Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Cole Custer 
Phoenix Bottom Line – At Phoenix, Cole Custer has some dark horse potential and he’s better than his track record. If things go well and he avoids trouble, I think Custer legitimately has low double-digit to mid-teens potential. To play it safe though, I would view him as a high-teens driver but note he has upside.
Phoenix Track History – Cole Custer has been respectable at Phoenix, unfortunately in half his starts (2 of 4) he’s had major problems which have his average finish weighed down to 20.25. In his two incident free races he’s finished in the top 13. Last fall, Custer ran well. In the race he finished 7th in Stage #1, 13th overall, had a 15.7 average running position, had the 15th best Total Speed Ranking and was somehow the 6th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In spring 2021, Custer had teens potential, but ended up walking away with a 31st. In the race, Custer had an 18.9 average running position and the 21st best Total Speed Ranking. On lap 297 while he was in the mid-teens, Bubba Wallace had contact with him which led to the #41 getting into the wall hard which doomed him to a 31st. In fall 2020, Custer finished 28th, but you can disregard that result. In the race he finished 14th in Stage #1, 13th in Stage #2 but around lap 206 in the final Stage he made an unexpected pit stop under green that dropped him a lap down and doomed him to a 28th place finish. In terms of speed analytics, Custer had the 14th best Total Speed Ranking, the 14th best Green Flag Speed and ranked as the 13th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In spring 2020, Custer had a great Phoenix debut. He finished 10th in Stage #2, 9th overall, had the 14th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the 5th Fastest Driver Late In A Run.
Recent Similar Track Success – In 2021 at shorter-flat tracks minus Phoenix #1 where he crashed, Custer had an 18.0 average finish and a 19.6 average running position. Over the combined events, Custer had the 20th best Total Speed Ranking.

Don’t be a pretender, become a contender and get the ifantasyrace advantage! Join Now!

AJ Allmendinger
Phoenix Bottom Line – At Phoenix, AJ Allmendinger will be behind the wheel of the Kaulig Racing #16 Chevy. I think Allmendinger has teens potential, but Kaulig Racing cars often have quite a few problems which lead to misleading results. To play it safe, I’m going to view him as a high-teens to low-twenties driver who might be able to finish marginally better.
Phoenix Track History – Last year at Phoenix in the Xfinity series, Allmendinger finished 14th in the fall and 5th in the spring. In Cup, Allmendinger last raced at Phoenix back in 2018. In fall 2018 he finished 12th, but then in his three starts prior to that he finished in the 20’s.
Recent Similar Track Success – In 2021 in the Xfinity series at shorter-flat tracks, Allmendinger had a 12.25 average finish over the combined events. I’ll note, quite a few of those races weren’t incident free for him.

Daniel Suarez 
Phoenix Bottom Line – At Phoenix, I would pencil in Daniel Suarez as a high-teens to low-twenties driver. That matches up with how he’s run at shorter-flat tracks in the #99, and with how he performed in both 2021 Phoenix races.
Phoenix Track History – At Phoenix, Daniel Suarez has finished in 21st in 3 of the last 4 races. In 2021 in the #99, Suarez had a pair of 21st’s and had a 22.3 average running position between the combined events. Last fall en route to his 21st, Suarez had a 20.8 average running position, was the 17th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 23rd best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2021, Suarez finished 21st, had a 23.8 average running position and had the 24th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2020, Suarez piloted the #96, so I wouldn’t bother looking into those races.
Recent Similar Track Success – Last year at shorter-flat tracks, Daniel Suarez was a high-teens to low-twenties driver. Over the combined events, Suarez had a 19.0 average finish, a 20.7 average running position and he was 5 for 5 at finishing between 16th to 21st. Suarez’s track type Total Speed Ranking was the 23rd best.

Make sure you read the full spectrum of our Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runner Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions > The Low Tier