th when the checkered flag waved. In spring 2020, Bowman had one of his better Phoenix afternoons and finished 14th. Additionally, Bowman finished 6th in Stage #1 and had a 12.5 average running position.
Recent Similar Track Success – Last year at shorter-flat tracks, Alex Bowman raced his way to victory lane at Richmond #1, but then in the other four races he had a 13.0 average finish, a 14.7 average running position and had a result between 9th to 18th. Over the combined races, Bowman had the 15th best Total Speed Ranking.

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