COTA Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Todd Gilliland 
COTA Bottom Line – Is Todd Gilliland a good road course racer? We know he raced his way to victory lane last year at COTA in the Truck series, but how did the competition stack up against a Cup field? Teammate, Michael McDowell is in equal equipment, and he can come home with good results from time to time at road courses, so Gilliland is worth a roll of the dice from drivers in his tier.
Road Course Racing Prowess – Last year at road courses in the Truck series, Gilliland of course won at COTA and then at Watkins Glen, the one other road course visited by the Truck series last year he finished 4th. In 2020 in Trucks, Gilliland finished 33rd at the Daytona Road Course due to electrical problems.
COTA 2021 – Todd Gilliland only won once in 2021 in the Truck series, and it came here at COTA! Last year in Texas, Gilliland finished 1st, had a 6.8 average running position, led 8 laps, had the best green flag speed and was the 2nd fastest driver late in a run.

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Brad Keselowski
COTA Bottom Line – Things haven’t been pretty for Brad Keselowski recently at road courses, so don’t set your expectations too high, especially now that he’s in the less competitive #6. On Sunday, I would view him as a mid to high-teens driver at best but prepare for the worst.
Road Course Racing Prowess – Since 2020 at road courses minus last year’s races at Watkins Glen (problems) and the Daytona Road Course (finished 5th which is better than he ran), Keselowski is 7 for 7 at finishing between 13th to 24th and his average finish is 16.8. He’ll be in different equipment this time around and his teammate Buescher has been solid, so there’s hope, but I find it hard to believe his new team fields better equipment then Penske at road courses.
COTA 2021 – Nothing ever looks pretty for Brad Keselowski at road courses, and that includes his performance last year at COTA. In the race, Keselowski finished 19th, had a 21.7 average running position and was the 19th fastest driver late in a run. I’ll note, Keselowski was running in 9th on lap 36, but then on that very lap he spun and lost all of his track position which dropped him back in the running order.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 
COTA Bottom Line – At COTA, look for Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to be a high-teens to low-twenties performer. That matches up with how he performed here last year, and with how he’s typically performed at road courses in recent races.
Road Course Racing Prowess – Last year at road courses minus Sonoma where he had an engine failure, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. had a 17.2 average finish, a 21.6 average running position and his track type Total Speed Ranking over the combined events was the 26th best. Also, on this track type in 2021, Stenhouse finished between 18th to 22nd in 4 of the 7 races. When you extend out his track type history to 2019, Stenhouse has finished between 15th to 22nd, 75% of the time.
COTA 2021 – Last year at COTA, Ricky Stenhouse was a low-twenties performer. In the race, Stenhouse finished 22nd, had a 21.3 average running position and was the 20th fastest driver late in a run. I’ll note he had contact with a spinning Tilley on lap 31, but just prior to that he was in 30th anyways so you can’t exactly say that hurt him.

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