Charlotte Coca Cola 600 Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday, NASCAR will race at Charlotte for the Coca Cola 600. This crown jewel event is a test of endurance for the teams, the machines and many at home. This is a unique race in many ways. Not only is it the longest race of the year, but it’s also broken up into four Stages of 100/100/100/100 laps. The Coca Cola 600 will start at 6:18 PM (green flag start time), and the race will transition into a night race in the second half of the event.

Charlotte is a 1.5-mile D-shaped oval. It’s not quite the shape of Kansas and Las Vegas, but I would really study those two high-speed 1.5-mile tracks since they have correlation in the limited races held with the Next Gen.

On Saturday, practice was held for Charlotte. Teams only had 15 minutes, and keep in mind, teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Charlotte Practice Notes and Charlotte 5 and 10 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.

Here’s Charlotte Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.

Charlotte Fantasy NASCAR Full Field Rankings

1) Kyle Busch
Start 4th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 18th / 10 Lap Average – 10th
Charlotte Breakdown – Kyle Busch is a super-elite performer at Charlotte, and on Sunday night in the Coca Cola 600, the road to victory lane will likely go thru him. Busch has thrived at Charlotte, and in 2022 at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, he’s arguably been the best. At Charlotte, Busch is a recent winner and over the last five races minus 2020 #2 where he had a misleading result, Busch’s average finish is 3rd. Last year at Charlotte, Busch was one of the best. In the race he finished 6th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, 3rd in Stage #3 and then 3rd when the checkered flag waved. Additionally, Busch was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run, and ranked 4th for Green Flag Speed and Total Speed Rankings. In 2020 #2, Busch finished just outside the top ten in Stage #1, but then during the Stage #2 restart he cut his tire which led to his asterisk mark 29th. In the 2020 Coca Cola 600, Busch had a strong showing. In the race he finished 6th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, 5th in Stage #3, had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking and finished 4th when the checkered flag waved. In the three races prior to that, Busch had results of 3rd, 3rd and 1st. This year at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Busch has been impressive and is one of two drivers who are 2 for 2 at finishing in the top five (3.5 average finish). At these venues, Busch should’ve won at Las Vegas (4th), and at Kansas he overcame a pit penalty to finish 3rd. Between the combined races at high-speed 1.5’s, Busch has the 2nd best Driver Rating, is tied for having the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and has the 3rd best average running position. In practice, Busch said his car was good, and he’s usually not an optimistic guy so you can be confident he’ll be strong.
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2) Martin Truex Jr.
Start 14th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 1st / 10 Lap Average – 1st
Charlotte Breakdown – Martin Truex Jr. has been one of the best at 1.5-mile high-speed intermediate tracks this year, so look for him to be strong at Charlotte. In 2022 at similar 1.5’s, Truex is tied for having the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking, is tied for the 5th best average finish (7.0), has the 5th best average running position (8.8) and his driver rating is the 6th best. I’ll note, that average finish underrates him. He was poised to finish 2nd at Las Vegas until the late caution came out, and at Kansas he had to overcome problems to finish 6th. At Charlotte, Truex is a three-time winner and since 2017 minus 2021 where he had problems, Truex has a 3.8 average finish, a 6.9 average running position and he’s averaged leading 87.8 laps per race. Last year, Truex had an off-race and looked like a low double-digit driver, but his evening wasn’t incident free and he finished an asterisk mark 29th. During the final Stage on lap 333 while running in 12th, Truex had a tire go down which caused damage and led to an unexpected pit stop which dropped him quite a few laps down dooming his evening. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, he ranked 12th. n 2020 race #2, Truex finished 9th, but I’m not going to read into that result too much because early in the race he scrubbed the wall which led to an extra pit stop during an early caution. In the 2020 Coca Cola 600, Truex had a phenomenal car. In the race he finished 6th, but he performed better than his result. In the race, Truex finished 2nd in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, 4th in Stage #3, had a 2.8 average running position, the best driver rating, led 87 laps and ran the most fastest laps (56). In terms of speed analytics, Truex had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best Green Flag Speed and was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2019, Truex got into the wall while leading on lap 73, but he bounced back and still raced his way to victory lane. In the three Charlotte races prior to that, Truex had results of 2nd, 1st and 3rd.
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Recommended Reading: Charlotte Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Charlotte Playability Value Chart, FanDuel Charlotte Playability Value Chart

3) Chase Elliott
Start 13th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 9th / 10 Lap Average – 4th
Charlotte Breakdown – Chase Elliott has performed at a super-elite level at Charlotte, and you can count on him to be a contender. Over the last four Charlotte races, Elliott has 1 win, a 2.5 average finish and he’s had a result in the top 4 every race. In 2021, Elliott had a great performance in the Coca Cola 600. In the race, Elliott finished 2nd in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, 4th in Stage #3 and then 2nd when the checkered flag waved. Additionally, Elliott had a 2.6 average running position, led 22 laps, had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking, the 3rd best Green Flag Speed and was the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2020 #2, Elliott started mid-pack, finished 9th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, led 28 laps and of course raced his way to victory lane. In the 2020 Coca Cola 600, Elliott came close to winning, but a late caution with 2 laps to go cost him the win. During that caution he pitted from the lead, which dropped him outside the top ten but he rallied back to finish 2nd. In the race, Elliott led 28 laps, was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. This year at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks, Elliott has been strong. He finished 9th at Las Vegas and last race at Kansas he finished 3rd in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2 and was a top five contender until he had a flat tire.
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