Road America Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Chase Elliott
Road America Fantasy Spin – Defending Road America winner, Chase Elliott will be the driver to beat. Elliott’s the undisputed road course king, and last year at Road America he started in the back, but still managed to race his way to victory lane in dominant fashion. This year at road courses in the Next Gen, Elliott has been one of the best. At COTA, Elliott finished 4th and at Sonoma, I would argue he likely had the best car and probably would’ve won if he didn’t have his pit road problem (finished 8th, led 26 laps, 5th best Total Speed Ranking). Between the combined events, Elliott’s Total Speed Ranking is the 4th best. Overall, at road courses, Elliott’s a 7-time winner and since 2018 minus Sonoma 2019 (engine blew up while running in 3rd), Daytona RC 2021 (walking away with the win until the rain caution) and last year’s race at the Charlotte Roval (Harvick wrecked him), Elliott has a 2.6 average finish.
Road America Track History – Last year at Road America, Chase Elliott started back in 34th after not posting a qualifying lap, but was that a problem for the road course king? Absolutely not! Elliott charged up thru the field and once he got to the front in the final Stage, it was game over for the competition and his margin of victory was 5.7 seconds. In the race, Elliott led 24 of the final 25 laps, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking, the 2nd best Green Flag Speed, was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the best Driver Rating by a healthy margin. To further highlight his speed analytics, Elliott was the fastest driver in both the 3rd and 4th segments of the race, and the drivers who were faster than him in both green flag speeds and speed late in a run, both had asterisk mark results, so you can probably view him as the true #1 in those speed analytics as well.

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Ross Chastain
Road America Fantasy Spin – At Road America, Ross Chastain will be a factor. Chastain raced his way to victory lane at COTA this spring, and a few weeks ago at Sonoma he spun, but still managed to finish 7th. Between the combined 2022 road course races, Chastain has the best Total Speed Ranking in the series. Overall since 2021 at non-roval road courses, Chastain’s 6.3 average finish ranks as the 2nd best in the series. At Road America, look for Chastain to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Road America Track History – Last year at Road America, Ross Chastain had a solid showing and ran well throughout the race. In the event, Chastain started 8th, finished 5th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, had a 10.1 average running position and then finished 7th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, Chastain had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking, the 6th best Green Flag Speed and was the 8th Fastest Driver Late In A Run.

Kyle Larson
Road America Fantasy Spin – At Road America, look for Kyle Larson to be a contender. Larson was fast last year, and at Sonoma, the most recent road course visited, Larson looked to have the best car until pit strategy put him back in the field and then later lost a tire. After how that race played out, I wouldn’t be surprised if Larson and the #5 crew are out on a mission to make a statement to avenge how Sonoma played out and get a “W” to dedicate to their crew chief. At COTA this spring in the Next Gen’s Road Course Racing debut, the #5 team was a little lost, but after their strong Sonoma showing (led 26 laps, won Stage #1, best Speed Ranking in segment #1), I wouldn’t read into it. In 2021 at road courses, Larson had 3-wins and minus Daytona RC and Road America where he had problems, Larson had a 1.6 average finish and had a result in the top 3 every race. His 2021 Road Course Total Speed Ranking was the 2nd best.
Road America Track History – Kyle Larson had one of the best cars last year at Road America, but when the checkered flag waved, he finished an asterisk mark 16th. In the race, Larson started 2nd, finished 3rd in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, had a race best 6.7 average running position but then on lap 56 while running in 4th, Larson spun after contact with Bowman and then after that he simply didn’t have his pace anymore and fell back. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 9th overall, but take note his speed over the segments were 3rd, 7th, 7th and then 23rd. His lack of speed following his late spin really skewed all of his other speed analytics for the afternoon.

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