Michigan Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Michigan! Michigan is a gigantic 2.0-mile oval, where the surface is smooth, tire wear is minimal, and horsepower is king. In my opinion, Michigan is perhaps the purest test to see what teams can find speed. Four high-speed intermediate tracks were already visited this year (Track Type Total Speed Rankings), and I wouldn’t overlook any, but I would put special emphasis on studying Kansas. In our similar track guide, I refer to Kansas as a “Mini-Michigan.”
On Saturday, NASCAR practice was held for Michigan. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car etc.). Make sure you check out our Michigan Practice Notes, Michigan Practice Speeds and Michigan 5, 10 and 15 Lap average Speed Cheat Sheet.
Here’s the Michigan Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.
Michigan Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Kyle Busch
Start 3rd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Practice Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 3rd
Michigan Breakdown – At Michigan, look for Kyle Busch to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. Michigan has been a great track for Busch, and in 2022 at high-speed intermediate tracks where there’s correlation, Busch has been fast, and he’s been a contender to win the last three races. In the results column over the last three races on this track type, Busch has results of 4th (Las Vegas), 3rd (Kansas) and 2nd (Charlotte). That’s certainly a great finish trend that hopefully he’ll continue. Also, over those last three races, Busch has the 2nd best driver rating. Of those, I view Kansas to be the single most similar track and at that venue in addition to finishing 3rd, Busch had the best Total Speed Ranking. At Michigan, Busch is a former winner (2011) and currently has nine straight results between 3rd to 10th. Over the last five, Busch has a 5.4 average finish. Last year, Busch finished 9th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking, led 13 laps and then finished 7th when the checkered flag waved. In 2020 during the doubles, Busch had results of 4th and 5th. On Sunday, Kyle Busch is starting in 3rd. This race was won from 3rd last year, and 5 of the last 6 races here have been won from a top 3 starting position.
DraftKings $10,500 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +700
Further Recommended Reading: Michigan Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Michigan Playability Value Chart, FanDuel Michigan Playability Value Chart
2) Kyle Larson
Start 8th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Practice Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 10th
Michigan Breakdown – Kyle Larson is a 2.0-mile master who’ll be tough to beat at Michigan. At MIS, Larson is a three-time winner and currently he has back-to-back 3rd’s here. At Auto Club, the other big 2.0-mile oval on the schedule, Larson raced his way to victory lane there early in the season. This year at high-speed intermediate tracks where there’s correlation, Kyle Larson has been the premiere performer and over the combined races (Auto Club, Las Vegas Kansas and Charlotte), Larson has a series best 3.5 average finish, the best driver rating, the best average running position, ranks 3rd for Speed Late In A Run and his Track Type Total Speed Ranking is the 4th best. I view Kansas as the single most similar track, and at that venue he finished 2nd, led 29 laps and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. Last year at Michigan, Larson finished 2nd in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, led a race high 70 laps, had a 3.2 average running position, earned the best driver rating and then finished 3rd when the checkered flag waved. In summer 2019 in his next most recent race, Larson once again finished 3rd. At Michigan, Larson’s wins were in 2016 #2 and in 2017 he brought out the broom and swept the season.
DraftKings $10,700 / FanDuel $13,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +700
3) Tyler Reddick
Start 7th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Practice Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 6th
Michigan Breakdown – Tyler Reddick is red hot and at Michigan, look for him to be a driver to be reckoned with. In 2022 at high-speed intermediate tracks where there’s correlation, he ranks among the elite. At Auto Club, the other big 2.0-mile oval visited earlier this year, Reddick had the field covered until he had a flat tire and Byron crashed into him. At the other high-speed intermediate tracks visited, Reddick has shown speed and has results of 6th (Charlotte), 7th (Las Vegas) and 30th (Kansas, looked like a top five contender until he got into the wall. Speed rankings of 3rd and 2nd over the first two segments). Over the combined events, Reddick has the 2nd best driver rating and the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. Last year at Michigan, Reddick was easily top ten good, but finished an asterisk mark 29th. In the race, Reddick finished 8th in Stage #2, had an 11.6 average running position and was running right around 8th until he got loose in front of Joey Logano during a restart on lap 186 which caused a multi-car wreck. Then a few laps later he spun, and no caution came out. In 2020, I wouldn’t read into either of his Michigan results. (Race #2 he finished 24th in a backup car, in race #1 he made an unexpected pit stop and had contact with Ryan Preece – 18th).
DraftKings $9,700 / FanDuel $11,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +1200
