COTA Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Chase Elliott 
COTA Bottom Line – At COTA, look for road course king, Chase Elliott to be the favorite. Elliott always shows up with standout speed on this track type, and there’s not a better default pick you can make. Elliott’s the defending COTA champion, and in recent years he’s become a legendary performer on this track type. On Sunday, look for Elliott to be a factor to win and at worst, finish in the top five.
Road Course Racing Prowess – Chase Elliott is the premiere road course racer in NASCAR. On this track type, Elliott’s a 7-time winner and since 2018 minus Sonoma 2019 (engine blew up while running in the top five), Daytona RC 2021 (walking away with the win until the rain manipulation caution came out) and last year’s race at the Charlotte Roval (Harvick wrecked him), Elliott has a 2.1 average finish and he’s had a result in the top 6 every race. Last year at road courses, Elliott was impressive and over his five incident free races (minus Daytona RC and Charlotte Roval), Elliott won twice, had a 2.0 average finish and had a result in the top 4 every race. In the two he didn’t have an incident free race, there’s no doubt “Performance Wise” he was likely poised to be a factor to win. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Elliott ranked #1 for the season.
COTA 2021 – Chase Elliott came up clutch last year at COTA and raced his way to victory lane in the “Lone Star State.” Elliott may not have had enough gas to go the scheduled distance but make no mistake he had the best car in the field. In the race, Elliott finished 2nd in Stage #2, had an 8.5 average running position, led 5 laps and of course finished 1st when the checkered flag waved. Additionally, Elliott ranked #1 in terms of long run speed. In the telecast, Jeff Gordon mention that his strength was really launching off the corners.

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Kyle Larson 
COTA Bottom Line – At COTA, look for Kyle Larson to be a factor. Behind the wheel of the #5 on this track type, Larson’s performed at a super-elite level and has consistently been knocking on the door to victory lane. On Sunday, look for Larson to finish in the top five and be a factor to win.
Road Course Racing Prowess – Kyle Larson has emerged into a super-elite road course racer in the #5. Last year on this track type, Larson had 3-wins and minus Daytona RC and Road America where he had problems, Larson had a result in the top 3 every race and had a 1.6 average finish! To repeat that, his incident free average finish was 1.6! Also last year on this track type, Larson ranked 2nd in terms of Total Speed Rankings. At “traditional road courses in 2021” (no roval element) minus Road America where he was spun, Larson had 2 wins, finished in the top 2 every race and had a 1.3 average finish!
COTA 2021 – Kyle Larson had a great car last year at COTA and if the race went the scheduled distance, he was likely poised to be the winner. In the race, Larson finished 4th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, led 4 laps, had a 7.2 average running position and then finished 2nd when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Larson ranked as the 2nd fastest driver late in a run.

Kyle Busch 
COTA Bottom Line – At COTA, I have high expectations for Kyle Busch. Busch ranks as one of the best in the business on this track type and on Sunday I would look for him to be a top five contender.
Road Course Racing Prowess – At road courses, Kyle Busch is a four-time winner and since 2015 on this track type minus “Rovals” which have his number, Busch has a series best 5.1 average finish, a series best 8.0 average running position and he has the best driver rating. Last year at road courses, Busch had a great season and minus Indy and Daytona RC where he crashed, Busch finished in the top ten every race and had a 5.2 average finish. Over the combined events, Busch was tied for having the 3rd best Road Course Track Type Total Speed Ranking.
COTA 2021 – Last year at COTA, Kyle Busch had a great car that ranked among the best. The #18 was viewed as a barometer for the field, and “Performance Wise” I would say he was a factor to win/top five contender. In the race, Busch finished 9th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 6.8 average running position, led 12 laps and ranked as the 6th fastest driver late in a run. I’ll note, Busch had to pit for fuel in the closing laps and was in 3rd on lap 50, which was three laps before the race ending caution.

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Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runner Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions > The Low Tier