Talladega Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings/ Predictions
On Sunday, buckle up and get out your good luck charm, because NASCAR will be racing at Talladega! This is NASCAR’s biggest, wildest and most chaotic oval on the circuit. Talladega can be outright brutal because drivers can get wrecked while leading just as easily as they can be running near the back. 3 of the last 4 Talladega races have had a last lap pass for the win. All of that said, educated decisions can be made and strategies do exist (AKA… build DFS lineups heavy on place differential) to help you navigate this treacherous track.
No practices were held for Talladega, but they did qualify. Here’s the Talladega Starting Lineup.
Talladega Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Ryan Blaney
Start 22nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Fantasy Spin – Ryan Blaney is a super-elite performer at Talladega and on Sunday, there’s no question he’ll be tough to beat. The #12 team is performing at a high-level every week (In 5 of the last 6 races he’s finished between 4th to 7th), and Blaney ranks among the premiere performers at superspeedways. At “Big Superspeedways” over the last ten races, Blaney has 3 wins, 5 top fives, 7 top tens and a 7.1 average finish (minus the 2021 Daytona 500 where he crashed in the early “Big One”). At Talladega, Blaney has been stout and in 2 of the last 5 races he’s raced his way to victory lane. Last fall, Blaney was strong, but finished 15th. When the race came to its abrupt ending in the rain, Blaney was simply mid-pack. In the race, Blaney finished 6th in Stage #1 and had a 9.8 average running position. In spring 2021, Blaney finished 2nd in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, led 11 laps and then finished 9th when the checkered flag waved. With 5 laps to go until the scheduled distance, Blaney was running in 2nd. In fall 2020, Blaney was fast but finished a misleading 25th after getting caught up in the late carnage. In the race, Blaney led 10 laps, finished 7th in Stage #2, was running in 9th with 2 to go (scheduled distance) but was caught up in a late crash. In spring 2020, Blaney was the class of the field and raced his way to victory lane. In that race he finished 6th in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2 and led 63 laps. In fall 2019, Blaney finished 10th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, led 35 laps and raced his way to victory lane. What makes his win a little more impressive is that on lap 34 while leading coming to pit road, he spun and got a speeding penalty. At Daytona to start the year, Blaney led 22 laps and finished 3rd in his Duel 150, and in the Daytona 500 he led 36 laps and finished 4th.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +1000
Further Recommended Reading – Talladega Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Talladega Playability Value Chart, FanDuel Talladega Playability Value Chart
2) Joey Logano
Start 13th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Fantasy Spin – Three-time Talladega winner, Joey Logano should be on your short list of favorites. Logano’s mastery of the draft is second to none and I’ve long viewed him as the perfect combination of being smart and aggressive. One big plus Logano has on his side is that he’ll have a fast hot rod. At Daytona in the Next Gen’s debut, Austin Cindric won the 500 and Logano came close to winning his Duel 150, but crashed on the last lap. At Talladega, Logano ranks among the elite, but he’s had quite a few problems in recent races. Last fall, Logano finished 2nd in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, had the 3rd best driver rating, led 9 laps and finished 3rd when the checkered flag waved. In spring 2021, Logano had a great car but was wrecked on the last lap of Stage #1 while running in 3rd. Prior to his demise he led 10 laps. In fall 2020, I thought Logano had the best car, but he finished an asterisk mark 26th. In the race, Logano had the best driver rating, led a race high 45 laps, and was the leader with 2 to go (scheduled distance), but then later that lap he crashed which led to his poor finish. In spring 2020, Logano finished 3rd in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, led 33 laps, had a race best 4.2 average running position, and was running in 3rd with 8 laps to go, but finished a misleading 17th after fuel came into the equation at the end and he had to pit. In the five Talladega races prior to that, Logano had 1 win and a 5th place average finish.
DraftKings $10,300 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +1200
3) Denny Hamlin
Start 7th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Fantasy Spin – Denny Hamlin’s one of the premiere performers at superspeedways and at Talladega, you can count on him to be a contender. Hamlin’s a five-time winner on this track type (2 at Talladega), and you really can’t make a better default pick than him. At Talladega, Hamlin’s a recent winner (fall 2020), and in 5 of the last 7 races he’s finished in the top 7. In the two he didn’t, Hamlin wrecked. Over that stretch minus the two races he crashed, Hamlin’s average finish is an impressive 3.8. Last fall, Hamlin finished 7th and led 6 laps. In spring 2021, Hamlin had a great car that I would argue was subjectively the best, but he finished an asterisk mark 32nd. In the race, Hamlin led a race high 43 laps (all before lap 92 where he had problems), finished 4th in Stage #1 and was the leader shortly before “Manufacturer pit stops” in Stage #2 where his downfall began. Around lap 92 when he came to pit road, Hamlin was caught speeding. Then when he was serving his penalty, Hamlin was caught speeding again. Then on the last lap of Stage #2, Hamlin crashed which marked the end of his race. In fall 2020, Hamlin had a stellar showing and raced his way to victory lane after making a last lap pass for the win. In addition to finishing 1st, Hamlin led 26 laps. In spring 2020, Hamlin finished 4th and led 18 laps. In fall 2019, Hamlin finished 3rd.
DraftKings $9,100 / FanDuel $13,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +1400
