Pocono Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Brad Keselowski
Pocono Fantasy Spin – Brad Keselowski is an elite performer at Pocono, but with the current state of the #6 program, you can basically pencil him in as a high-teens to low-twenties performer and forget about all his prior stats.
Pocono Track History – Brad Keselowski is one of the best in the business at Pocono. He’s a former winner who’s finished in the top five 46% of the time and in the top ten 63% of the time. Over the last 13 races, he’s only once finished south of 11th. Last year in race #2, Keselowski finished 3rd in the two opening Stages, finished 3rd when the checkered flag waved, led a race high 31 laps, had the best average running position (8.0), earned the 2nd best driver rating, had the best Total Speed Ranking and was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Last year in race #1, Keselowski finished 10th, had the 9th best Total Speed Ranking and had a 14.8 average running position. In 2020 Race #2, Keselowski finished 11th, had a 9.0 average running position, led 13 laps, had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. Additionally, Keselowski finished 5th in Stage #1 and won Stage #2. I’ll note, Keselowski ran better than his result, but his pit strategy backfired and on lap 136 (4 to go) while running in 3rd he had to come in for a splash of fuel. In the three races prior to that, Keselowski had results of 9th, 8th and 2nd.

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Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Pocono Fantasy Spin – With how 2022 has played out for Ricky Stenhouse Jr., he’s risky at Pocono before you even look at any stats. When you open up the stats, he’s actually been respectable here and since 2016 he’s finished between 11th to 18th in 8 of the 12 races. That said, when you enter in his 2022 form into the equation, I think he’s likely a 20’s performer who has teens upside.
Pocono Track History – Last summer at Pocono in race #2, Stenhouse finished an asterisk mark 38th. In the race he finished 7th in Stage #1, but then in the final Stage on lap 112 while he was running around 10th, the #47 had an engine failure that doomed his race. For the afternoon, Stenhouse had the 20th best Total Speed Ranking with his speed over the first three segments being 9th, 20th and 16th. In Pocono #1 2021, Stenhouse overcame a restart penalty to finish 15th. Additionally, Stenhouse had the 18th best Total Speed Ranking. In 2020, Stenhouse had results of 15th and 17th.

Cole Custer
Pocono Fantasy Spin – Cole Custer finishes in the 20’s nearly every week and at Pocono, you can probably pencil him in for another. Overall, at Pocono minus race #1 2021 where he crashed early, Custer’s “Tricky Triangle” average finish is 20.75.
Pocono Track History – At Pocono in his incident free races, Cole Custer is 4 for 4 at finishing between 16th to 26th. Last year in race #2, Custer started in the rear of the field in a backup car, finished 24th, had a 22.8 average running position and had the 27th best Total Speed Ranking. In race #1 2021, Custer crashed early on lap 14 after having contact with Keselowski which led to him finishing 38th. In 2020 during the double, Custer finished 17th in Race #2 and 16th in race #1. In 2018 when he made a pre-rookie start, Custer came home 26th.

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