Michigan Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Larson
Michigan Fantasy Spin – At Michigan, I think the road to victory lane will go thru Kyle Larson. Larson hasn’t visited victory lane since February, but that was at Auto Club, the one other big 2.0-mile high-speed intermediate track on the schedule. In 2022 over the combined races at high-speed intermediate tracks (Auto Club, Las Vegas Kansas and Charlotte), Larson has a series best 3.5 average finish, the best driver rating and his Track Type Total Speed Ranking is the 4th best. I view Kansas as the most similar track, and at that venue he finished 2nd, led 29 laps and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. Michigan has been a stellar track for Larson and on Sunday, look for him to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Michigan Track History – Kyle Larson has been elite at Michigan. He’s a three-time winner and currently he has back-to-back 3rd place finishes. Last year, Larson started on the pole, finished 2nd in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, led a race high 70 laps, had a 3.2 average running position, earned the best driver rating and then finished 3rd when the checkered flag waved. I’ll note, Larson did have a hiccup along the way. While leading on lap 158, Larson ran out of fuel. I’ll note, it wasn’t a huge issue, but it certainly didn’t help. In summer 2019 in his next most recent race, Larson finished 3rd and had a 13.3 average running position. In spring 2019, Larson finished 14th, but I thought he was better than his result. He earned the 8th best driver rating and had an 11th place average running position. I’ll note, he spent some time running in the top five and legitimately ran as high as 2nd. I’m just going to chalk up his result to him not closing well. In 2018, Larson had dud results of 17th and 28th. In the four races prior to that, Larson’s results were 1st, 1st, 1st and 3rd.

Kyle Busch
Michigan Fantasy Spin – At Michigan, look for Kyle Busch to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. Michigan has long been a great track for Busch, and in 2022 at high-speed intermediate tracks where there’s correlation, Busch has been fast and has been a contender to win the last three races. In the results column in the last three races on this sub-track type, Busch has results of 4th (Las Vegas), 3rd (Kansas) and 2nd (Charlotte). Of those, I view Kansas to be the single most similar track and at that venue in addition to finishing 3rd, Busch had the best Total Speed Ranking.
Michigan Track History – Kyle Busch is an elite performer at Michigan who currently has nine straight results between 3rd to 10th. Over the last five MIS races, Busch has a 5.4 average finish and he’s 5 for 5 at finishing between 4th to 7th. Last year, Busch finished 9th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking, led 13 laps and then finished 7th when the checkered flag waved. That said, Busch’s afternoon wasn’t incident free. During the competition caution on lap 20, Busch had a long pit stop to repair damage to his nose after early contact with Truex which dropped him back into the 30’s. In 2020 #2, Busch started 16th, but he had no trouble advancing in the running order en route to his 4th place finish. In the race he finished 3rd in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, had a 5.4 average running position, was the fastest driver late in a run and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. In race #1 2020, Busch finished 9th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, had a 6.6 average running position, recorded the 5th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 5th overall. In 2019, Busch had a great season and had results of 5th and 6th. In 2018 his finishes were 3rd and 4th.

Tyler Reddick
Michigan Fantasy Spin – At Michigan, Tyler Reddick has a less than appealing track record but on Sunday, look for him to be a contender. At Auto Club, the other big 2.0-mile oval visited earlier this year, Reddick had the field covered until he had a flat tire and had Byron crash into him. At the other high-speed intermediate tracks visited this year, Reddick has shown speed and has results of 6th (Charlotte), 7th (Las Vegas) and 30th (Kansas, looked like a top five contender until he got into the wall). Over the combined events, Reddick has the 2nd best driver rating and the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. On Sunday, look for Reddick to finish in the top ten and compete for a top five.
Michigan Track History – Tyler Reddick has finished worse in each new Michigan race of his, and I think that trend will end. Last year, Reddick’s race wasn’t incident free, and he finished an asterisk mark 29th. In the race, Reddick finished 8th in Stage #2, had an 11.6 average running position and was running right around 8th until he got loose in front of Joey Logano during a restart on lap 186 which caused a multi-car wreck. That actually wasn’t a huge setback for Reddick, but after he spun on lap 194 while running in 11th and no caution came out you could stick a fork in him. In 2020 #2, Reddick started in the rear of the field in a backup car, had a 17.5 average running position, had the 19th best Total Speed Ranking and finished 24th. In Michigan race #1 2020, Reddick didn’t have an incident free race, but came home 18th. In the race, Reddick made an unexpected pit stop on lap 25 for a tire issue, and then later on lap 143 he had contact with Preece which damaged the #8. The damage didn’t look severe, but it did cause him to start in the rear of the field on Sunday in a backup car.

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