Talladega Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Kyle Larson
Talladega Fantasy Spin – At Talladega, the odds say something pretty bad is likely going to happen to Kyle Larson. Larson’s had major problems in 5 of his last 7 races here, and since 2018 minus fall 2018 and this spring, Larson’s average finish is 36th. Yes, 36th! This spring, Larson got lucky and had an incident free race, but perhaps he used up all of his Talladega luck for the year! With Talladega being such a trouble spot for Larson, don’t be surprised if he drives in extreme safety mode. At Daytona, the other big superspeedway on the schedule, Larson went 2 for 2 at finishing 32nd or worse this year.
Talladega Track History – Talladega has been like a buzz saw for Kyle Larson in the results department and in 3 of his last 4 races he’s finished 37th or worse. This spring, Kyle Larson had a lucky charm or something and looked great. In the race, Larson finished 2nd in Stage #1, 3rd in Stage #2, led 32 laps, had a race best 4.8 average running position and then finished 4th when the checkered flag waved. Last fall, Larson crashed on lap 56 after contact with Allgaier, and then later on lap 67, the already wounded #5 got into the wall again which led to his 37th. In spring 2021, Larson never even got up to speed and cooked his engine after a packing piece was left in front of his radiator mistakenly (40th). In 2020, Larson missed both races. In 2019, Larson crashed in both events and had results of 24th and 39th. In 2018, Larson finished 11th in the fall but crashed in the spring and finished 40th. In the three Talladega races prior to that he had finishes of 13th, 12th and 6th.

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Daniel Suarez
Talladega Fantasy Spin – If you feel like playing with fire, pick Daniel Suarez. He’ll likely have a ton of out of sync potential because his track record is so bad. Over the last six Talladega races, he’s finished 23rd or worse every race and has a 28.5 average finish. In 2022 over the three combined races at big superspeedways, Daniel Suarez has a 24.3 average finish with a best result of 18th. Daniel Suarez certainly knows how much of a trouble spot this has been for him so it will be interesting to see how he approaches the weekend.
Talladega Track History – Talladega has been brutal to Daniel Suarez and over the last six races his average finish is 28.5. This spring, Suarez showed potential, but as is norm he crashed and finished 31st. In the race, Suarez led 28 laps early but then on lap 90 he was collected in carnage which marked the end of his race. On lap 80, ten laps before his demise he was running in 24th. Last year, Suarez had a pair of 23rd’s for the year. In the three races prior to that, his finishes were 34th, 28th and 32nd.  In his first five Talladega races, Suarez was more successful and his average finish over those events was 14.4.

Cole Custer
Talladega Fantasy Spin – Cole Custer is capable of coming home with a respectable result at Talladega. He’s had a solid finish in 2 of the last 3 races here (top 13 result) and over the seven combined races at big superspeedways since 2021, Custer has a 17.7 average finish and in 5 of the 7 races he’s finished in the top 20. Realistically, I would view him as a high-teens driver who has marginal upside. At Daytona this year, Custer had results of 16th and 20th.
Talladega Track History – Cole Custer has walked away with a solid finish in 2 of the last 3 races here, so he has some dark horse potential. This spring, Custer’s engine blew up and he finished 29th. On lap 92 he was running in 24th, but then on lap 99 it blew up! In 2021 at Talladega, Custer had an 11.5 average finish between the combined events. Last fall, Custer finished 13th and had a 14.8 average running position. In spring 2021, Custer had his best Dega performance and in that race he finished 10th and had a 13.4 average running position. In fall 2020, Custer finished 10th in Stage #1, but finished 31st when the checkered flag waved. On lap 106, Custer was in 10th, but then on lap 107 he was collected in the “Big One.” In spring 2020, Custer finished 8th in Stage #2, but 22nd when the checkered flag waved. With 8 laps to go Custer was running in 12th, but he’s a driver who had to pit for fuel at the end which put him back in the pack. For the afternoon, Custer’s average running position was 12.0.

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