Talladega Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Martin Truex Jr.
Talladega Fantasy Spin – At Talladega, use the K.I.S.S principle with Martin Truex and avoid him, or at least approach with extreme caution! In 10 of the last 11 Talladega races, he’s finished south of 20th, so that’s a pretty clear warning sign about the risk. That said, Truex’s one result south of 20th was last fall, and he’s looked sporty at superspeedways this year. In 2022 on this track type, Truex won the opening two Stages in the Daytona 500 and finished 13th (involved in a wreck) and at Atlanta he finished 13th. All of that said, I still think he’s incredibly risky.
Talladega Track History – Last fall at Talladega, Truex had a good luck charm or something, because he had his first Talladega result better than 20th since 2016. Last October, Truex finished 12th and had a 14.4 average running position. In 7 of the 8 Talladega races prior to that, Truex finished between 20th to 26th. In spring 2021, Truex showed potential, but his race wasn’t incident free. In the event he crashed on the last lap of Stage #2 while running in the top ten (damaged looked moderate but he continued), and then with 7 laps to go while running in the top five he slowed because of a vibration. Then with 4 laps to go, Truex’s tire fell off and it brought out the final caution which led to his 31st. In fall 2020, Truex was competitive, but finished 23rd. In the race, Truex finished 8th in Stage #1, won Stage #2 and led 6 laps. With 10 laps to go until the scheduled distance he was in 7th, but then with 2 laps to go he was swept up in the carnage. Then during over-time, Truex crashed again. In spring 2020, Truex started on the pole, led 4 laps, didn’t place in any Stage and finished 23rd when the checkered flag waved.

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Michael McDowell
Talladega Fantasy Spin – Michael McDowell is always a popular low/mid-tier pick at superspeedways, but historically he’s been better at Daytona. That said, his level of performance at Talladega has picked up recently and over the last five races minus fall 2020 his average finish is 10.75. This year at Daytona, the other “Big Superspeedway”, McDowell finished 2nd in his Duel 150 and then 7th in the Daytona 500.
Talladega Track History – Michael McDowell hasn’t been bad at Talladega in recent races, as you read above and over the last five minus fall 2020 where he had overheating problems his average finish is 10.75. Last fall, McDowell finished 17th and had a 25.1 average running position. On this track type, McDowell typically buys his time until the very end to move forward, so I wouldn’t read into it since that race had an abrupt ending. In spring 2021, McDowell started 23rd, finished 3rd and had a 10.2 average running position. With 5 laps to go before the scheduled distance he was in 5th. In fall 2020, McDowell had a short race and finished 36th. In the race he was in 5th on lap 74, but then shortly a after that he called it a race due to overheating. In the two Dega races prior to that, McDowell’s results were 18th and 5th.

Cole Custer
Talladega Fantasy Spin – At Talladega, look for Cole Custer to be respectable. Custer was solid in both 2021 Talladega races and overall minus fall 2020 where he crashed, Custer’s average finish is 15th. At “Big Superspeedways” (Daytona and Talladega) since 2021 his average finish is 15.8. In this year’s Daytona 500, Custer finished 20th.
Talladega Track History – Cole Custer had a solid 2021 at Talladega and for the season his average finish was 11.5. Last fall, Custer finished 13th and had a 14.8 average running position. In spring 2021, Custer had his best Dega performance and in that race he finished 10th and had a 13.4 average running position. With 5 laps to go until the scheduled distance before the caution that caused overtime, Custer was in 14th. In fall 2020, Custer finished 10th in Stage #1, but finished 31st when the checkered flag waved. On lap 106, Custer was in 10th, but then on lap 107 he was collected in the “Big One.” In spring 2020, Custer finished 8th in Stage #2, but 22nd when the checkered flag waved. With 8 laps to go Custer was running in 12th, but he’s a driver who had to pit for fuel at the end which put him back in the pack. For the afternoon, Custer’s average running position was 12.0.

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