Darlington Southern 500 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

On Sunday night, NASCAR will be racing at Darlington! “The Track Too Tough To Tame” will mark race #1 of the 2022 Playoffs. Darlington is a unique track that presents a challenge to the drivers. It’s an egged shaped 1.366 mile oval where tire wear is high, and the driver is a difference maker.

This springs race at Darlington was held during the day. This crown jewel event will be a day to night race, and the track will transition throughout the evening as conditions change.

On Saturday, practice was held for Darlington. Teams only had 20 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Darlington Practice Notes, Darlington Practice Speeds and Darlington 5,10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.

Here’s Darlington Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.

Darlington Full Field Fantasy Rankings

1) Kyle Larson
Start 7th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 10 Lap Average – 5th / 15 Lap Average – 2nd / 20 Lap Average – 1st
Darlington Breakdown – Kyle Larson’s a super-elite performer at Darlington who should prominently be on your fantasy NASCAR radar. Larson’s never won here, but his last four incident free results are 2nd, 2nd, 2nd and 3rd (2.3 average finish over that stretch). This spring, Larson was one of the best, but his afternoon wasn’t incident free, and he finished last (36th). In the race, Larson led 30 laps early but then on lap 56 while he was battling Kyle Busch for 2nd, he got loose and spun. That is theorized to have damaged his engine and on lap 113 when he semi-rebounded back up to 10th, his engine blew up. In an interview following his exit, Larson described his car as “Super Good.” In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 5th. Last fall, the #5 was fast. In the race, Larson finished 2nd in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 156 laps, had a 3rd place average running position and then finished 2nd hot on Denny Hamlin’s heels when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 3rd for speed late in a run. In spring 2021, Larson had a great car and late in the race he gave Martin Truex Jr. a run for his money. In the race, Larson finished 4th in Stage #1, 5th in Stage #2, ranked as the 2nd fastest driver late in a run and had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. What makes Larson’s good run more impressive is that his race wasn’t incident free. During the Stage #1 caution after he just finished 4th, Larson was caught speeding on pit road. In practice, the #5 was fast and Larson had the best 20-lap average. In an interview, Larson said he was really happy with his car.
DraftKings $11,400 / FanDuel $13,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +700 (Saturday evening)

Don’t be a pretender, become a contender and get the ifantasyrace advantage. Join Now! 

2) Denny Hamlin
Start 11th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 10 Lap Average – 6th / 15 Lap Average – 4th / 20 Lap Average – 6th
Darlington Breakdown – Denny Hamlin is a super-elite performer at Darlington who’ll be tough to beat. At “The Lady In Black”, Hamlin’s a four-time winner who’s finished in the top five 55% of the time, in the top ten 75% of the time and it’s also home to his best average finish (7.8). This spring, Hamlin was a standout performer and might’ve just had the best car but he finished an asterisk mark 21st. In the race, Hamlin started in the back but drove up thru the field with ease. In the race, Hamlin finished 7th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, led 42 laps (2nd most) but then in the final Stage his afternoon went south (pit strategy shuffled him back, bad pit stop, crashed). In the race, Hamlin’s Total Speed Ranking was the 11th best, but take note his speed over the segments were 13th, 4th, 2nd (prior to getting damaged) and then 28th. Last fall, Hamlin had a great car and raced his way to victory lane. In the race, Hamlin won Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, led 146 laps, had a 2.3 average running position, the best driver rating and then of course finished 1st when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking and was the 4th Fastest Driver Late In A Run. In spring 2021, Hamlin finished 2nd in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2, finished 5th overall, had a 4.3 average running position, was the 3rd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and had the 3rd best Total Speed Ranking. On Sunday night, the track will be undergoing dynamic changes throughout the evening. I think dealing with that variable is a strong suite for this veteran and the #11 team.
DraftKings $11,100 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +900

Further Recommended Reading = Darlington Finish Projections, DraftKings Darlington Playability Value Chart, FanDuel Darlington Playability Value Chart

3) Joey Logano
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 10 Lap Average – 16th / 15 Lap Average – 15th / 20 Lap Average – 12th
Darlington Breakdown – At Darlington, look for Joey Logano to be tough to beat. Logano had the field covered this spring en route to victory lane, and over the last five races heading into the weekend his average finish is a series best 6.2, but even that underrates him since there’s a misleading result in the mix. This spring, Logano was the class of the field. In the race, Logano won the pole, won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led 107 laps, earned the best driver rating, had a 2.4 average running position, had the best Total Speed Ranking and was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run (should’ve really been #1). Last fall in the Playoff opener, Logano was solid in a race where mayhem was off the charts. In the race, Logano finished 10th in Stage #1, 7th in Stage #2, had a 7.6 average running position, had the 7th best Total Speed Ranking and then finished 8th when the checkered flag waved. In spring 2021, Logano finished 6th in Stage #1, 7th in Stage #2 but finished an asterisk mark 13th. On lap 255 during his final pit stop while he was running in 4th, he was caught speeding on pit road. Additionally, Logano had the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In the two Darlington races prior to that, Logano’s results were 3rd and 6th. On Sunday, Logano will start on the pole, that’s the same position from where he won from this spring.
DraftKings $9,800 / FanDuel $11,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +600