Richmond Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be returning to Richmond to race at “The Action Track” for the Federated Auto Parts 400. Richmond is a .75 mile oval that I classify as a “Shorter-Flat Track.” Other shorter-flat tracks visited this year are Phoenix, Gateway and New Hampshire. One differentiator at Richmond from the other shorter-flats is that tire wear is pretty high here, and because of it in long Stages, multiple pit strategies can ensue. This springs race was ultimately determined on tire strategy at the end.
On Saturday, NASCAR practice was held. Teams only had 20 minutes, and always keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car etc.). Make sure you check out our Richmond Practice Notes, Richmond Practice Speeds and 10 Lap Averages and Richmond Practice 5,10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.
Here’s Richmond Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.
Richmond Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Martin Truex Jr.
Start 6th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Practice Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 6th / 10 Lap Average – 4th / 15 Lap Average 4th / 20 Lap Average – 5th / 25 Lap Average – 4th / 30 Lap Average – 4th
Richmond Breakdown – Martin Truex Jr. is the premiere performer at Richmond and on Sunday, there’s no question he’ll be tough to beat in what is probably viewed as a “Must Win Situation” for the #19 team. Truex is a three-time Richmond winner and this spring, I thought Truex should’ve captured his 4th victory. Over the last seven Richmond races, Truex has 3 wins, a 2.4 average finish, a 4.3 average running position, the best driver rating by a wide margin and he’s averaged leading 103.6 laps per race. In April at Richmond, I think Truex had the best car, but victory lane eluded him because of pit strategy from others. In the race, Truex finished 4th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 80 laps, had a race best 3.9 average running position, had the best driver rating and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. Last fall, Truex had a great car and raced his way to victory lane despite essentially starting in the back since he got black flagged right at the start for beating the leader to the green flag. In spring 2021, Truex had a great car, but came home an asterisk mark 5th. In the race, Truex finished 2nd in Stage #1 & 2, led 107 laps, had the best Total Speed Ranking and was the Fastest Driver Late In A Run. On lap 297 during green flag pit stops while he was running in 3rd, Truex was caught speeding on pit road. In the four races prior to that, Truex had results of 2nd, 1st, 1st and 3rd. This year at shorter-flat tracks, I would argue Truex has been the class of the field and over the last three races, he’s subjectively been the best and his average finish over those events is 4.7. At New Hampshire, the most recent shorter-flat track visited, Truex led 172 laps and finished 4th. For the season over the combined races at shorter-flat tracks, Truex has the best Total Speed Ranking and ranks 2nd for Speed Late In A Run. On Sunday, Truex will start in 6th. This spring at Richmiond, Truex started in the same position and of course was subjectively the best. Following practice, Truex said he was happier with his car today than he was in the spring after practice, so you can be confident he’ll be tough to beat.
DraftKings $10,600 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +600
2) Denny Hamlin
Start 3rd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Practice Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 3rd / 10 Lap Average – 5th / 15 Lap Average – 3rd / 20 Lap Average – 3rd / 25 Lap Average – 2nd / 25 Lap Average – 3rd
Richmond Breakdown – At Richmond, look for Denny Hamlin to be tough to beat. Hamlin’s a shorter-flat track master, and a strong case could be made that Richmond’s his best track. At “The Action Track” Hamlin’s a four-time winner and in 11 of the last 13 races he’s finished in the top 6. Over the last three at his home track, Hamlin’s results are 1st, 2nd and 2nd. Over those combined events, Hamlin has a 1.7 average finish, a 3.9 average running position, the best driver rating and he’s averaged leading 136.3 laps per race. This spring en route to victory lane, Hamlin didn’t have the best car, but the #11 car was strong, and they executed pit strategy perfectly. Last year at Richmond, nobody was better than Hamlin. He didn’t reach victory lane, but he went 2 for 2 at finishing 2nd. Last fall, Hamlin won the opening two Stages, led 197 laps, had a 1.8 average running position and finished 2nd when the checkered flag waved. In spring 2021, Hamlin had a phenomenal car, but wasn’t clutch when it counted and during the final restart, Bowman passed him for the lead and ultimately the win. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 207 laps, ran 89 Fastest Laps, had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run. One attribute you have to like about Hamlin is how strong the #11 team is performing. Since New Hampshire minus Indy and you credit him with his Pocono win, Hamlin has a 3.3 average finish and the best driver rating by a healthy margin. When you go back even further, back to Kansas in the spring and minus road courses and the two races where Chastain crashed him while running well (Gateway and Atlanta), then Hamlin has finished in the top 6 every race and has a 3.5 average finish.
DraftKings $11,100 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +600
Recommended Further Reading: Richmond Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Richmond Playability Value Chart, FanDuel Richmond Playability Value Chart
3) Joey Logano
Start 17th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Practice Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 12th / 10 Lap Average – 10th / 15 Lap Average – 9th / 20 Lap Average – 8th / 25 Lap Average – 8th / 25 Lap Average – 6th
Richmond Breakdown – Joey Logano is a two-time winner at Richmond who I think will be a factor. Logano ran great this spring, and if his afternoon would’ve been incident free, Logano would likely have four straight top five finishes at “The Action Track.” Since 2020 minus this spring where he had a misleading result, Logano has a 3.7 average finish and a 3.5 average running position. This spring at Richmond, Logano was a top five contender, but he finished an asterisk mark 17th. In the race, Logano finished 8th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2 but then around lap 260 during a caution under yellow while running in 2nd he had a long pit stop that dropped him back to the teens and then for whatever reason, he never bounced back. Last fall, Logano consistently ran in the top five. In the race he finished 3rd in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, had a 4.9 average running position and finished 5th when the checkered flag waved. In the two races prior to that, Logano had back-to-back 3rd’s. This year at the other shorter-flat tracks visited, Logano finished 8th at Phoenix, won at Gateway and at New Hampshire he was a top ten contender, but pit strategy led to a misleading 24th (6th place average running position). In terms of speed analytics, Logano has the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking and ranks 7th for speed late in a run. Logano’s practice speeds are a little down the charts, but keep in mind he was in group B, and from that group I would argue he was the fastest.
DraftKings $9,300 / FanDuel $10,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +1500
