Sonoma Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Breakdown
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Sonoma! Traditional Sonoma! The carousel portion of the track is now gone, and the chute is back. One impact of that track change is that the race is now longer in terms of lap count. With the carousel, Sonoma was 90 laps. Without it, Sonoma is back to being a 110-lap race. Take note, a longer race can have an impact in certain fantasy NASCAR formats.
Sonoma is a high tire-wear technical 11 turn road course (some say 12). Joey Logano has called Sonoma the “Short track of road courses.” This isn’t an “attack the track” road course, this is a race where drivers need to be smooth off corners and manage their tires.
On Saturday, NASCAR held a short practice session for Sonoma. Keep in mind in practices, teams have different agenda’s for how they want to approach the sessions (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Sonoma Practice Notes, Sonoma 5 and 10 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet and Sonoma Practice Speeds.
Here’s the Sonoma Starting Lineup.
Somona Full Field Fantasy NASCAR Rankings
1) Chase Elliott
Start 2nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 1st
Sonoma Breakdown – Chase Elliott is the road course king, and at Sonoma, there’s no question he’ll be tough to beat. Elliott’s a 7-time winner on this track type, and although he’s winless at Sonoma, he’s certainly been no slouch. At Sonoma since 2017 minus 2019 where his engine blew up while running in 3rd, Elliott has a 4.7 average finish. Last year at Sonoma, Elliott had a phenomenal performance. In the race he finished 2nd, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking, led 13 laps and had a 4.8 average running position. In 2019, Elliott had a great car but finished an asterisk mark 37th after his engine blew up while running in 3rd. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Elliott ranked as the 3rd best overall and in the three segments he competed he had speed rankings of 7th, 3rd and 3rd. In 2018, Elliott finished 4th. At road courses since 2018 minus Sonoma 2019, Daytona RC 2021 (poised to win until the “Rain Caution”) and last year’s Charlotte Roval Race (Harvick wrecked him), Elliott has a 2.2 average finish. This spring at COTA in the Next Gen’s Road Course racing debut, the #9 car really came to life in the second half of the race and when the checkered flag waved, Elliott finished 4th. In practice, Elliott had a great car. He was fast, liked his balance, and Larson notably viewed him as having a better car.
DraftKings $10,400 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +550
Further Recommended Reading = Sonoma Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Sonoma Playability Value Chart, FanDuel Sonoma Playability Value Chart
2) Ross Chastain
Start 7th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 4th
Sonoma Breakdown – At Sonoma, look for Ross Chastain to be a contender. Chastain’s a strong road course racer, and this spring in the Next Gen’s Road Course Racing debut, Chastain raced his way to victory lane. Additionally at COTA, Chastain earned the best driver rating, led the most laps (31), ran the most fastest laps and had the best Total Speed Ranking. Chastain’s win certainly didn’t come out of nowhere though, since 2021 at non-roval road courses, Chastain’s 6.2 average finish is the 2nd best in the series. Also over the five non-roval road courses since 2021, Chastain has the 3rd best driver rating and the 4th best average running position. Last year at Sonoma, Chastain had a solid showing and finished 7th, despite starting way back in 29th. I’ll also note from that race, Chastain was the 6th Fastest Driver Late In A Run
DraftKings $9,800 / FanDuel $12,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +1200
3) Kyle Larson
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 2nd
Sonoma Breakdown – Kyle Larson is the defending champion at Sonoma, and on Sunday, I think he’ll be a factor. Larson looked lost at COTA in the Next Gen’s Road Course Racing debut this spring, but Hendrick Motorsports has had over two months to adjust, so I think he’ll be just fine. Last year at COTA, Larson clobbered the competition from the pole, and there’s no question he had the best car. In the race, Larson won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 57 laps, ran the most fastest laps by a wide margin (29, next highest was 6), earned a near perfect driver rating was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the best Total Speed Ranking. His speed over the segments were 1st, 1st, 2nd and then 1st. In 4 of the 5 Sonoma races prior to that in his old ride, Larson finished between 10th to 15th. Last year at road courses minus Daytona RC and Road America where he had problems, Larson had a 1.6 average finish and had a result in the top 3 every race. Heading into the weekend, the #5 team is running pretty well and since Bristol Dirt minus Darlington, Larson has a 6.2 average finish.
DraftKings $10,600 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +650
