Dover Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Dover! The “Monster Mile” is a unique 1.0-mile concrete oval that is physically demanding, and drivers have to get up on the wheel if they’re going to be fast. The only chance drivers will be able to take a breather, is under caution, and they better hope it’s not them because mayhem is always lurking, and Dover has “Big One” potential.
On Saturday, practice was held for Dover. Teams only had 20 minutes, and always keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, maybe some want to qualify near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Dover Practice Notes and Dover 5,10,15,20 and 25 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.
Here’s Dover Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.
Dover Full Field Rankings
1) Kyle Larson
Start 3rd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 4th / 10 Lap Average – 1st / 15 Lap Average – 2nd / 20 Lap Average – 2nd
Dover Breakdown – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Dover, and on Sunday, he’ll be the favorite. Larson’s a recent winner at the “Monster Mile”, and over his last three races his results are 1st, 2nd and 3rd. In his career at Dover, Larson has finished in the top five 53.8% of the time and in the top ten 76.9% of the time. Over Larson’s last three Dover races, he has a 2.0 average finish, a 2.8 average running position and he’s averaged leading 139 laps per race. Last year in the #5, Larson won Stage #1, won Stage #2, had a 1.8 average running position, led 263 laps and finished 2nd. In terms of speed analytics, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best green flag speed and was the fastest driver late in a run. In fall 2019 in his next most recent race, Larson led 154 laps and raced his way to victory lane. In spring 2019, Larson finished 3rd. Heading into the weekend, the #5 team is starting to click off good results and in 3 of the last 4 races he’s finished in the top 5. In practice, the #5 was a stopwatch standout. In the session, Larson had the best 10 lap average and ranked second in terms of 15 and 20 lap averages. Following practice when Larson was interviewed, he said his car was really good. I’m going to choose to believe him.
DraftKings $11,800 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +450
2) Chase Elliott
Start 4th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 5th / 10 Lap Average – 3rd / 15 Lap Average – 1st / 20 Lap Average – 1st
Dover Breakdown – Chase Elliott is a master at the “Monster Mile”, and on Sunday, look for him to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. Elliott’s a former winner and in 8 of the last 11 races he’s finished in the top 5. Since fall 2018 minus the two races he had problems, Elliott’s average finish is 3.5. Last year, Elliott started in the rear of the field, but that wasn’t a problem. Despite that early setback, Elliott finished 4th in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, had a 5.6 average running position, had the 2nd best green flag speed, was the 2nd fastest driver late in a run and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2020 race #2, Elliott had a short afternoon and finished 39th after completing just six laps and wrecking. In race #1 2020, Elliott had a great race. In the event, Elliott started 1st, finished 5th, led 27 laps and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2022, points leader Chase Elliott has only finished in the top five once, but since March his average finish is 8.6 and he’s had a result in the top 14 every race. In practice, Elliott had the 3rd best 10 lap average and then he ranked 1st in terms of 15 and 20 lap averages.
DraftKings $11,300 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +900
Further Recommended Reading: Dover Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Dover Projections, FanDuel Dover Projections
3) Ross Chastain
Start 7th / Projected Finish Range 2-7 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 15th
Dover Breakdown – At Dover, you can’t count out Ross Chastain. The watermelon smasher can do no wrong. The season is young, but so far he’s won twice and has a series best 6 top fives. Since March, minus Richmond and Bristol Dirt, Chastain has finished in the top five every race and has a 2.3 average finish. Dover is a physical track where drivers have to get up on the wheel, and you better believe Chastain can step up to the challenge. Last year at Dover in the #42, Chastain finished 15th, had a 14.5 average running position and had the 13th best Total Speed Ranking. Personally, I don’t think any his starts are really all that relevant because of how strong he’s been this season.
DraftKings $8,600 / FanDuel $9,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +1600
