Darlington #2 2022 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks
Denny Hamlin
Darlington Fantasy Spin – Denny Hamlin is the defending Darlington Southern 500 champ, and on Sunday night, I wouldn’t be surprised if the road to victory lane goes thru him. At “The Lady In Black”, Hamlin’s a four-time winner who’s finished in the top five 55% of the time and in the top ten 75% of the time. This spring at Darlington, Hamlin looked great and was one of the best, but his afternoon wasn’t incident free. One attribute I like about Hamlin heading into the weekend is how well the #11 team is running. Since Kansas in the spring minus road courses, superspeedways and races where Chastain has crashed him and you credit him with his Pocono win, Hamlin has a 3.6 average finish. On Sunday night, look for Hamlin to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Darlington Track History – Denny Hamlin is a fantasy ace at Darlington who’s almost always a factor. This spring, Hamlin was one of the best, but his afternoon wasn’t incident free and he finished an asterisk mark 21st. In the race, Hamlin started in the rear of the field, finished 7th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, led 42 laps but then in the final Stage his afternoon went south. Hamlin’s pit strategy had him shuffled back to 9th on lap 248 (stayed out on older tires longer than others) and then shortly after that a caution came out and he had a slow stop that dropped him back to 18th. Right after that, Hamlin was caught up in the “Big One” following a restart. In the race, Hamlin was the 6th fastest driver late in a run and his Total Speed Ranking was the 11th best but take note his speed over the segments were 13th, 4th, 2nd and then 28th. In the five races prior to this spring, Hamlin had 2-wins and a 5.0 average finish. Last summer, Hamlin had a great car and raced his way to victory lane in impressive fashion. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, led 146 laps, had a 2.3 average running position, the best driver rating and then of course finished 1st when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and was the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In spring 2021, Hamlin had a great performance. He finished 2nd in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, finished 5th overall, had a 4.3 average running position, was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking.
Chase Elliott
Darlington Fantasy Spin – At Darlington, make sure you put Chase Elliott on your short list of favorites. Elliott’s had some great performances at “The Track Too Tough To Tame” and has come close to victory lane on numerous occasions. Elliott’s had quite a few recent misleading results here, but I have no doubt the regular season champion will be a factor to win. On Sunday, look for Elliott to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Darlington Track History – At Darlington, Chase Elliott has performed at a high-level, but he has a little bit of a hero or zero factor about him. Over the last 8 races, Elliott has four results between 4th to 7th, but then in the other four he’s finished 19th or worse. This spring, Elliott started in the rear of the field in a backup car, finished 14th in Stage #1, 8th in Stage #2 and then finished 5th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Elliott ranked as the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run and his Total Speed Ranking was the 10th best, with his speed over the segments being 20th, 14th. 5th and 6th. Last fall, Elliott had a great car but came home a clunker 31st. In the race, Elliott was a top five contender, but multiple problems contributed to his misleading result. In the race, Elliott started in 4th, but then during the lap 25 competition caution he hit the tire of another team’s tire carrier and that led to a second pit stop which dropped him to the back. When Stage #1 ended, he rebounded back up to 11th. Then in Stage #2 during green flag pit stops when he was in 9th, he messed up coming to pit road and had to make an extra lap around going slowly. When Stage #2 ended, Elliott finished 8th. Then in the final Stage on lap 326 when he was in 7th, he got into the wall hard and brought out the final caution which led to his 31st. In spring 2021, Elliott had a solid showing. In the race he finished 7th, had an 11.1 average running position, was the 10th fastest driver late in a run and had the 12th best Total Speed Ranking. In fall 2020, Elliott was a contender to win, but finished an asterisk mark 20th. In the race, Elliott led 114 laps, had a 5.5 average running position and had the 9th best Total Speed Ranking. With 15 laps to go while leading, Martin Truex Jr. was in the process of passing him and it led to Elliott nailing the wall hard and then fading rapidly over the closing laps. In Darlington #2 2020, Elliott finished 7th in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, led 28 laps but was wrecked right before the rain while running in 2nd which led to his 38th place finish. In race #1 2020, Elliott finished 4th.
Kyle Larson
Darlington Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson’s a super-elite performer at Darlington who’ll be tough to beat. Larson’s never won here, but he’s consistently knocked on the door to victory lane, and over his last four incident free races his results are 2nd, 2nd, 2nd and 3rd. When it comes to managing tire wear, Larson is one of the best in the business and at Auto Club, the only other high-wear intermediate visited this year, Larson raced his way to victory lane. On Sunday night, look for Larson to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win.
Darlington Track History – Kyle Larson has thrived at Darlington, and he’s consistently finished near the front. This spring, Larson was one of the best, but his race wasn’t incident free and he finished last (36th). In the race, Larson led 30 laps early but then on lap 56 while he was battling Kyle Busch for 2nd, he got loose and spun. That is theorized to have damaged his engine and on lap 113 when he rebounded up to 10th after driving up thru the field, his engine blew up. In a post DNF interview, Larson said his car was “super good.” In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 5th. In the four Darlington races prior to that, Larson had a 2.3 average finish, a 4.0 average running position and he’s averaged leading 121 laps per race. Last fall, Larson was stellar. In the race he finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 156 laps, had a 3rd place average running position and then finished 2nd hot on Denny Hamlin’s heels when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 3rd for speed late in a run. In spring 2021, Larson had a great car and late in the race he gave Martin Truex Jr. a run for his money. In the race, Larson started 14th, finished 4th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, ranked as the 2nd fastest driver late in a run and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. What makes Larson’s good run more impressive is that his race wasn’t incident free. During the Stage #1 caution after he just finished 4th he was caught speeding on pit road.
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