Daytona Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Kyle Busch
Daytona Fantasy Spin – Kyle Busch will be a risky prospect at Daytona and in 7 of the last 10 races heading into the weekend, he’s finished 20th or worse. When you pair his bad luck with Daytona, I think there’s no doubt trouble could be brewing. At Daytona, Busch is extremely capable of running up front and competing for the win, but bad things happen to him frequently here and in 3 of the last 5 races he’s finished 33rd or worse. That said, Busch ran well in this year’s 500 (6th) and at Talladega, the other big superspeedway he finished 3rd this spring. Overall though, I think Busch is a risky prospect.
Daytona Track History – Kyle Busch has performed at a high-level at Daytona, but things have been quite bad in the results column. Over the last eleven Daytona races, Busch has 2 top tens and 7 results south of 20th. In 3 of the last 5 races here he’s finished 33rd or worse. In this year’s Daytona 500, Busch didn’t have an incident free race but he finished 6th when the checkered flag waved. On lap 62 he was running in 3rd, but then on that very lap he was involved in a multi-car wreck and spun. Last summer, Busch had a great performance but crashed late and finished 34th. In the race he finished 3rd in Stage #1, 8th in Stage #2 but crashed in the closing laps which relegated him to a poor result. In the race, Busch’s 8.9 average running position ranked as the 3rd best and if his race would’ve been incident free, I think he would’ve finished very well. In the 2021 Daytona 500, Busch was running 4th prior to the final pit cycle which was brutal to Toyota’s and then on the final lap prior to his accident he was running in 7th. The “Big One” led to him finishing 14th. In summer 2020, Busch was very competitive but finished a clunker 33rd. In the race, Busch finished 10th in Stage #1, led the 2nd most laps (31), but then with 9 laps to go after he just got passed for the lead, Busch got into the wall hard after contact with Reddick which caused a “Big One.” In the 2020 Daytona 500, Busch was a contender to win, but finished an asterisk mark 34th after developing engine issues late while running near the front. In the race, Busch led 14 laps, finished 2nd in Stage #2 and was leading with 24 laps to go. His engine issues developed with about 18 to go.

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Daniel Suarez
Daytona Fantasy Spin – Daniel Suarez has been a DNF machine at Daytona and in 8 of his 10 starts at this “Wild Card” track he hasn’t been running when the checkered flag waved. In this year’s 500 he was running at the end and that snapped his 7-race DNF streak. In the results column, Daytona has been just as brutal as you would imagine and statistically among venues visited more than twice, this is easily his worst track. Picking Daniel Suarez isn’t for the weak of heart, but he’ll definitely have “Out of sync” potential for either the brave, or those who don’t do their homework.
Daytona Track History – At Daytona, Daniel Suarez has struggled. His all-time best result is 17th, and his overall average finish over ten starts is 29.0. In February in the “Great American Race”, Daniel Suarez had a great day by his tremendously bad standards finishing 18th and having a 21.3 average running position. I’ll note, Suarez was caught speeding on pit road on lap 109, so his race wasn’t completely incident free. Prior to that he was running in the 20’s. Last summer, it looked like Suarez would have his best Daytona result, but on the last lap in the back straightaway while he was running in 3rd he crashed. In last year’s Daytona 500, Daniel Suarez completed just 13 laps before getting caught up in the early “Big One” which led to his 36th place finish. In summer 2020 in the #96, Suarez had one of his better races of the year. In the event he led 19 laps (used pit strategy) and was running in 13th with 16 laps to go before all the late mayhem ensued. Then at the end with 2 laps to go he was caught up in the carnage which led to his 26th place finish. In the 2020 Daytona 500, Suarez missed the race. In the four Daytona races prior to that, Suarez had results of 40th, 33rd, 35th and 37th.

Ty Gibbs
Daytona Fantasy Spin – Ty Gibbs is back piloting the #45 at Daytona and I think it would be hard to trust the young rookie too much. This week, Gibbs won’t even have the benefit of practice (not that it matters too much), and I don’t think the field will trust him too much by default in terms of drafting. This will be a race of him staying in line and taking on dedicated “Wing man” duties for Bubba Wallace.
Daytona Track History – In the Xfinity series, Ty Gibbs only has one start at Daytona under his belt and in February he finished 6th in Stage #1, 7th in Stage #2 and then finished 11th when the checkered flag waved. At Talladega, the other big superspeedway on the schedule he ran well there this spring (2nd in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2) but crashed and finished 35th.

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