Richmond Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
Richmond is “The Action Track”, so buckle up for Sunday for race #7 of the 2022 season. Richmond is a .75 mile oval that I classify as a “Shorter-Flat Track.” It’s a quarter mile shorter than Phoenix, but that’s a great track to look back to for anticipating who’ll run well on Sunday. I view Phoenix as the most similar track on the schedule, so make sure you check out all of our Fantasy NASCAR Speed Analytic Tool Pages.
On Saturday, NASCAR practice was held. Teams only had 20 minutes, and always keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car etc.). Make sure you check out our Richmond Practice Notes and Richmond Practice 5,10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.
Here’s Richmond Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.
Richmond Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Martin Truex Jr. / Start 6th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings/ 5 Lap Average – 6th / 10 Lap Average – 4th/ 15 Lap Average – 3rd/ 20 Lap Average – 5th
Richmond Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. is the premiere performer at Richmond and on Sunday, I think he’ll be a factor. In practice, Truex was fast, he liked his car, and he thought he was close. Plus, if you’re a paint scheme mojo believer, Truex also has Auto Owners Insurance on his car this weekend which he’s had a ton of success with. Every Joe Gibbs Racing team is using a new setup this weekend, and I think the #19 team has a really good one. At Richmond, Truex has been phenomenal. He’s the most recent winner, he’s won 3 of the last 5 races, and his top five finish streak is at 6. Also, over those six races, Truex ranks #1 in the series in terms of average finish (2.2), average running position (4.4), laps led per race (107.5) and driver rating. Last fall, Truex had a great car and raced his way to victory lane, despite getting black flagged right at the start. Despite his setback, Truex finished 8th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, led 80 laps, was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2021, Truex had a great car, but came home an asterisk mark 5th. In the race, Truex finished 2nd in Stage #1 & 2, led 107 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking and was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. On lap 297 during green flag pit stops while he was running in 3rd, Truex was caught speeding on pit road. In 2020, Truex finished 2nd. In the three Richmond races prior to that his results were 1st, 1st and 3rd. So far in 2022, Truex has finished between 7th to 13th in 5 of the 6 races. The lone exception was Phoenix, and he likely would’ve finished in the higher end of that range if he didn’t crash.
DraftKings $9,600/ FanDuel $14,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +900
2) Joey Logano / Start 11th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Speed Rankings 5 Lap Average – 17th / 10 Lap Average – 6th/ 15 Lap Average – 6th/ 20 Lap Average – 4th / 25 Lap Average – 4th/30 Lap Average – 4th
Richmond Fantasy Spin – At Richmond, I have high expectations for Joey Logano. Logano has thrived at “The Action Track”, he was solid at Phoenix a few weeks ago, and he’s one of the premiere performers at shorter-flat tracks. At Richmond, Logano is a two-time winner and in 4 of the last 5 races he’s finished in the top five. Over the three races since 2020, Logano has a 3.7 average finish, a 5.5 average running position, he’s averaged leading 62.3 laps per race and his driver rating is the 3rd best. Last fall at Richmond, Logano finished 5th and had a 4.9 average running position. In spring 2021, Logano had a strong showing and was a factor to win. In the race, Logano finished 3rd in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, 3rd overall, led 49 laps, had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. I’ll also note, Logano was actually the race leader before the final caution came out. In 2020, Logano also finished 3rd. Phoenix has correlation to Richmond and a few weeks ago at that venue he finished 8th, had the 8th best Total Speed Ranking and had an 8.5 average running position. In 2021 at shorter-flat tracks, Logano finished between 2nd to 5th in 4 of the 5 races and had a 5.0 average finish. In practice, Joey Logano said his car felt good and had good speed over a long run. Logano made a 49 lap run, so he should definitely know what he’s talking about.
DraftKings $9,200/ FanDuel $12,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +1000
Further Recommended Reading: Richmond Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Richmond Projections, FanDuel Richmond Projections
3) Ryan Blaney / Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 2-7 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings/ 5 Lap Average – 1st / 10 Lap Average – 1st/ 15 Lap Average – 1st / 20 Lap Average – 1st / 25 Lap Average – 1st /30 Lap Average – 2nd
Richmond Fantasy Spin – Richmond has had Ryan Blaney’s number, but perhaps the Next Gen will be a game changer for him? This year on the track, Blaney’s been showing up with speed every week and ranks #1 in terms of green flag speed over the combined events. At Phoenix, the most similar track visited, Blaney finished 4th, led 143 laps and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. His afternoon is even more impressive when you take into account, Blaney got an early speeding penalty while leading. Blaney has always been better at Phoenix though, so that doesn’t necessarily mean things will be different this time around at Richmond, but there’s hope!. At Richmond, Ryan Blaney had results of 10th and 11th last year, but in his 9 starts prior to that he finished 17th or worse every race. Last fall, Blaney finished 5th in Stage #1, finished around 12th in Stage #2 and then 10th when the checkered flag waved. That marks Blaney’s first and only top ten at Richmond, ever! Additionally, Blaney had a 9.1 average running position and had the 12th best Total Speed Ranking. In spring 2021, Blaney had his 2nd best Richmond race and finished 11th. I wouldn’t focus on any of his starts prior to that and just accept the fact he was quite uncompetitive. In practice, Blaney was a stopwatch standout, and as you’ll see in the Speed Ranking row, he ranked #1 all the way up to 30 lap averages.
DraftKings $9,400/ FanDuel $9,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +1300
