Talladega Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings/ Predictions
On Sunday, NASCAR will be racing at Talladega, so buckle up and bring out the good luck charm. Talladega is NASCAR’s biggest, wildest and most chaotic track on the circuit. If you thought Texas was, you haven’t seen anything yet. Drivers can wreck while leading, and just as easily they can wreck in the back. There’s nowhere safe to hide and the “Big One” is always looming. Another aspect that makes Talladega just a little bit more wild is that 4 of the last 5 races have been won with a last lap pass, so don’t get excited about anything until the checkered flag waves.
All of that said, educated decisions can be made and strategies do exist (AKA… build DFS lineups heavy on place differential) to help you navigate this treacherous track.
No practices were held for Talladega, but they did qualify. Here’s the Talladega Starting Lineup.
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Talladega Full Field Fantasy Rankings
1) Denny Hamlin
Start 3rd / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Talladega Fantasy Spin – Denny Hamlin’s a super-elite performer at Talladega whose always a factor. His mastery of the draft is unparalleled, and there’s no doubt he can get the job done. At Talladega, Hamlin’s a two-time winner and in 5 of the last 8 races he’s finished in the top 7. Over that stretch, Hamlin’s average finish over his five incident free races is 3.8. This spring, Hamlin was at his best in the final quarter of the race when the money was on the line, but he ended up walking away with an asterisk mark result. Hamlin was the leader with 20 to go (led 9 laps) but then with 4 laps to go while running in 8th, Hamlin had some apparent fuel situation and slowed on the track which led to his 18th. “Performance wise”, I have no doubt he likely had one of the best cars. Last fall in the rain shortened event with an abrupt ending, Hamlin finished 7th and led 6 laps. In spring 2021, Hamlin had a great car that I thought was subjectively the best, but he finished an asterisk mark 32nd. In the race, Hamlin led a race high 43 laps (all before lap 92 where he had problems), finished 4th in Stage #1 and was the leader shortly before “Manufacturer pit stops” in Stage #2 where his downfall began. Around lap 92 when he came to pit road, Hamlin was caught speeding. Then when he was serving his penalty, Hamlin was caught speeding again. Then on the last lap of Stage #2, Hamlin crashed. In fall 2020, Hamlin had a stellar showing and raced his way to victory lane after making a last lap pass for the win. In addition to finishing 1st, Hamlin led 26 laps. In spring 2020, Hamlin finished 4th and led 18 laps. In fall 2019, Hamlin finished 3rd. This year at big superspeedways, Hamlin hasn’t had an incident free race yet, but he hasn’t been lacking when it comes to performance. If anything, Hamlin’s due to have an incident free race.
DraftKings $ 10,800/ FanDuel $14,000/ DK Betting Odds To Win +1200
Talladega Projected Finish Ranges, DraftKings Talladega Playability Value Chart, FanDuel Talladega Playability Value Chart
2) Brad Keselowski
Start 18th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium
Talladega Fantasy Spin – Brad Keselowski’s one of the premiere superspeedway performers in NASCAR and at Talladega, you better believe he’ll be a factor. Of the drivers not competing for the championship, I think he has the best odds to keep a Playoff driver outside of victory lane for another week. At Talladega, Keselowski’s a 6-time winner who’s finished in the top five 33.3% of the time and in the top ten 48% of the time. This spring, I think Keselowski likely had a great car but he got a speeding penalty early, and then another late which led to his 23rd. In 2021, nobody was better than Keselowski. Last fall, Keselowski finished 3rd in Stage #1, led 13 laps and then finished 2nd when the checkered flag waved. In spring 2021, Keselowski finished 2nd in Stage #2 and for the afternoon he only led 1 lap, but it was the final one. Also in the race, Keselowski had the best driver rating and the best average running position (8.5). In fall 2020, Keselowski finished 4th in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2, led 6 laps and was running in 2nd with 10 to go before all the late mayhem ensued. Then during overtime, Keselowski was caught up in not one, but two accidents which led to his 18th. In summer 2020, Keselowski had a great car but finished 19th. In the race he finished 7th in Stage #1, 4th in Stage #2 and was in 6th with 3 laps to go but the end played out horribly for him and he dropped like a rock during the late restart.
DraftKings $7,400 / FanDuel $7,800 / DK Betting Odds To Win +2000
3) Ryan Blaney
Start 19th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Talladega Fantasy Spin – Ryan Blaney’s one of the premiere superspeedway performers in NASCAR and at Talladega, put him on your short list of favorites. At Dega since 2019 minus fall 2020 where he crashed in the closing laps, Blaney has 2-wins and an 8.7 average finish. This spring, Blaney was strong. In the race, Blaney led 23 laps, had a 12.1 average running position and then finished 11th. I’ll note, the last Stage went green without a caution and prior to the final pit cycle starting he was running in 2nd. Last fall, Blaney had a strong showing and was better than his 15th. In the race, Blaney finished 6th in Stage #1 and had a 9.8 average running position. Blaney was just back in mid-pack when the race reached its early conclusion. In spring 2021, Blaney finished 2nd in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2, led 11 laps and then finished 9th overall. With 5 laps to go until the scheduled distance, he was running in 2nd. In fall 2020, Blaney was fast but finished a misleading 25th after crashing late. In the race, Blaney led 10 laps, finished 7th in Stage #2, was running in 9th with 2 to go (scheduled distance) but was caught up in a late crash. In spring 2020, Blaney was the class of the field and raced his way to victory lane. In the race he finished 6th in Stage #1, 2nd in Stage #2 and led 63 laps. In fall 2019 en route to victory lane, Blaney finished 10th in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2 and led 35 laps. In 2022 over the three combined races held at big superspeedways, Blaney’s 10.0 average finish is tied for being the 5th best.
DraftKings $10,400 / FanDuel $13,500 / DK Betting Odds To Win +1200
