Nashville Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Breakdown
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Nashville! This will be year #2 in “Music City”, but obviously the first race here with the Next Gen. Nashville is a 1.33-concrete D-shaped oval that has been compared to many tracks on the schedule, for me, I view it as a mix of Dover and shorter-flat tracks. I can view some 1.5-mile tracks having correlation, such as Kansas.
On Friday night, NASCAR held a 50-minute practice session so teams could tune-up for Nashville, and also so NBC could get in a telecast practice session. With NASCAR having an extended practice session, make sure you really study that session. Make sure you check out our Nashville Practice Notes, Nashville 5,10,15 and 20 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet and Nashville Practice Speeds.
Here’s the Nashville Starting Lineup.
Nashville Full Field Fantasy NASCAR Rankings
1) Ross Chastain
Start 7th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 7th / 10 Lap Average – 4th / 15 Lap Average – 3rd / 20 Lap Average – 1st
Sonoma Breakdown – Ross Chastain finished runner-up last year at Nashville, on Sunday, I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes one position better. The #1 team is showing up with speed every week and over the last six races heading into the weekend, Chastain has the best Total Speed Ranking in the series. In terms of season to date long run speed, Chastain ranks #1 in the series. This weekend, the #1 team definitely showed up with speed and in practice, Chastain had the 4th best ten lap average, and his 20-lap average was the best. Last year when Chastain finished 2nd at Nashville, I’ll note his fuel mileage situation at the end certainly helped, because he could run harder than others coming to the finish line. In terms of PROS Rankings, I have him slated as having the 7th best car. Dover is arguably the most similar track visited, and at that venue, Chastain finished 3rd, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and led the 2nd most laps (86). At shorter-flat tracks this year, Chastain’s been a top five contender in all the events (ran well at Richmond until he had contact with Blaney, 3rd in Stage #1 & 2).
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $12,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +900
2) Kyle Larson
Start 3rd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 3rd / 10 Lap Average – 2nd / 15 Lap Average – 4th
Sonoma Breakdown – Defending Nashville winner, Kyle Larson will be a contender in “Music City.” Last year, Larson was the class of the field and easily raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Larson had a 1.4 average running position, led 264 laps, ran 133 fastest laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking, the best Green Flag Speed and was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Nobody had anything for Larson, and he was an easy #1 for our PROS Rankings. Dover is a similar track that has a concrete surface like Nashville, and at that venue in May, Larson’s race was anything but incident free, but he still managed to come home 6th. At shorter-flat tracks this year, Larson was a top five contender at both Phoenix (engine blew up) and Richmond (5th). This weekend, Larson is missing his crew chief and some other key personnel. If weather really becomes a factor, his crew chief missing could become more of a variable. In practice, Larson was fast and as you’ll see above, Larson had the 2nd best 10 lap average and the 4th best 15 lap average.
DraftKings $11,600 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +750
Further Recommended Reading = Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Playability Value Chart, FanDuel Playability Value Chart
3) Chase Elliott
Start 4th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 14th / 10 Lap Average – 11th / 15 Lap Average – 9th / 20 Lap Average – 4th
Sonoma Breakdown – Chase Elliott will be a contender at Nashville. Elliott had a double-asterisk mark result last year in “Music City” but make no mistake he was one of the best. In our PROS Rankings for last year’s event, I have Elliott ranked as having the 3rd best car. In the race, Elliott had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking and over the segments he had speed rankings of 5th, 9th, 3rd and then 17th. On lap 240 at the start of the final green flag run, Elliott was running in 4th, but he had to conserve fuel which made him slow over the last quarter of the event. Following the race, NASCAR DQ’ed him for five loose Lugnuts. In the results column you’ll see a 39th, but technically he crossed the finish line in 13th. I view Dover as the most similar track and at that venue in May, Elliott raced his way to victory lane, led 73 laps and had the best Total Speed Ranking. At shorter-flat tracks this year, Elliott has some misleading results but his Total Speed Ranking on that sub-track type is the 6th best. In practice, Elliott gave his team positive feedback about his car and his ten lap average was the 11th best.
DraftKings $10,700 / FanDuel $13,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +1000
