Richmond Toyota Owners 400 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Chase Elliott 
Richmond Bottom Line – At Richmond, look for points leader, Chase Elliott to be a factor. Elliott was extremely strong last fall, and he had a great performance at Phoenix this spring until his race went south late. In the desert, Elliott finished 3rd in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, had a 3.9 average running position, led 50 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best green flag speed and was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Also at Phoenix, Elliott was in 2nd with 28 laps to go before he had a slow pit stop which dropped him back a handful of positions, and then he brought out the final caution when he spun while running in 7th (finished 11th). In 2021 at shorter-flat tracks minus New Hampshire, Elliott had a 6.5 average finish.
Richmond Track History – Chase Elliott ranks among the premiere performers at Richmond. Since fall 2017, Elliott has 4 top fives, 5 top tens and his 8.3 average finish ranks as the 6th best. Last fall, Elliott had a great car that ranked among the best despite his race not being incident free. In the race, Elliott started 13th, finished 2nd in Stage #1, led 58 laps, had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked as the 7th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. During Stage #2 green flag pit stops while leading, Elliott overshot his pit box, damaged his car and then his team had a 36 second pit stop which ultimately dropped him a lap down. That problem makes his 4th place finish very impressive. In spring 2021, Elliott missed the setup like Larson and in that event, he finished 12th and had a 12.4 average running position. In 2020, Elliott finished 5th and had a 6.6 average running position. In terms of speed analytics, Elliott was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking.

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Ross Chastain 
Richmond Bottom Line – Fresh off a win, Ross Chastain doesn’t appear he can do any wrong right now. The Next Gen is a game changer for him, and he’s making the most of the opportunity. Over the last four races heading into the weekend, Chastain’s results are 3rd, 2nd, 2nd and 1st. The most notable of those results pertaining to Richmond is his 2nd at Phoenix. Additionally at Phoenix, Chastain was the fastest driver late in a run, had the 6th best green flag speed, the 7th best Total Speed Ranking and had the 6th best driver rating. On Sunday, I’ll be optimistic and view him as a top five contender.
Richmond Track History – Last fall at Richmond, Ross Chastain had a great performance in the #42. In the race, Chastain started 17th, finished 6th in Stage #1, 7th in Stage #2 and then finished 7th when the checkered flag waved. Additionally, Chastain had a 7.1 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking was the 9th best. Chastain was also caught speeding on pit road at the end of Stage #2, so that makes his result a little more impressive. In spring 2021 in his first start in quality equipment at Richmond he finished 15th, had a 15.8 average running position, was the 9th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 11th best Total Speed Ranking. In his four prior starts at Richmond when he wasn’t in competitive equipment, Chastain went 4 for 4 at finishing between 28th to 36th.

Tyler Reddick 
Richmond Bottom Line – At Richmond, Tyler Reddick doesn’t have a standout track record, but with the way the #8 is running, I have high expectations. They’ve become weekly top five contenders and for the season over the combined events his driver rating is the 4th best. At Phoenix where there’s correlation, Reddick finished 3rd and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking.
Richmond Track History – At Richmond, Tyler Reddick is 3 for 3 at finishing between 11th to 20th and over the combined events he sports a 15.3 average finish and a 15.2 average running position. Last fall, Reddick was clearly a mid-teens performer. In the race he finished 15th, had a 14.8 average running position, had the 15th best Total Speed Ranking and was the 18th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In spring 2021, Reddick finished 20th, had a 14.7 average running position, had the 18th best Total Speed Ranking and was the 21st Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Reddick showed potential in the first half of the race and even spent some time in the top ten, but in the second half he essentially ran mid-teens and back. In 2020 during his track debut, Reddick had his best Richmond performance and finished 11th.

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