Indy Road Course Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at the Indy Road Course! This will mark the 4th road course visited in 2022 with the Next Gen, so make sure you go back and study the previous three. What happened in those three previous races in my opinion, is more important than what happened in the short practice. That said, don’t write off practice by any means. Here’s a look at Speed Analytics from the first three road courses visited (2022 Road Course Total Speed Rankings / Fastest Drivers Late In A Run).
Last year’s inaugural Indy Road Course Race was actually pretty calm, until there was about 15 laps to go and then MEGA MAYHEM ensued. Because of the wild nature of the end, I would point you to the lap 68 running order loop because I think it’s pretty representative of performance.
On Saturday, NASCAR practice was held for Indy. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car etc.). Make sure you check out our Indy Practice Notes, Indy Practice Speeds and Indy 5 and 10 Lap average Speed Cheat Sheet.
Here’s the Indy Road Course Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.
Indy Road Course Race Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Chase Elliott
Start 8th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Practice Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 28th
2022 Road Course Speed Rankings| Total Speed Ranking – 2nd / Speed Late In A Run – 2nd
Indy RC Breakdown – Chase Elliott is the premiere road course racer in NASCAR and at the Indy Road Course, look for the road to victory lane to go thru him. At road courses, Elliott is a 7-time winner and since 2018 minus Sonoma 2019, Daytona RC 2021 and last year’s race at the Charlotte Roval, Elliott has a 2.6 average finish. This year at road courses, Elliott has been one of the best. Over the combined events, Elliott has the 2nd best average finish (4.7), the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and ranks 2nd for Speed Late In A Run. Last year at Indy, Elliott had a great race and “Performance Wise”, I think the #9 was the 2nd best. In the race, Elliott finished 4th, had a 4.8 average running position, had the 2nd best driver rating and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. With 14 laps to go before late cautions and mass mayhem ensued, Elliott was running in 2nd behind Kyle Larson. One attribute you have to love about Elliott is his momentum. Over the last five races heading into the weekend, Elliott has 3 wins and 2 runner-up’s. In practice, Elliott’s 5 lap average was the 28th best. Don’t hit the panic button or read into that too much. I have no doubt the #9 is strong. On Sunday, look for Elliott to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
DraftKings $10,600 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +400
2) Tyler Reddick
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Practice Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 3rd / 10 Lap Averages – 2nd
2022 Road Course Speed Rankings| Total Speed Ranking – 5th / Speed Late In A Run – 3rd
Indy RC Breakdown – At Indy, look for polesitter Tyler Reddick to be a force to be reckoned with. Reddick recently raced his way to victory lane at Road America, and overall, on this track type since Road America 2021 minus Indy 2021 and this year’s Sonoma race, Reddick has a 5.2 average finish. At COTA, Reddick’s one other incident free road course race this year, Reddick finished 5th. In his two incident free races on this track type in 2022, Reddick had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking in both races. Last year at Indy, Reddick was points racing and as a result he won Stage #1, won Stage #2 and led 6 laps. Doing that strategy is good for an overall points day, but it’s not a good strategy to try to win the race. “Performance Wise”, I think Reddick was top ten good if he would’ve just raced “straight up.” In the race, Reddick was the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 9th best Total Speed Ranking. In the race, Reddick was caught up in an overtime wreck and finished 21st as a result. In practice, Reddick had the 3rd best 5 lap average and the 2nd best 10 lap average.
DraftKings $10,000 / FanDuel $12,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +1000
Further Recommended Reading: Indy Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Indy Playability Value Chart, FanDuel Indy Playability Value Chart
3) Ross Chastain
Start 21st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Practice Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 17th
2022 Road Course Speed Rankings| Total Speed Ranking – 1st / Speed Late In A Run – 1st
Indy RC Breakdown – This year at road courses, Ross Chastain has been a super-elite performer and at Indy, you better believe he’ll be a factor. In 2022 on this track type, Chastain has a series best 4.0 average finish, a series best 6.4 average running position, the best driver rating, the best Total Speed Ranking and ranks 3rd for Speed Late In A Run. In the results column, Chastain raced his way to victory lane at COTA, finished 4th at Road America and finished 7th at Sonoma, despite spinning. Last year at Indy, Chastain finished 29th, but that asterisk mark result is the product of him crashing in the “Track Failure Big One.” With 14 laps to go until the scheduled distance and all the late mayhem that ensued, Chastain was running in 13th. His average running position was 16.8 and “Performance Wise”, I would say that represents how he ran. On Sunday, Chastain will start back in 21st. When he won at COTA he started mid-pack in 16th, so his mediocre starting position is really nothing to worry about.
DraftKings $10,400 / FanDuel $13,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +700
