Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks/ Post-Practice Predictions
On Sunday at Phoenix, race #4 of the 2022 season will commence. In this early season “Duel In The Desert”, the stakes will be high since in November the championship will be decided here. Phoenix is a 1-mile D-shaped oval and I classify it as a “shorter-flat track.” Other shorter-flat tracks that I consider comparable are Richmond and New Hampshire. This will obviously be the Next Gen’s Shorter-Flat Track debut so there will certainly be question marks, but following testing in January Kyle Larson said, “It didn’t seem too much different than the previous car. It felt pretty normal.” On Sunday, don’t hit the panic button because I don’t think the wheel has been reinvented.
This weekend, NASCAR held its group practice sessions, so make sure you check out our Phoenix Practice Notes, Phoenix Practice Speeds and Phoenix 10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.
Here’s the Phoenix Starting Lineup/ Qualifying Results.
Phoenix Fantasy NASCAR Full Field Rankings
1) Ryan Blaney / Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings / 10 Lap Average – 2nd / 15 Lap Average – 2nd / 20 Lap Average – 2nd / 25 Lap Average – 2nd
Fantasy Spin – At Phoenix, look for polesitter, Ryan Blaney to perform at a high-level and be a factor. The #12 is showing up with race contending speed every week, and there’s no question he won’t be strong at Phoenix. In the desert, Ryan Blaney ranks among the best and he’s a “winner in waiting.” In 4 of the last 6 Phoenix races, Blaney’s finished between 3rd to 6th, and if he didn’t crash in spring 2020, Blaney would likely be 6 for 6 at finishing in the top ten since 2019. Over that stretch minus his misleading result in spring 2020, Blaney has a 5.2 average finish, a 5.3 average running position and he’s averaged leading 32.6 laps per race. Last fall, Blaney was the most competitive of the non-championship drivers. In the race he finished 8th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, had a 5.3 average running position, led 33 laps and finished 4th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Blaney had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking and over the four segments he ranked between 5th to 7th in terms of speed. In spring 2021, Blaney won Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, had a 4.8 average running position, led 35 laps and then finished 10th when the checkered flag waved. In fall 2020, Blaney finished 6th. In spring 2020, Blaney crashed while running just outside the top five fairly early. In the two races prior to that he had back-to-back 6th’s. Last year at shorter-flat tracks, Blaney had an 8.0 average finish, a 7.0 average running position and his Track Type Total Speed Ranking was the 10th best. In practice, Blaney ranked 2nd in terms of speed for 10,15,20,25 and 30 lap average.
DraftKings $9,600 / FanDuel $11,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +900
Further Recommended Reading: Phoenix Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Phoenix Playability Value Chart, FanDuel Phoenix Playability Value Chart
2) Denny Hamlin / Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range / 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings / 10 Lap Average – 17th / 15 Lap Average – 11th/ 20 Lap Average – NA / 25 Lap Average – NA
Fantasy Spin – Denny Hamlin is a super-elite performer at Phoenix who’ll be tough to beat. Hamlin’s off to a rough start in 2022, but he could easily turn around his fortunes at Phoenix. He’s always stout here, and last year at shorter-flat tracks he was arguably the premiere performer. In the desert, Hamlin has finished in the top five in 5 of the last 6 races, and in the one race he didn’t, he was a top five contender, but his race wasn’t incident free. Over the last three Phoenix races, Hamlin has a 3.3 average finish, a 3.9 average running position and the best driver rating. Last fall, Hamlin finished 4th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, finished 3rd overall, had a 4.7 average running position, the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and was the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In spring 2021, Hamlin once again finished 4th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2 and 3rd when the checkered flag waved. Additionally in that race, Hamlin was the 3rd fastest driver late in a run and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2020 when Hamlin was competing for the championship, he finished 2nd in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, 4th overall and had a 3.2 average running position. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2021 at shorter-flat tracks, Hamlin had the best average finish (4.0), the best average running position (4.5), the best Total Speed Ranking and led the most laps per race (87.6).
DraftKings $10,100 / FanDuel $11,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +800
3) Kyle Larson / Start REAR of the field, but will be scored from 7th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Speed Rankings / 10 Lap Average – 3rd / 15 Lap Average – 1st / 20 Lap Average – 1st / 25 Lap Average – 1st
Fantasy Spin – At Phoenix, Kyle Larson isn’t competing for a championship on Sunday, but last fall’s winner will be tough to beat. Since fall 2018 at Phoenix, Larson has a series best 4.2 average finish and he’s had a result in the top 7 every race. Last fall en route to winning the championship, Larson finished 5th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led a race high 107 laps and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. I’ll note, if there wasn’t a late caution which propelled him from 4th to the lead, he likely wouldn’t have won. In spring 2021, Larson started in the back, got caught speeding during the competition caution (lap 30, left pit road in 9th) but then he rallied to finish 9th in Stage #1. Then in Stage #2, Larson climbed up to 2nd, but was then caught speeding during green flag pit stops around lap 144. When the checkered flag waved, Larson finished 7th. In terms of speed analytics, Larson was the fastest driver late in a run and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In his next four most recent Phoenix races, Larson had results of 4th, 4th, 6th and 3rd. In 2021 at shorter-flat tracks minus Richmond #1 where he missed the setup, Larson had a 5.3 average finish and had a result in the top 7 every race. In practice, the #5 was fast and he ranked #1 in terms of average speed for 15,20,25 and 30 lap runs.
DraftKings $11,800 / FanDuel $14,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +400
