Road America Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings

William Byron
Road America Fantasy Spin – At Road America, I’m going to view William Byron as a risky top ten contender. Byron was fast last year until pit strategy shuffled him back, and this year at road courses he’s run well in the combined events and has a 10.5 average finish, the 12th best Total Speed Ranking and in the results column, you’ll see results of 9th (Sonoma) and 12th (COTA). In 2021 on this track type, Byron had quite a few misleading results, but his track type Total Speed Ranking was the 6th best. Heading into the weekend, Byron only has 1 top ten over the last 9 races. If it wasn’t for his ongoing long running bad stint, I would have him as a Top Tier Elite Pick.
Road America Track History – Last year at Road America, William Byron had a great car, but he came home with a clunker result. In 2021, Byron started 1st, but he certainly didn’t finish there. When the checkered flag waved, Byron finished an asterisk mark 33rd. In the race, Byron led 15 laps, won Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2 but then in the final Stage around lap 48 he had a major off-roading moment which drop kicked him in the running order back into the 30’s. Him doing good in the opening Stages ultimately hurt his chances to win and had him badly positioned in the last Stage. Just prior to his major off-roading moment he was running in the mid-teens. In terms of speed analytics, Byron was the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 9th best Total Speed Ranking. To highlight his Total Speed Ranking, Byron’s speed over the segments were 1st, 4th, 9th and then 26th.

Tyler Reddick
Road America Fantasy Spin – At Road America, Tyler Reddick should be strong and be a top ten contender, if he can avoid problems. Problems often haven’t been far though, and in 6 of the last 8 races heading into the weekend he’s finished outside the top 15. This year at road courses, Reddick finished 5th at COTA, and then at Sonoma he had a polar opposite result and finished a clunker 35th. At road courses since last year’s Road America race minus Indy and Sonoma 2022, Reddick has a 6.25 average finish.
Road America Track History – Tyler Reddick was strong at Road America last year. In the race, Reddick started 4th, finished 4th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 5 laps, had an 8.1 average running position and earned the 4th best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, Reddick had the best Total Speed Ranking and then ranked 5th for both Green Flag Speed and Speed Late In A Run. I’ll note despite his #1 Total Speed Ranking, Reddick was faster in the first half of the race then he was in the second half. In terms of speed by segment his speed rankings were 4th, 2nd, 10th and then 11th.

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Michael McDowell
Road America Fantasy Spin – At Road America, look for Michael McDowell to run well and compete for a top ten, but I’ll note buzz kill results are never that far from him on this track type. In 2022 at road courses in the Next Gen, McDowell has an 8.0 average finish, the 12th best Total Speed Ranking and a 13.4 average running position. At Sonoma a few weeks ago, McDowell finished 3rd and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. Road America could be a wild race, and this year in “Wild Races” where attrition has been high, McDowell’s been a top ten machine.
Road America Track History – Michael McDowell showed potential last year at Road America, but when the checkered flag waved he finished an asterisk mark 30th. Late in Stage #1, McDowell was busted speeding on pit road which sent him to the back (was in 13th before that) and then later on lap 35 while he was running around 9th, he was shown to have quite a bit of damage to his nose. He then faded back after that and then on lap 57 he made a late pit stop rolling the dice hoping to catch a late caution. At that point following his damage though, he was doomed to a mid-twenties result.

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Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions >The Low Tier