New Hampshire Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at New Hampshire! “The Magic Mile” is a flat one-mile oval that I classify as a “Shorter flat track.” Other shorter flat tracks that I would recommend that you look back to for correlation purposes are Gateway, Phoenix and Richmond. New Hampshire is a relatively quick race and track position is king. It’s just 301 laps with Stages set for 75/185/301.
On Saturday, NASCAR practice was held. Teams only had 20 minutes, and always keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car etc.). Make sure you check out our New Hampshire Practice Notes, New Hampshire Practice Speeds and New Hampshire 5,10,15 and 20 Lap average Speed Cheat Sheet.
Here’s the New Hampshire Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.
New Hampshire Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Martin Truex Jr.
Starts 1st / Projected Finish Range / 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Speed Rankings/ 5 Lap Average – 11th / 10 Lap Average – 8th / 15 Lap Average – 7th
New Hampshire Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. is a super-elite performer at New Hampshire who’ll be tough to beat. Truex has thrived at “The Magic Mile”, but one key attribute I really like about him is how strong he’s been at shorter-flat tracks. In the last two races on this sub-track type, I would argue he’s been the best. At Richmond, Truex led 80 laps but was beat on pit strategy, and at Gateway he led 42 laps and finished 6th (was the leader before a late pit stop under caution but left pit road in 7th). Over the combined races at shorter-flat tracks this year, Truex ranks as the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run, and his Total Speed Ranking is the 5th best. At New Hampshire, Truex has never won, but in 6 of the last 7 races he’s finished between 3rd to 7th. Last year, Truex damaged his car early in the rain (messed up his front splitter) and went on to finish 12th. In the six New Hampshire races prior to that, Truex had a series best 4.7 average finish, a series best 5.6 average running position and he averaged leading 78.8 laps per race. In 2020, Truex finished 2nd in Stage #1, 8th in Stage #2 and then 3rd when the checkered flag waved. During the rain caution while he was running in 3rd around lap 95, a tire got away from the #19 team on pit road and that put Truex to the back of the pack. In 2019, Truex had a solid showing, but once again his race wasn’t incident free. In the race he finished 6th and had a 9.6 average running position. Around lap 145, Clint Bowyer spun and had minor contact with Truex which led to a long pit stop which booted him back to the twenties. In the four New Hampshire races prior to that, Truex had results of 6th, 4th, 5th and 3rd. Following practice, Truex said his car felt close.
DraftKings $10,400 / FanDuel $11,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +800
2) Chase Elliott
Starts 2nd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings/ 5 Lap Average – 5th / 10 Lap Average – 10th
New Hampshire Fantasy Spin – Chase Elliott is hot, and at New Hampshire, I would look for him to keep the good times rolling. Over the last three races heading into the weekend, Elliott has results of 1st, 2nd and 1st. At New Hampshire, Elliott has been solid, but certainly not elite. Since 2017 minus 2019, Elliott has a 10.8 average finish. Last year, Elliott looked like a top five contender, but finished an asterisk mark 18th. In the race, Elliott finished 3rd in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, had an 8.4 average running position, led 53 laps but finished a clunker 18th. Following the Stage #2 caution after just finishing 6th, Elliott had a slow pit stop that dropped him back about 10 positions and he simply wasn’t as competitive back in heavy traffic. In the race, Elliott had the 10th best Total Speed Ranking, but to break that down further over the segments he had speed rankings of 3rd, 3rd, 10th and then 18th. In 2020, Elliott finished 9th, had a 10.9 average running position and had the 9th best Total Speed Ranking. This year at shorter-flat tracks, the #9 has been strong, but his afternoons haven’t always been incident free. Over the combined events, Elliott has been the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and has the 6th best Total Speed Ranking. At Phoenix, Elliott had a 3.9 average running position, had the best Total Speed Ranking and led 50 laps but had multiple problems late. At Richmond, Elliott had a 10.3 average running position, had the 5th best Total Speed Ranking but finished 14th. At Gateway, he finished a clunker 21st after having a run-in with Ross Chastain.
DraftKings $10,300 / FanDuel $13,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +900
Further Recommended Reading: New Hampshire Finish Projections, DraftKings New Hampshire Playability Value Chart, FanDuel New Hampshire Playability Value Chart
3) Kyle Busch
Starts 17th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Speed Rankings/ 5 Lap Average – 2nd / 10 Lap Average – 1st / 15 Lap Average – 1st / 20 Lap Average – 1st
New Hampshire Fantasy Spin – Kyle Busch has back-to-back misleading results at New Hampshire but look for him to be a factor. Busch has proven himself to be elite here in the past, and in 2022 on this sub-track type, he’s been one of the best. At Gateway the most recent shorter-flat track visited, Busch had the best Total Speed Ranking, was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run and finished 2nd. Over the combined races held at shorter-flat tracks this year, Busch has the 2nd best average finish (6.0), the 2nd best average running position (7.3) and the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. At New Hampshire, Busch is a 3-time winner and there’s no question he’s one of the best. Last year at New Hampshire, Busch started on the pole and led the opening 6 laps, but then he crashed in the rain which marked the end of his race. In 2020, I also have no takeaways. In that event on lap 16 while running in 6th, Busch had a flat tire and pounded the wall which led to his last place finish. In the three New Hampshire races prior to that which were incident free for him, Busch had a 3.7 average finish, a 4.0 average running position and averaged leading 113.7 laps per race. In 2019, Busch won Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, finished 8th overall, led a race high 118 laps, had the best Green Flag Average Speed and ranked as the 5th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In 2018, Busch finished 2nd, had a 5th place average running position, earned the 4th best driver rating and led 36 laps. In fall 2017, Busch had a stellar car and won from the pole. Additionally, Busch earned the best driver rating, had a 1st place average running position, earned a near perfect driver rating and led 187 laps. In practice, Busch ranked #1 for 10,15 and 20 lap averages.
DraftKings $11,000 / FanDuel $12,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +700
