Kansas Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be returning to Kansas for race #2 of the Playoffs. This springs race was pretty wild, when you factor in the added intensity the Playoffs bring to the table, buckle up! Kansas is a smooth 1.5-mile track that has progressive banking that offers drivers multiple grooves, and they can race from the top of the track to the bottom. A sub-group of races I would recommend looking back to are the previous race at Kansas this spring, Las Vegas, Michigan and Charlotte (Total Speed Rankings for that sub-group).
On Saturday, practice was held for Kansas. Teams only had 15 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agenda’s (some want to focus on long runs, some just want to feel out their car, some might focus on qualifying so they can start near the front etc.). Make sure you check out our Kansas Practice Notes and Kansas 5,10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet.
Here’s Kansas Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.
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Kansas Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Kyle Larson
Start 7th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 2 /10 Lap Average – 2 / 15 Lap Average – 3 / 20 Lap Average – 2
Kansas Breakdown – Kyle Larson’s a super-elite performer at Kansas who should prominently be on your short list of favorites. Larson was strong this spring (2nd), and in 2021, the #5 was the strongest car in both races. This year at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks + Michigan where the level of correlation is high, Larson has a series best 5.0 average finish, the 3rd best driver rating and has the 4th best Total Speed Ranking. In terms of results at those tracks, Larson finished 2nd at Las Vegas, 2nd at Kansas, 7th at Michigan and 9th at Charlotte (nearly won until Briscoe brought out the late caution). In the #5 at Kansas, Kyle Larson’s level of performance has been extremely high and over the last three races, Larson has the best driver rating by a wide margin, the best average running position (3.9), he’s averaged leading 97 laps per race and his average finish is a misleading 7.3. This spring, Larson was stout. In the race, Larson finished 2nd, earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 6.3 average running position and led 29 laps. In terms of speed analytics, Larson had the 3rd best Green Flag Speed, the 4th best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 6th for Speed Late In A Run. I’ll note, Larson was actually leading with 10 to go but then he scrubbed the wall and Kurt Busch then passed him. In 2021, nobody really had anything for Larson in either race. Last fall, Larson won Stage #1, finished 3rd in Stage #2, led 130 laps, had a 2.3 average running position, the best Total Speed Ranking and the 2nd best Green Flag Speed. In spring 2021, Larson was stellar and looked to have the race in hand, but late cautions cost him what looked like a certain victory. During the final restart with 2 laps to go, Larson was pushing Blaney and got into the wall, which then tumbled him back in the running order to his 19th place finish. In the race, Larson led 132 laps (49.4% of the race), had a 3.2 average running position, was tied for having the best driver rating and had the best Total Speed Ranking. In terms of speed by segment, Larson ranked 4th, 1st, 1st and then 1st. In practice, Larson liked his car, and he was fast over the course of a run.
DraftKings $10,700 / FanDuel $12,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +700 (Saturday post-qualifying)
Recommended Reading: Kansas Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Kansas Playability Value Chart, FanDuel Kansas Playability Value Chart
2) Denny Hamlin
Start 25th/ Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 16 /10 Lap Average – 13
Kansas Breakdown – Denny Hamlin’s a super-elite performer at Kansas who’ll be tough to beat. Kansas has been a stellar venue for Hamlin, and at tracks where there’s correlation, the #11 team has been fast. Between the high-speed 1.5-mile tracks + Michigan grouping, Hamlin has the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking, having ranked #1 at both Las Vegas and Michigan, which I view as the two most similar tracks. Over the last three races held on this track type, Hamlin has a 2.7 average finish, the best driver rating and he’s the only driver who’s 3 for 3 at finishing in the top five. At Kansas over the last six races, Hamlin has 2 wins and four results in the top 5. This spring, Hamlin was one of the best, despite his race not being incident free. In the race, Hamlin started in the rear of the field, got an equipment interference penalty around lap 35, finished 8th in Stage #2 and then rallied to finish 4th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin was the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run, had the 6th best Green Flag Speed and the 7th best Total Speed Ranking. Last fall, Hamlin finished 5th in Stage #1, 8th in Stage #2, had a 6.9 average running position and then finished 5th when the checkered flag waved. In terms of speed analytics, Hamlin had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking and the 7th best Green Flag Speed. In spring 2021, Hamlin had one of the best cars and was a contender to win, but he finished an asterisk mark 12th. In the race, Hamlin finished 9th in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, had an 8.2 average running position and his Total Speed Ranking was tied for being the 3rd best. On lap 242 while leading, Hamlin got into the wall hard which led to his misleading result. Hamlin wasn’t a standout in practice, but I have no doubt he’ll race well.
DraftKings $11,000 / FanDuel $14,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +1100
3) Tyler Reddick
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Speed Rankings| 5 Lap Average – 1 /10 Lap Average – 1 / 15 Lap Average – 1 / 20 Lap Average – 1
Kansas Breakdown – At Kansas, Tyler Reddick could very well be a driver to be reckoned with. The high line is the fast line around here, and Reddick’s the premiere performer at running that groove right now. This year at 1.5-mile tracks, Reddick looked great at Kansas until he got into the wall, and then in the other two races (at conventional tracks), Reddick has results of 6th (Charlotte) and 7th (Las Vegas). At Kansas, Reddick has a little bit of a hero or zero factor about him. In 3 of his 6 races, he’s finished 25th or worse, and then over his three incident free races his average finish is 9.7. This spring, Reddick was a top five contender but finished a misleading 30th. In the race, Reddick led 24 laps, finished 4th in Stage #1 but then in Stage #2 on lap 113 while he was running in 4th, he had debris on his grill and then slammed into the wall. A few laps later, he slammed into it again which led to an unexpected pit stop which ruined his afternoon. Last fall, Reddick was a top ten contender but finished an asterisk mark 22nd. In the race he finished 10th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2 but then in the final Stage he had a flat tire and slowed on lap 242. At that time, he was running around the mid-teens. In spring 2021, Reddick had a great car and came home in 7th. In the race, Reddick finished 3rd in Stage #1, 8th in Stage #2 and had a 9.7 average running position. In practice, Reddick ranked #1 in terms of average speed rankings ranging from 5 lap averages all the way up to 30 lap averages. Reddick was also quite pleased with how his car performed in practice.
DraftKings $9,800 / FanDuel $11,000 / DK Betting Odds To Win +600
