Darlington Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday afternoon, NASCAR will be racing at Darlington! “The Track Too Tough To Tame” will mark race #11 of the 2022 season. Darlington is a unique 1.33 mile egg shaped oval where tire wear is extreme, and the driver is a difference maker. Often times at Darlington, you’ll see the same drivers finish up front, since this race is in the drivers hands more then others.
On Saturday, practice was held for Darlington. Teams only had 15 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Darlington Practice Notes and Darlington 5,10 and 15 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.
Here’s Darlington Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.
Darlington Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Kyle Larson
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 6th/ 10 Lap Average – 5th/ 15 Lap Average – 1st
Darlington Breakdown – Kyle Larson has performed at a super-elite level at Darlington and on Sunday, he’ll be a factor. Larson has never won at “The Track Too Tough To Tame”, but he currently has three straight runner-up’s and his average finish over his eight starts is 5.5. Over Larson’s last four Darlington races, he has a 2.3 average finish, a 4.0 average running position and he’s averaged leading 121 laps per race. Last fall, Larson had a great race. In the event he finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 156 laps, had a 3rd place average running position and then finished 2nd hot on Denny Hamlin’s wheels. In terms of speed analytics, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking and was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In spring 2021, Larson also had a great car and in that race he finished 2nd, giving Truex a run for his money late. What makes Larson’s good run more impressive is that his race wasn’t incident free. During the Stage #1 caution after he just finished 4th he was caught speeding on pit road. In that race, Larson finished 4th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, ranked as the 2nd fastest driver late in a run and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2019 in his next most recent race, Larson finished 3rd in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, led 44 laps and finished 2nd. In fall 2018, Larson dominated, but poor restarts at the end cost him what looked like a certain victory. In the race he won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 284 laps and finished 3rd when the checkered flag waved. When it comes to racing at high-tire wear tracks, Larson is one of the best in the business. He raced his way to victory lane at Auto Club this spring, and over the six combined races at high-tire wear tracks since 2021 his average finish is a series best 4.8. In practice, Kyle Larson liked his car and had great speed on the stopwatch. His 15 lap average ranked as the best. Also take note, Larson tested at Darlington earlier this year.
DraftKings $11,000 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +400
2) Ross Chastain
Start 8th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 8th
Darlington Breakdown – Ross Chastain can do no wrong, and at “The Track Too Tough To Tame”, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if this aggressive driver finds himself in victory lane. Chastain had a stellar showing last fall, and then when you factor in how much better he’s been running this year, it’s clear he could be poised to have a big afternoon on Sunday. Over the last nine races heading into the weekend, Chastain has 2 wins, 6 results in the top 3 and only two results south of 5th. Dover has correlation, and at that venue he led 86 laps and finished 3rd. Last fall at Darlington, Chastain was extremely competitive. In the race he started 23rd, finished 9th in Stage #1 and then 3rd when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Chastain was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and his Total Speed Ranking was the 5th best. Over the final segment when the trophy was on the line, Chastain was the fastest driver on the track. In spring 2021, Chastain finished 15th, had a 15.3 average running position and had the 23rd best Total Speed Ranking. That said, his speed over the segments were 28th, 31st, 16th and 11th. Early pit strategy where he stayed out on old tires longer then anyone else hurt him, because his car was pretty good. In practice, Chastain seemed to be pretty pleased with his car.
DraftKings $9,700 / FanDuel $11,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +1000
Further Recommended Reading – Darlington Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Darlington Playability Value Chart, FanDuel Darlington Playability Value Chart
3) Martin Truex Jr.
Start 4th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 30th/ 10 Lap Average – 19th/ 15 Lap Average – 5th
Darlington Breakdown – Martin Truex Jr. is a fantasy ace at Darlington who’ll be tough to beat. Truex is the defending spring winner, and since 2020 minus fall 2020 where he got into the wall late while battling for the lead, Truex has a 5.3 average finish. Last year, I would argue nobody was better at Darlington than Truex. In fall 2021, Truex had a great car and finished 4th, despite making an unexpected pit stop (lap 162) and getting a speeding penalty (lap 319). In terms of speed analytics, Truex was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In spring 2021, Truex put on a display of domination. In the race he won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 248 laps, earned a perfect driver rating, was the fastest driver late in a run and had the best Total Speed Ranking, having fielded the fastest car on the track over the four segments. In fall 2020, Truex was the class of the field. In the race he won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 196 laps, ran the most fastest laps (90) but finished a misleading 22nd. Late in the race, Truex was reeling in leader Chase Elliott, but as he was passing him they had contact which led to both of them slamming into the wall. In the two spring 2020 Darlington races, Truex had results of 6th and 10th. In 2021 at high-tire wear tracks, Truex had a series best 4.0 average finish.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +700
